It has been a season to forget for both Manchester clubs in 2024-25, although the 196th episode of this legendary fixture continues to collect excitement.
Amad Diallo was the Derby Day Hero of Manchester United in December, with his 90th-minute goal that completed a remarkable late turning around to beat outside sorts Manchester City with 2-1 in the Premier League.
Pep Guardiola's side was on course for a much needed three points after the first half of Josko Gvardiol until Amad was polluted in the box by Matheus Nunes, with the United Talisman Bruno Fernandes who came up from 12 meters to convert the resulting Spot kick.
The loot seemed to be shared until the long point of Lisandro Martinez was collected forward by Amad, who over the on-Rushing Or Nomouwon Loft before stopping the ball and Ruben Amorim handed his first big scalp since taking over Old Trafford.
The goal of Amad was only the seventh winner of 90th minute who scored against the ruling Prime Minister League champions, and the second was scored by a United player after Robin van Persie scored against City in December 2012.
But United and Amorim did not build on that famous day in the Etihad Stadium.
Their 1-0 defeat against Nottingham Forest on Tuesday was their 13th of the season so far in the Premier League, their second most in a campaign in the competition, one short of their record of 14 last campaign. They are 13th in the rankings.
Meanwhile, City came out 2-0 winners on Leicester City in the Midweek, so that their hold on a place in the top four was tightened thanks to goals from Jack Grealish-being the first Premier League strike since December 2023 and Omar Marmoush.
The Red Devils have won 80 of their collisions with their rivals in all games to City's 62, with 53 ending in a draw.
But which way will the Sunday collision go? Here we dive in the OPTA data prior to an intriguing meeting at Old Trafford.
What is expected?
United has not lost any of their last three meetings with Man City in all competitions (W2 D1), last a longer run between January 2010 and February 2011 (four).
They also only want to complete their first Premier League-Dubbele about Guardiola's team since 2019-2020, after their 2-1 victory in the Etihad Stadium in December.
But City comes with confidence in the competition. They have won more Premier League matches against United than any other side (nine). Five of their nine wins came under Guardiola, the most visiting manager in the competition.
There is also no such thing as home advantage in the Manchester Derby. The OFF team has won 10 of the last 18 Premier League meetings between the two teams (D2 L6). Since the 2015-16 campaign, the only Top-Flight fixture with more road victories is Crystal Palace versus Liverpool (12).
Despite the recent joy of United in this competition, it is the side of Guardiola that prefer the Opta -Supercomputer this Sunday.
The citizens won 43.8% of the pre-match simulations, while the chance of a united victory had a chance of 30.7%. In the meantime, a draw is at 25.4%.
Can Amorim Guardiola Hat-Trick complete?
The victory of United in the reverse fixture came only 40 days after Amorim led former employers with a CP to a crushing 4-1 victory over the city in the Champions League.
The Red Devils boss only wants to become the third manager who defeated Guardiola in three consecutive meetings, after Jurgen Klopp with Liverpool (twice) and Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in 2020-21.
But Amorim still finds his feet in the United Dugout, with problems on both ends of the field for a large part of his term of office in the Premier League.
In all competitions this season, only Leicester (26) admitted the opening goal in more competitions under all Premier League parties than United (23).
United has also scored only 37 goals from 405 Schoten-that conversion rate of 9.14% is the third worst in the division, after Southampton (7.89) and West Ham United (8.55). Their 28.99% major probability conversion is the second worst in the competition (better than just Southampton-28%).
United has also gone eight Premier League matches in Old Trafford without holding a clean slate, their longest run since a run of 12 between April and December 2021.
They sent 17 goals in nine games under Amorim, with the Portuguese coach admitted the worst goals per game ratio of a permanent Red Devil Manager on the home floor in the Premier League (1.89).
This season, the Red Devils also collected two points in eight Premier League home matches by the day that the day in the Top half (D2 L6) started, scoring five and admitted 19 times in those competitions.
Can City end their way -day struggles on their favorite stamping site?
The overwhelming City campaign is supported by various factors, with different injuries for players from the first team to hinder their progression from a record-expanding fifth Premier League title.
But their recent form away from the Etihad has left a lot to be desired, with that Achilles heel who might go under the radar this season.
Indeed, the citizens have lost six of their last 11 away Premier League matches (W3 D2), just as much as they had combined in their previous 37 matches (W26 D5 L6). In one of the last 13 seasons they have only lost more than six road (seven in 2019-200019).
However, they enjoyed recent trips to Old Trafford and have won more Premier League matches against United than any other side (nine). Five of those victories came under Guardiola, the most visiting manager in the competition.
City has an average of 1.9 goals per competition match this season – that is their lowest per competition average in a season under Guardiola. They also admitted 1.33 goals per match, which is their highest average under the Spaniard.
They also dropped 16 points from winning positions this season in the competition – all their worst total in a season under Guardiola. Their previous worst was 13, set in 2020-21 and 2022-23.
And three of them were torn away in the reverse match against United. The goal of Amad was only the seventh winner of 90th minute who scored against the ruling Prime Minister League champions, and the second decorated by a United player after Robin van Persie V City in December 2012.
Players to watch
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
This season Fernandes is involved in 21 goals at Old Trafford for Man Utd in all competitions (12 goals, nine assists).
If he helps in this game, it is the third time that he has registered both 10+ goals and 10+ assists in a season in the Theater of Dreams (also 2020-21 and 2022-23).
That is more than all other players combined since 1992-93, with only Dwight Yorke in 1998-99 (12G, 10a) and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2006-07 (14g, 11a) who achieve the performance.
Manchester City – Omar Marmoush
In the absence of Erling Haaland, who was directly involved in nine goals in eight performances against United for Man City (six goals, three assists), Marmoush seems to be leading the line during his debut in Manchester Derby.
He took his count to five Premier League objectives against Leicester last time, but he will want to break his scoring duck from home against the brightest rivals of the citizens.
All Premier League of Marmoush Strikes for Man City came to the Etihad, the most outright by each player to score 100% of their goals at home in the competition this period.
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