The Numbers Game: Will Slot’s Liverpool prolong Man City’s dreadful run?

Manchester City's season is quickly getting out of their hands.

Pep Guardiola's side were on course to get back on track as they led Feyenoord 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday. Still, it finished 3-3 and the Premier League champions' winless run was extended to six games in all competitions.

City became the first team in Champions League history to lead a match by three goals in the 75th minute and then fail to win.

They failed to win a match in which they led by three goals against Bournemouth in the second tier for the first time in all competitions since May 1989 (3-3), while Guardiola saw a team from the he failed to win a match in which they were three goals ahead.

City have also lost their last three Premier League games, the same amount as in their previous 47 combined (W35 D9). They last lost four consecutive league games between April and August 2008.

According to supercomputer Opta, they now only have a 12.6% chance of retaining the title.

So a trip to Anfield to face Arne Slot's rampant Liverpool – who are eight points clear at the top of the Premier League and defeated Real Madrid 2-0 in the Champions League on Wednesday – is hardly the match Guardiola wanted would have the way he looks. to get City back on course.

Here we see a preview of a huge collision.

What is expected?

Perhaps not since Liverpool's title-winning season in 2019/20 has there been such a gap in form between these two rivals. A win for Liverpool could put them 11 points ahead. In the history of the Premier League, only three teams have overcome a deficit of more than 11 points to win the title (Manchester United in 1992-93 and 1995-96, and Arsenal between 1997 and 1998).

As it stands, Liverpool have a 74.8% chance of winning the title.

So the onus is on City to fix their dismal form, but Opta's supercomputer makes Liverpool the favourites, with a 45.3% chance of winning. City came out on top in 29.9% of data-driven simulations, while the chance of a draw is 24.8%.

The Citizens have won just one of their last 21 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D7 L13), beating them 4-1 in February 2021. They have not won at Anfield with fans in attendance since May 2003 (2-1).

Liverpool have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against City (D5 L3), a 1-0 home win in October 2022.

The away side have won just six of the 54 Premier League meetings between Liverpool and City, the lowest percentage of any match played over 30 times in the competition (11%).

The slot machine continues to pay out

Perhaps only in his wildest dreams could Slot have hoped for such a strong start to his Liverpool career, especially considering the size of the shoes he had to fill at Anfield.

5 – Liverpool become only the fifth team to win their first five games of the UEFA Champions League campaign while conceding no more than one goal, after Milan (92-93), Juventus (04-05), Atlético Madrid (16 – 17) and PSG (17-18). To touch. pic.twitter.com/x6BhZDOUGx

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 27, 2024

The rivalry between Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp has lit up English football over the past eight years, but Slot has quickly made this Liverpool team his own.

This will be Slot's first meeting with both Manchester City and their manager Guardiola. None of Liverpool's last six managers have lost their first league match against the reigning English champions (W4 D2) since Roy Evans' 1-0 defeat to Manchester United in 1993-94.

Liverpool's only Premier League defeat so far this season was a 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield. They have since won seven of their eight league games (D1) and scored at least twice in seven of those matches.

No manager in the history of the Premier League has achieved ten wins in fewer games from the start of his league career than Slot (12 games, level with Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti).

Unlike the rampant attacks of the Klopp era, Liverpool's foundations are built on a strong defense. They have kept more clean sheets (six) than any other team in the top flight this season and have conceded just eight goals (at least four fewer than any other side and nine fewer than Manchester City). Their 10.75 expected goals against (xGA) is also the lowest total in the league.

Not that the Reds' offense wasn't good. Tottenham (27) are the only team to score more goals than Liverpool (24) in the Premier League in 2024-25, while Slot's side have the third-highest xG (23.6) and the most number of big chances (defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player can reasonably be expected to score), with 48.

The big question is how Slot's possession-based system will compare to City's. But so far everything is clicking for the Dutchman.

The boys with the blues

City have not lost four consecutive Premier League games in a season since 2007, when they suffered five consecutive defeats to Blackburn Rovers, Reading, Portsmouth, Wigan Athletic and Chelsea between January and March.

But defeat at Anfield would see them emulate that unwanted piece of history.

5 – Manchester City have not lost four consecutive Premier League games in a season since 2007, when they suffered five consecutive defeats to Blackburn, Reading, Portsmouth, Wigan and Chelsea between January and March. Scratching my head. pic.twitter.com/ktcijn1eLA

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 28, 2024

In his managerial career, Guardiola has only lost more games against Tottenham (nine) than against Liverpool (eight).

He has won just six of his 22 meetings with the Reds (27%), his lowest winning percentage against any side he has faced more than five times in all competitions.

City have won five of their last six Premier League games against teams that started at the top of the table (D1). However, their last such defeat was a 3-1 loss to Liverpool at Anfield in November 2019, with the Reds going on to win the title that season.

Defensively, City was all over the place. Their 15.9 xGA means they average 1.3 xGA per match, while they finished last season in the Premier League with 35.9 xGA (an average of 0.9 per match).

Erling Haaland, despite all his talent, has squandered some big chances, although he is still performing slightly above his xG (12 goals from 11.9 xG). As a team, City are performing 2.4 worse than their xG (22 goals from 24.4 xG).

Guardiola must therefore solve problems in both boxes.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Liverpool-Mohamed Salah

Salah scored twice to help Liverpool to a 3-2 comeback win over Southampton last week and made headlines this week when he claimed after that win at St Mary's that the club had not yet offered him any contract – his current deal is up at the end of the season.

If this is to be Salah's last season at Liverpool, he will do his utmost to perform at a high level. In addition to having the most goals and assists in the Premier League this season (16), Salah's goals were also worth a whopping 17 points in the league against Liverpool this season.

Salah has scored seven times in the league against Manchester City for Liverpool, while he needs just two more top-flight goals at Anfield to reach his 100th for the Reds on their home ground.

Manchester City-Ilkay Gundogan

Three of Gundogan's four Premier League goals against Liverpool came at Anfield, and no City player has scored more against the Reds in the competition's history (Nicolas Anelka also three).

His next appearance will be his 200th in the Premier League, while if Manchester City win here he would become the third player to win as many as 150 of his first 200 games in the competition (currently 149 – Bernardo Silva won 153 and Ederson 151 ). of the first 200).

Gundogan would be only the third German player to reach the milestone of 200 Premier League games, after Robert Huth (322), Dietmar Hamann (268) and Pascal Gross (228).