Another succession of missed chances, a potentially serious injury to Gabriel Jesus and a grueling shootout defeat at home to an ailing rival. Sunday's FA Cup match against Manchester United could not have gone much worse for Mikel Arteta and Arsenal.
The manner in which the defeat came, just five days after they were beaten 2-0 by Newcastle in similar circumstances in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, further highlighted Arsenal's attacking problems. How did it come to this? Who is to blame? And what should be done next?
How bad is the problem?
Kai Havertz was the main offender on Sunday, spooning a glorious chance over the crossbar in the 88th minute. From almost exactly the same spot he fired a free header wide with Arsenal's best opening against Newcastle. He could only bury his face in the turf afterwards.
Havertz is Arsenal's top scorer with 12 goals in all competitions, but in the last two games he has scored nine shots worth 1.91 expected goals without finding the net.
While his ability to get into the right positions is undoubtedly a positive, his wasteful finishing is a known problem.
Over the past three seasons, Havertz has been one of the Premier League's biggest underachievers in terms of expected goals. He scored almost five fewer than he should have, based on the quality of the chances he has had. Jesus, Arsenal's only other central striker, whose injury makes him even lighter, has put up similar figures.
Havertz, like Jesus at Manchester City, had the same problem at his previous club Chelsea. But the 25-year-old isn't the only one currently struggling in front of goal for Arsenal.
In total, Arsenal generated chances worth 6.44 expected goals against Newcastle and Manchester United and yet found the net just once, through Gabriel Magalhaes' deflected effort on Sunday.
Arteta expressed his disbelief at the result afterwards, as he did against Newcastle, saying it was “unbelievable” they didn't win and adding: “We clearly didn't get what we deserve.”
Overall, he has downplayed Arsenal's need for a sharper attacking surface. For all their recent struggles, he can also point to respectable numbers for the season as a whole. As a team, Arsenal have actually exceeded their expected goals this season.
But those statistics don't tell the whole story. Arsenal are a formidable side in dead-ball situations, but they lack difference makers in open play.
This was the 14th match out of 31 to date in all competitions in which a maximum of one goal was scored. Premier League leaders Liverpool, on the other hand, have played just four of these 29 matches, highlighting the gap in firepower between the two sides.
The loss of Bukayo Saka to injury has exacerbated the problem. Arsenal are also without Ethan Nwaneri, while Jesus looks set for a long spell after being taken off the pitch on Sunday.
But Arsenal's attack looked subpar even before the injuries – the Gunners failed to find the net in eight games in all competitions last season, twice as many as champions Manchester City – which begs the question of why the club did not take action during the summer. .
Summer activities under the microscope
Arsenal's key recruits in the off-season were Mikel Merino and Riccardo Calafiori, with Raheem Sterling arriving later on loan. All three have struggled to make a positive impact, with Merino and Calafiori making just twelve starts each and Sterling just five.
Injuries didn't help. All three have run into trouble, with Calafiori suffering another setback that saw him ruled out on Sunday. But there are question marks hanging over them, regardless of injuries. Were they really what Arsenal needed to get to the next level?
For example, Merino has brought aerial power and the ability to win games to Arsenal's midfield when it was arguably more in need of creativity and goal threat, especially after Emile Smith Rowe was sold to Fulham and Fabio Vieira was able to join Porto on loan.
The club hoped Sterling could bring those qualities to the attack when they seized the opportunity to sign him on loan. But it is damning that Arteta has rarely turned to him, even when fit. Halfway through his spell he played just 146 Premier League minutes.
He will probably be needed now, with Jesus on the wounded list. But like Merino and Calafiori, he has work to do to show he can give Arsenal and Arteta what they need.
Arteta spoke of his 'love' for his players after Sunday's defeat, but it is becoming increasingly clear that the only solutions to their attacking problems lie in the transfer market. The problem is that the January window is much harder to navigate than the summer window.
Is Arteta to blame?
The signings of Merino and Calafiori continue a trend of focusing on defensive recruits under Arteta. The club has used just six attacking midfielders or forwards on a permanent basis since his appointment, compared to 18 defenders, defensive midfielders or goalkeepers.
This partly depends on the circumstances. Arteta inherited a defensive unit in need of a total overhaul, but had far better resources to work with in attack in the form of Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
However, many supporters believe the imbalance is better explained by Arteta's emphasis on the defensive side of the game. Arsenal set a club record for goals scored in the Premier League last season, but reducing risks at the other end is undoubtedly key to the manager's philosophy.
Arteta saw that caution has become a point of contention for many. But he certainly sounded like a man aware of the lack of firepower up front after the Newcastle game.
“That's what you get when you have real quality up front,” he said when asked about Alexander Isak's match-winning impact. It felt like a pointed comment to the club's hierarchy about what he is still missing from his squad.
Arsenal's pursuit of RB Leipzig's Benjamin Sesko shows that Arsenal have looked to strengthen their attack in the summer. Arteta cannot be blamed for the failure to close that deal.
While influential, he is far from the only one responsible for the club's recruitment and squad building. The late sporting director Edu, along with the rest of the club's decision-makers, should also come under scrutiny.
Time to gamble on the market?
Arsenal are active in the transfer market and are ready to act if the right opportunity presents itself. Whether they will do so, however, is another question.
Arteta has stressed how difficult it is to find viable players who can make Arsenal better. “Bringing in bodies doesn't help us at all,” he said last week. “It's about someone who can immediately influence our performance and bring something that we don't have.”
He has a point, of course. There is no point in just signing someone. But all signings come with a risk. Even the 'perfect' player may not have the desired impact. Likewise, you can be rewarded for betting on a seemingly imperfect option.
Liverpool's attack shows why. Diogo Jota, for example, thrived at Anfield despite never scoring more than nine goals in a Premier League season before his move from Wolves.
Darwin Nunez is of course still a long way from justifying his price tag, but Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo, both signed for relatively affordable fees by today's standards, continue to deliver value for money, with the former doing so immediately after his mid-season arrival . in 2022.
Then of course there is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian has proven to be a phenomenal success, but while he was productive in Italy, he was far from a guarantee when he arrived from Roma, having previously failed to impress in the Premier League with Chelsea.
There are lessons for Arsenal there.
They are already paying the price on the pitch for their inability to strengthen in the summer, but they certainly cannot allow another period to pass without taking action – even if that means making concessions on what they can get.
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