Somehow Manchester United somehow has a chance to win a new trophy.
Despite escaping in the bottom half of the Premier League, the Red Devils have a foot in the Europa League final after a emphatic 3-0 win over Athletic Bilbao last week.
They now welcome Bilbao, whose iconic San Mames Stadium will organize the final on 21 May in Old Trafford on Thursday.
Ruben Amorim wants to become the first manager to reach a major European final in his first season to lead an English club since Thomas Tuchel with Chelsea in the Champions League 2020-21.
Only one United boss once achieved this performance in his debut season, where Jose Mourinho did this while his team won the 2016-17 Europa League.
“We have to win, and we have to fight to win this competition to give something to our fans and to enter the Champions League,” said Amorim.
The work is of course not done yet and they will first have to ensure that there are no slip-ups of epic proportions.
Here we use Opta insights to view an example of the second stage.
What is expected?
In the five earlier matches between United and Bilbao there have been 22 goals (4.4 per match), with the Red Devils scored 12 and admitting 10.
All five of those competitions have seen at least three goals.
Bilbao has lost seven of their nine earlier road against English parties in all European competitions (W1 D1), although their most recent was a 3-2 victory over United in March 2012 in the Europa League.
United has a 48.5% chance of winning the second stage, according to the OPTA Supercomputer, which ranks the Bilbao profit at 25.7%.
But when it comes to the overall tournamentrognoses, United has a 98% probability to reach the final, and they are also made the favorites to continue and beat Tottenham or Bodo/Glimt in the showpiece in Bilbao.
Amorim's side came out with the trophy in 51% of the tournament forms of the model. Bilbao has only 1% chance of turning this draw and then winning the trophy.
An unstoppable force (only in the Europa League))
United's big victory against 10 men in Bilbao came as a surprise for enough, because they brought one of Laliga's best teams for the sword.
The success of Bilbao under Ernesto Valverde was built on solid foundations this season. They have only admitted 26 goals in Laliga 2024-25, their joint disappointment once after 34 games in the competition in a single season (also 26 in 1984-85).
No team in Laliga has admitted fewer goals this season, while only Atletico Madrid (31.5) has a lower expected goals against (XGA) figure than Bilbao (33.2).
Nevertheless, goals of the first legs of Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes – the last two times Genet – United Kingdom have under control over this draw.
Although there is playing in the bottom half of the Premier League, United this season is unbeaten this season in their 13 Europa League matches (W8 D5), and he could only be the seventh side to reach the competition without losing a match on the road, after Benfica (2013-14), Chelseaal (2018-1911), Eintacht Frankuef, Eintacht),, Eintachtvrankurt),, Eintachtvrankurt),, Eintachte),, Eintachte),, Eintachtgaurt (2019-20-20),, Eintachtight (2019-20-20 )t (2019-20 )t (2019-20-20 )t (2019-20-20 )t (2019-20 )t (2019-20-20-20 )t (Frankurt). (2020), Villarreal (2020-21). Leverkusen (2023-24).
In fact, United has only lost one of their last 30 home games in the Europa League (W23 D6), a 0-1 group phase defeat against Real Sociedad in September 2022.
They have to lose with at least three goals not to come from this draw – the Red Devils have never lost a home game in a European competition with such a margin.
United has scored 31 goals in this season's Europa League – more than any other side. Only in 2002-03 (32) and 2020-21 (34) did they once scored more in a single campaign in a major European competition.
Big demand for Bilbao
In all major European competitions, only one party has ever won the first stage of a two-legged knockout draw from home with 3+ goals and not progresses, with Maccabi Tel Aviv doing this against Olympiakos in the 2023-24 Conference League Last 16 (4-1 away victory, 6-1 home removal after extra time).
Mix that in the above records that United has to their advantage, and it is clear to see that there is a considerable task that Bilbao is confronted with.
They are out to prevent both legs from a knockout draw in the big European competition for the third time, after the quarterfinals of 1967-68 Inter-cities Fairs Cup against Ferencvarosi TC, and the 2017-18 Europa League Last 16 against Marseille.
The men of Valverde also had a huge blow on Wednesday, with the news that both Williams Brothers (Nico and Inaki) and Oihan Sancet will miss the game on Thursday due to injury.
The latter is the fifth athletic player who scores 15+ goals in a single Laara season since 2000-01, after Aritz Aduriz (four times), Fernando Llorente (twice), Raul Garcia (once) and Ismael Urzaiz (once). Sancet also scored twice in the Europa League.
But the Spain International has not recovered from the hamstring problem that loved him from the first stage and will now also sit outside.
He has 17 goals in all competitions, where both Williams Brothers scored 11 each. That means that Bilbao will be without their three most productive players.
Losing both starting wingers can make it difficult for a Bilbao team that likes to play with pace and dynamics. This season Bilbao has forced more shot-ending high turnover than any other side in the Europa League (26), while United is second for this metric (23).
If Bilbao can get the comeback without their star trio, this would certainly fall as their greatest European night.
Players to watch
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
Fernandes will of course be an integral part of the United attack. He has created no fewer than 145 opportunities in all competitions.
Only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (34) and Radamel Falcao (30) have scored more goals in the Europa League than the Portugal International (27 level with Romelu Lukaku), which is also the joint leading assister in the history of the competition (18-level with dry Mertens).
Indeed, only Liverpool's Mohamed Salah (56) has been directly involved in more goals for a Premier League side in all competitions this season than Fernandes (35 – 19 goals, 16 assists).
Athletic Bilbao – Gorka Guruzeta
Bilbao has a large selection ilemma in attack, with Nico Williams, Inaki Williams and Sancet, who have combined to score 39 of their 73 goals in all competitions this season, all absent.
Guruzeta, who was an unused replacement in the first stage, is their fourth productive player with seven goals to his name this campaign.
He also has five assists, which gives him a total of 12 target statements in 29 starts this period.