Pep Guardiola believes that Manchester City has only 1% chance of overcoming a 3-2 deficiency from the first leg to eliminate Real Madrid from the Champions League on Wednesday.
City goes to the Santiago Bernabeu for the second stage of their knock-out-phase play-off draw this week, on the heels of a 4-0 trust of Newcastle United.
But they have their work in the Spanish capital, after they have wasted 1-0 and 2-1 leads before they lost 3-2 in last week's home leg, whereby Jude Bellingham benefits from a defensive mix to a burden Minute winner for the holders.
It is the fifth time that City has lost the first stage of a knockout of the Champions League, and they were eliminated at each of the four previous occasions.
Madrid has now opened 40 European knockout tires with a win over the first legs, which progressed of 37 of the previous 39.
They only have a head start on the first legs against Odense Boldklub in the UEFA Cup 1994-95 and Ajax in the 2018-19 edition of the Champions League.
“The margin to win in that position in Bernabeu knows that if you ask before the game, the percentage to continue, I don't know, we'll get 1%, or I don't know what,” Guardiola said.
“It will be minimal, but as much if you have a chance, we will try, that's for sure, you know?
“The chance is small because the result was not good. Five minutes earlier, with 2-1, it would be different.
“But with 2-3 the chance is less, but as much if you have a chance, we will take it, and we will see what happens.”
The OPTA Supercomputer assigns the city a chance of 28.6% to the victory in 90 minutes at the Bernabeu, but only a chance of 21.8% to reach the last 16.
The 57 goals of City have admitted this season in all competitions, three more than they appeared in 2023-24, after they have played 20 games less.
Only in 2016-17 (60) did they admit more in one campaign under Guardiola in his first season.
Guardiola believes that the setbacks that City has confronted have also had a mental impact and say: “Listen, there are many, many games that we didn't play the level we play, and in the end we lost it.
“It was not just the three points, it is how it influences our mind for the next game. It has often happened. This season is the reality that we have been miles away.”
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