Bayer Leverkusen will close the eight-pointed gap on the Bundesliga summit when they welcome leaders Bayern Munich in the Bayarena on Saturday.
Leverkusen, the defending champion, stumbled in their last league match and played a scoreless draw with Wolfsburg, where Vincent Kompany's side stood.
Two goals from Harry Kane and a Leroy Sane Strike deserved Bayern a 3-0 win over Wolfsburg, because they strive to restore their dominance in the German flight.
But the Xabi Alonso team has a considerable advantage on his way to this weekend's collision, after he has automatically qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League.
In the meantime, Bayern was in action on Wednesday and came away with a slim 2-1 advantage compared to Celtic in their Champions League play-off first leg binding.
The OPTA Supercomputer is in favor of Bayern this weekend and gives it a chance of 42.4% to win, while Leverkusen won 32.2% of the simulations led by data.
It also predicts that Kompany Bayern will guide to a 34th Bundesliga title, with 90.3% of the simulations that see the Roten Finish Top. In the meantime, Leverkusen only gets a 9.7% chance to defend their crown.
But Leverkusen has recently had better from this fixture, enjoying an unbeaten run of five games against Bayern in all competitions for the first time (W3 D2).
The last German club that would go longer without losing Bayern was Hamburger from 2007 to 2009 (six games), and Alonso will be happy to keep that record.
After a slow start of the season, Leverkusen won 46 points of their 21 league games, a totally only improved by their title -winning campaign in this phase (55).
However, they have history against them. Because the three points were introduced for a victory, no side has ever made an eight -pointed gap for the leaders after 21 games.
“We know our current position and look forward to the game,” said Leverkusen -midfielder Granit Xhaka.
“It is a special match for the entire country and we have to do our work and see what we get after 90 minutes.
“Even last season, one of our strengths was not to look too much at the rankings.
“We know that we have to beat Bayern to stay in the race and we are not going to get a draw,” he said Omroep Sky.
“It is in our hands to get on the gas and to believe in success,” said Xhaka.
Moreover, Alonso has become the first Bundesliga coach who is unbeaten in his first five competitive matches against Bayern.
He has the best points-per-game average in the history of Bundesliga of every non-bayern coach. Only Kompany itself has a better PPG average in the top flight (2.57).
27 – Xabi Alonso van Leverkusen has remained unbeaten in 27 consecutive Bundesliga Away Games (W20 D7) that are equal to the Bundesliga record for a manager of Udo Lattek (27 from matches from 1985 to 1992). Maestro. pic.twitter.com/ay9dwb28fH
– Optafranz (@Optafranz) 8 February 2025
But Bayern comes to the game with confidence.
They have won each of their last seven league games, their longest winning series in the Bundesliga since between February and September 2020 (14 games).
Bayern also scored a competition-high 65 goals in the Bundesliga this season, although Leverkusen has the second most with 49.
What is made even more impressive on the Kompany side is their ability to perform without important players, with those absent that will return in the coming weeks.
In another intriguing Bundesliga match this weekend, Borussia Dortmund hopes to build on their first victory under new coach Niko Kovac when they visit Bochum.
Dortmund took a huge step in the direction of the last 16 of the Champions League with a 3-0 win over Sporting CP, but it has been in the competition where they struggled.
They are 11th in the rankings on 29 points, seven points on drift of the top four and run the risk of missing the European places together next season.
Indeed, this is the worst Bundesliga season in Dortmund in 10 years in this phase of a campaign (22 points in 2014-15, the last season of Jurgen Klopp).
Their count of 36 goals attributed represents their joint worst defensive record at this stage since 2000 (the same as 2021-22 and 2007-08).
Bvb also collected a joint league-drug four points in 2025 (level with Hoffenheim and Heidenheim) and quickly need victories on the board.
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