Where did it all go wrong? Man City crisis leaves Pep wishing for a Christmas miracle

Pep Guardiola only signed a new contract in November to keep him at Manchester City for another two years.

But a month after Guardiola put pen to paper, things have gotten even worse for City on the pitch.

Saturday's 2-1 defeat at Aston Villa means City have now lost nine times in 12 games in all competitions.

While there isn't much talk about Guardiola being under any serious pressure in terms of sacking, he will need a minor miracle after Christmas if City are to salvage anything from the season.

They face a crucial Champions League clash against Paris Saint-Germain in January, while they are far behind in the Premier League title race.

Here we delve into the Opta figures behind City's terrible run.

How bad is it?

City have lost nine of their last twelve matches in all competitions (W1 D2). Comparing that to when the other 'big six' clubs last had such a run of defeats in twelve games, we can see that it was 2023 for Chelsea, 1997 for Tottenham, 1977 for Arsenal, 1961 for Manchester United and 1954 for Manchester United. Liverpool.

To put City's decline into further context, the previous nine defeats in all competitions came in a run of 112 games.

The reigning national champions have already lost nine games in all competitions this season. Only in 2019/20 (12) and 2016/17 (10) have City lost more games in a season under Guardiola. In fact, these campaigns are the only seasons that Guardiola has lost more games as a manager than the 2024/2025 season.

City are winless in five consecutive away games in the Premier League (D1 L4) for the first time under Guardiola, and last failed to win more such games in a row under Manuel Pellegrini in December 2015 (six). They will be happy to be back on their home field when Everton visit the Etihad Stadium on Boxing Day.

Before his seven-match winless streak earlier this season (prior to City's win over Nottingham Forest in early December), Guardiola's previous longest winless streak was six (in the 2016/17 season, his first at City).

9 – Manchester City have lost 9 of their last 12 matches in all competitions (W1 D2). The last time other selected clubs had a run of 9 defeats in 12 games:

Chelsea – 25/05/2023Tottenham – 26/12/1997Arsenal – 23/03/1977Man Utd – 16/12/1961Liverpool – 23/01/1954

Unparalleled. pic.twitter.com/6Ls5Zw6poF

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 21, 2024

Earlier in City's poor run, Guardiola lost four games in a row in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career.

So yeah, it's been bad.

Over the hill?

Much has been made of Kyle Walker's decline in form this season, with the 34-year-old being benched at Villa Park, although he did come on as City looked to turn the tide in their favour.

But Walker is just one of many leading actors who now appear to be well past their prime.

Kevin De Bruyne, 33, is struggling with injuries. Bernardo Silva has played the second-most minutes of any outfielder in Man City's squad since the start of the 2022/2023 Premier League season, but he is now 30. John Stones, who turned 30 in May, is out managed to stay fit consistently. Jack Grealish, Nathan Aké and Manuel Akanji are all 29.

City have eleven players aged 29 or over this season, which is at least two more than any other team in the Premier League (West Ham, nine).

What happens to Haaland?

Erling Haaland has been a goalscoring machine since arriving at City, although there has also always been the underlying suggestion that Guardiola's tactical approach may not be getting the best out of the Norwegian star.

Haaland started the campaign brilliantly. Before October 27, Haaland made 13 appearances in all competitions and scored 14 goals, with an average of one goal every 81 minutes.

He registered 4.8 shots per 90 and 2.8 shots on target per 90, with a shot conversion rate of 23.3%, while having 7.6 touches in the opponent's area.

But since the start of City's miserable run, Haaland has scored just four goals in 11 games. His minutes per goal ratio has fallen to 248, while his expected goals per 90 has fallen from 1.0 to 0.7.

He only manages 3.7 shots per 90 and 1.7 on target, while his shot conversion rate has dropped significantly to 9.8%. Haaland has averaged just six touches per 90 in this series.

Haaland is an increasingly isolated figure, and when City provide him with ammunition he is certainly not firing on all cylinders.

The crux of the matter…

It's probably not wise to pin City's problems on one thing, but it's also fair to say that Rodri's absence has derailed their campaign.

The Ballon d'Or winner has been at the heart of City's dominance in recent seasons. He not only anchored the midfield, but also provided crucial goals in big moments.

Since the start of last season, City have played nineteen Premier League matches without Rodri. They've lost nine.

In that same time, Rodri has played in 36 top-flight games, with City not losing any of those games, so the stats show just how crucial he is.

It's not just Rodri, though. Ruben Dias has also suffered from an injury this season.

City have lost all four league games that Dias has missed this season, while losing just two of the 13 games he has played in and winning eight (61.5%).

With the Portuguese international in the team, their average goals conceded per match is 1.2. Without Dias, City conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game.

What now?

City's title chances are all but over. They are twelve points behind leaders Liverpool and seventh heading into Christmas. The Opta supercomputer only gives them a 0.6% chance of keeping their crown.

They are still expected to finish in the top four, with an overall probability of 76.9%.

City went into last Christmas in fifth place and still recovered to win the title. Under Guardiola, they have only been top on Christmas Day twice (2017/18 and 2020/21), but a comeback seems out of reach this season.

Their Champions League hopes are also on the line ahead of a crucial clash with Paris Saint-Germain. City are ranked 22nd in the 36-team competition, with teams between ninth and 24th qualifying for the play-off round for the knockout stages.

Salford are their opponents in the FA Cup, so it's not like City's hopes are completely over and there is a January transfer window in which they can strengthen their squad.

That said, there is also the lingering uncertainty surrounding the 100-plus charges the Premier League has laid their way. City's case has now been heard and a decision is expected in the new year.

But first and foremost, Guardiola simply has to get back on level terms. Matches against Everton, Leicester City and West Ham provide a good opportunity to do just that.

Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *