Sport
Liverpool vs Man City: Stats breakdown as Premier League titans meet at Anfield
Liverpool host reigning champions Manchester City under the Sky cameras on Super Sunday – but what do the stats say about the teams' polarized form?
Liverpool have won 16 of 18 games in all competitions this season, while Manchester City have not won their last six games and lost five – their worst run in more than eight years.
While City's key absences of Ruben Dias and Rodri have been well documented and have led to their defensive weaknesses with 17 goals conceded in the last six games, Guardiola's team have also struggled as an attacking force.
The champions have scored just 22 goals in the Premier League this season – in just one season under Pep, they have scored fewer at this stage of the season (18 after 12 games in 2020/21).
Comparing all nine seasons under Guardiola after 12 games in a Premier League season, City have had more shots in just two seasons than in this season.
The problem seems to be converting those chances, with City having the second-worst goal conversion and the worst expected goals performance at this stage. For the third time in nine seasons, Manchester City has recorded a negative xG performance at this stage of the season.
In terms of individual players, four of the six highest expected goals in the Premier League without scoring this season have come from Manchester City.
Phil Foden is on that list after failing to score in any of his nine Premier League appearances this season – his worst run without a league goal since 15 appearances from May 2019 to March 2020.
The 24-year-old has made 20 shots in the Premier League so far this season, with just two on target. That's the worst shooting accuracy of a player who takes at least fifteen shots.
Last season's PFA and Football Writers' Player of the Year also made a relatively slow start to the last Premier League campaign, scoring just one goal in his first nine appearances. Foden went on to score 18 goals in his last 26 league matches, reaching a career-best 19 Premier League goals for the season.
The difference between the start of last season and this is Foden made a creative contribution at the start of the 2023/24 season with three assists and his only goal. This season he provided just one assist in 551 minutes of playing time.
As the stats show, Foden's expected assists (xA) for this season are higher than after nine appearances last season, suggesting his teammates are failing to put away the chances he creates.
Only seven players have a higher xA than City's number 47 this season, with each of them playing more minutes than Foden.
The man who can usually be guaranteed to finish every chance his Manchester City teammates create, Erling Haaland, is currently in the midst of a Premier League slump by his exceptional standards, having scored just two in his last seven league appearances scored goals. This was after scoring 10 goals in the first five games of the season.
In contrast, Liverpool talisman Mohamed Salah has scored seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances. Although Haaland has had more shots and has a higher xG than the Egyptian in this period, Salah's conversion rate is more than five times better than City's number 9.
Haaland's scoring may have slowed in the Premier League, but the importance of his goals remains. His 12 goals this season have given Manchester City 11 points – by far his best points-per-goal ratio in his three seasons at City.
Overall, his 75 Premier League goals were worth 49 points to his team, giving him a total points per goal of 0.65.
Over the past three seasons, Salah's 47 goals have given Liverpool 36 points, a points-per-goal ratio of 0.77.
Liverpool go into Sunday's match against Manchester City with an advantage of eight or more points over their rivals for the first time since July 2020.
If Arne Slot's team were to win at Anfield, that lead would increase to 11. Only once in the history of the Premier League has a team been 11 or more points behind the leaders after playing the same number of games and overcame deficit to win the title. That was in 1995/96, when Manchester United were 12 points behind leaders Newcastle – after both had played 23 games – and went on to win the title by four points.
If in-form Liverpool are not to achieve victory, Pep Guardiola's team will have to improve offensively and hope that key players such as Haaland and Foden improve their individual performances.