Liverpool vs Newcastle United has been a fascinating Premier League match over the years.
A certain game, played in April 1996, stalks in memory – Liverpool comes from the top 4-3 above the Kevin Keegan team in Anfield.
The trend has since continued. The reverse match in December was a thriller of six goals, with Fabian Schar saving a point for Newcastle in a 3-3 draw in St James' Park.
There were 33 shots in that match (17 for Newcastle, 16 for Liverpool), with an accumulated 4.08 expected goals.
So expect some fireworks when Newcastle visits Anfield on Wednesday. While the Reds 11 points have risen at the top after Sunday's 2-0 victory in Manchester City, the Magpies are firmly in the hunt for Champions League qualification.
Arne Slot insisted that Liverpool still has a lot of work to do and reporters told: “In any other competition, a management would be very comfortable, except this one.
“We are in a good position, but we also know how difficult it is.
“Now we play Newcastle. We played 3-3 there, which in my opinion was also a good result, but we also experienced how difficult it is.
“We work every day to achieve this, and it is three months of very hard work to keep this. There is no secret. We are 11 points clear, but Arsenal has one game in hand.”
Slot may be careful, but Opta's supercomputer ranks Liverpool's chances of winning the title with no less than 96.7%.
Here we dive into the facts and figures prior to Wednesday's collision.
What is expected?
Since losing their first Premier League home match against Newcastle with 2-0 in April 1994, Liverpool has been unbeaten in their last 28 against the Magpies in Anfield in the competition (W23 D5).
It is safe to say that Newcastle has to make a trend if they want to hinder Liverpool's title costs.
Liverpool looted 64 goals this season, while their 60.23 expected goals (XG) are almost eight free of the next best Chelsea (52.38).
The Reds have had the most shots (452) and shots on Target (173).
Newcastle, on the other hand, bounced back from a 4-0 loss in Manchester City by beating Nottingham Forest with 4-3 on Sunday, although they eventually had to hold on despite the charging of a 4-1 lead in the first half.
The Eddie Howe team has an expected goals against (XGA) figure of 33.59 this term, so that their defense makes the sixth best in the division in that metric. Liverpool, however, has given up the opportunities worth only 24.8 XGA (second behind Arsenal).
When one of these teams starts in winning positions, they have the habit of holding. This season Liverpool has only dropped eight of such points, with Newcastle only dropping seven.
But what does the OPTA super computer predict?
Liverpool came at the top of 59.5% of the data-conducted simulations of the supercomputer. Newcastle has a profit of 20.2%, while the chance of a draw is 20.3%.
Since losing three in a row between January and March 2021, Liverpool has won each of their last 12 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League home games with a total score of 35-6.
Newcastle, on the other hand, also lost 13 of their last 17 Premier League matches on a Wednesday (W2 D2), with their only victories in this run in Bournemouth in July 2020 (4-1) and West Ham in April 2023 (5-1) .
Sensational Salah leads the leadership of Liverpool
Mohamed Salah has been spectacular this season. He scored his 25th competition goal to make Liverpool forward in Man City and then helped Dominik Szoboszlai for the second of the Reds.
Salah scored and helped this season in 11 league games, which extended the Premier League record and became the first player to do this in 11 games in the top five European competitions since Lionel Messi in 2014-15.
Another record -breaking matchday for mo pic.twitter.com/gw6wvxlv9
– Liverpool FC (@LFC) 24 February 2025
He has now scored both a goal and helped in 49 separate league games in his career in Europe's Big Five Leagues. Since Opta have this information available (from 2006-07), only Messi (102) and Cristiano Ronaldo (65) have done this more in those divisions.
The 32-year-old is the first player in the Premier League history who scores and assists in both games against the ruling champions in a season, while he is also the first player in the competition involved in 40+ goals in two different ones seasons. Salah is also the first player to score 25 goals and delivered 15 assists in the same campaign.
He is now on 41 target contributions in the competition this period, only six shy of the competitive record (jointly held by Andrew Cole and Alan Shearer, at 47).
Salah is a home goal away from scoring more than 10 home goals and 10+ road goals in three different Premier League campaigns (also 2017-18 and 2021-22). Before this season, only Harry Kane had ever done this in at least three seasons (2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21 and 2022-23).
With Salah in front, Liverpool does not look to stop; They have their biggest lead in second place since the last day of the 2019-20 campaign (18), when they were last champions.
However, he is not the only threat that Newcastle will be wary.
Szoboszlai also took a goal and an assist in the victory in the Etihad Stadium, and he has a growing influence of an attacking role in midfield.
The Hungarian has created 37 chances in the Premier League, which only stands behind Salah (59) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (49) in Liverpool's team.
Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo have been cut in nine and eight competition goals respectively, and although Darwin Nunez has had his problems, he still has the pace to cause defense problems, even if he does not always have the calm to add the finishing -touch .
Interestingly, NUNEZ is on the same basis this season against his XG in the top flight and, however, scores four goals of 4.01 XG and has missed only four major chances, so perhaps his problems are somewhat exaggerated.
Time to change the story?
Newcastle is Winless in their last 16 Premier League matches against Liverpool (D5 L11) since a 2-0 win in December 2015 under Steve McSclararen.
They were beaten 4-2 in the corresponding match last season, and Anfield is simply not a happy hunting ground.
Newcastle has only won one of their last 27 Premier League matches against parties starting with the day of the table (D8 L18) and beat Chelsea 2-1 in December 2014 under Alan Phartew.
They never won from home against the Premier League table team in 20 attempts (D5 L15).
That said, the team of Howe has both won kick-offs of their last two evening (7 p.m. GMT or later) in the Premier League (2-0 v Manchester United, 3-0 V Wolves), as much as they are in Their previous had 13 prior (D3 L8), so they have a taste of playing under the lights.
The question will be whether they can temper the atmosphere and absorb the pressure – in the will of Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak, the in -form Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes, Newcastle certainly have the talent to form a threat.
Four goalsfour parties pic.twitter.com/kxtyeZLF7D
– Newcastle United (@NUFC) 24 February 2025
However, Liverpool scored at least twice in each of their last 17 home games in all games. The last English top side to have a longer run was Sunderland, who did this in 19 consecutive games between February and December 1935.
So, keeping out Liverpool is easier said than done, and perhaps the best approach to try to fight fire with fire.
Players to watch
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
How can you look beyond Salah at the moment? He scored four goals in his last two Premier League matches against Newcastle, giving a brace in both.
The last player to score several goals in three consecutive performances against an opponent in the competition was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang against Burnley (May 2019), while the only Liverpool player who did this was Michael Owen, who did this four times against Newcastle, Who he played later before, between August 1998 and May 2001.
Newcastle United – Alexander Isak
Isak's Double against Forest brought him to 50 Premier League goals, in only his 76th performance, with only six players who reached the milestone in fewer performances.
He is now also the best -scoring Swede in the history of the competition.
This season, Isak scored 10 away in the Premier League-Alleen Cole (12 in 1993-94) and Shearer (11 in 2001-02) scored more on the road in a single campaign for Newcastle.
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