Kylian Mbappé's hat-trick against Valladolid took Carlo Ancelotti's team to 49 points. History shows that this is an important figure after 21 games.
After Kylian Mbappe defeated Valladolid with a hat-trick, Real Madrid have a 93% chance of winning LaLiga this season. At least, that's what the historical data suggests.
Why Real Madrid almost won the LaLiga title
It's not a bold claim, but a statistical claim based on past campaigns. In 14 of the 15 seasons in which they had collected 49 points from 21 matches, Madrid won the title.
The only exception was the 2014/2015 season, when Barcelona won the title thanks to a spectacular finish, beating their Clásico rivals by just two points. That's the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record. With 49 points in their pocket and a lead at the top (four points over Atlético Madrid, 10 over Barça, which still has a game in hand), another victory for Carlo Ancelotti's team seems inevitable.
To put things into perspective, the Spanish league is usually won by 84 points, based on the average of the last ten seasons. In fact, the trend is downward: between 2014 and 2017 more than 90 points were needed to win the title, but in two of the last three seasons even 80 points were enough. On average, it takes 84 points to be crowned champion. Madrid is on course to break that barrier.
Real Madrid's expected points total in LaLiga
But if they keep up this pace, they will be on course for almost 90 points and a 37th league title.
The cautionary tale of 2014/15
The only time Madrid did not lift the trophy, with 49 points from 21 games, was in 2014/15, a particularly high-scoring competition.
In other words, eventual winners Barcelona also performed exceptionally well and barely stumbled. With the exception of the last matchday, where nothing was at stake, the Catalans won 12 of the last 13 matches. Madrid did almost enough (92 points), but their eternal rivals did slightly better (94). That season was more about Barcelona's brilliance than Madrid's shortcomings.
How far ahead of Barcelona could Real Madrid finish?
Ancelotti has urged his players not to get carried away (“it takes too long to think it's over”), but in the dressing room the players are finally starting to feel like the best team in the league. The most in shape, the most talented and the most consistent, which should almost certainly lead to a second consecutive LaLiga title.
Original article written by Sergio López, translated with the help of AI and edited by Roddy Cons.
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