On the last day of the season, five teams will fight every three left places in the UEFA Champions League next season. Here football writer Alex Keble assesses the contenders – Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest – and their luminaires.
The Premier League has never seen such a last day.
EPL previously has fights for the Wire fights for Champions League places, but only between two clubs fighting for the last place.
This season, five teams, which compete for three places, are separated by only three points, so we set up for an unprecedented afternoon of turns. It will torture for fans of the clubs involved and the use of entertainment for the rest of us.
All five clubs see Champions League qualification as essential. Two of them will not make it and, unless Chelsea finishes sixth and the UEFA Conference League wins on 28 May, one will even miss the UEFA Europa League football.
Man City and Newcastle expect to win their respective matches against Fulham and Everton and secure their places in the top five. They are both clear favorites, who would leave one place for the winner of the last day meeting between Nottingham Forest and Chelsea or Aston Villa, if they can sneak above both parties.
But one day of nervous football and a chaotic live table, everything could frankly happen.
Man City: Guardiola's rebuild demanded Champions League
What they need:
– Draw vs fulham
– or if man loses city, two of their rivals to draw
The way Man City had flown past AFC Bournemouth on Tuesday evening, again confirmed what we already knew: Pep Guardiola never really gets busy.
They have been here before, although perhaps never completely in such a precarious state.
The city is used to challenging titles on the last day. They are not so familiar with fighting for the future direction of the team.
Guardiola has a big task that is preparing the city for a title challenge next season, and that job would become considerably more difficult without the financial windfall of Champions League football, and with the debilitating Thursday-Sunday schedule of the Europa League.
But in all honesty they should be fine.
If they defeat Fulham in Craven Cottage, Man City does not finish lower than third, while a draw will be sufficient to guarantee Champions League qualification (unless Villa Man Utd beats 17 goals).
Fulham has lost 17 consecutive games against Man City in all competitions and has won none of the last 23. You have to return to April 2009 for the last time Fulham has three points against them.
Man City must avoid the defeat and take the first of the three remaining Champions League spots.
It is under the Guardiola side that things are becoming interesting.
Newcastle: one win to take a big step in the direction of the elite
What they need:
– Win vs Everton
– or hope that teams also drop points among them
“Newcastle United deserves to be the top of the Premier League,” said Amanda Staveley, the then director, shortly after the purchase of the club in 2021. “We want to come there. It will take time, but we will come there.”
That dream is only possible with the financial and reputation of the regular Champions League football, and therefore Newcastle are desperate to return to Europe's Elite competition after a season without European competitions.
That is why there is subtly more pressure on Newcastle than anyone else.
Their mission is clear, their task on Sunday the simplest of the party. The only thing that the side of Eddie Howe has to do is defeat Everton in home.
Win, and they get on the ladder again. Draw, and it is probably villa and Chelsea or Forest would climb above them, leaving them outside the top five and undermining all their good work.
Missing Champions League football this season would be their presence in the 2022/23 campaign as a one-off feel. What is more, with four of the “Big Six” clubs of the Premier League that underperform this year, it would feel like a missed opportunity.
But they should do the job.
Newcastle has won their last six Premier League matches. The atmosphere in St James' park will be electric, which means that the team of Howe has to race out of the blocks and blow Everton away.
Yet there is a nagging feeling that the injury of Alexander Isak, fatigue crawls into the team, and the powerful central midfield of Everton could combine to ensure a nervous and frustrating afternoon.
If you want to win titles, these are the kind of pressure that you are dealing with.
Chelsea: qualification required after large editions
What they need:
– Win vs Forest
– or sign versus forest, and Aston Villa Draw
Perhaps none of the five clubs need Champions League qualification, just like Chelsea and Enzo Maresca.
Since the change of ownership in 2022, Chelsea has spent huge sums of money on transfers in an attempt to return to the top of the pile. They still have to be eligible for the Champions League under Blueco.
Chelsea has indeed no longer won the title since 2017 and a maximum of 74 points in the past eight years. Proponents become understandably impatient.
Maresca was sometimes under fire for playing slow possession football, but to finish in the top five, with a European Conference League final that is still coming, would represent a solid debut campaign.
Unfortunately for him, Chelsea is confronted with a very difficult task.
They have to win at Forest to guarantee a place in the Champions League. A draw opens the door to Villa, while the defeat would see the forest standing above them.
And for various reasons, a victory on Sunday does not feel likely.
Forest -fans will create an intimidating atmosphere on the city ground, but more importantly, Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic will oppose a Chelsea attack that Nicolas Jackson misses, especially at home.
This season, Chelsea has the 11th best form in the Premier League and has won only one of their last 11 from Stamford Bridge.
As if that wasn't enough, this season Chelsea won only two of their seven games in which they have loved 65 percent or more of the ball. One of those seven was a 1-1 draw against forest at Stamford Bridge.
Sunday's game follows that pattern. It can also yield the same result.
Aston Villa: This is the time to improve the record at Old Trafford
What they need:
– Win vs Man Utd, and Chelsea or Newcastle do not win
– Win vs Man Utd and Man City lose
– or Losing V Man Utd and Newcastle
Just like Newcastle, villa owners who are extremely ambitious have.
Qualification for the Champions League would offer a financial windfall with which the club can continue to build, while he can help set up Villa as an important player on the European stage.
Given how close Villa came when Matching Paris Saint-Germain in their quarterfinals, Unai Emery might even believe that a second crack in the Champions League could end with the ultimate price.
Certainly, the status of the Superclub will be a real opportunity if Villa can make a habit of the Champions League qualification, especially with Emery at the helm and plans for the expansion of Villa Park in the way.
To make that happen, they need a favor from Everton, Fulham or, most likely, forest. Everything except a Chelsea victory ensures that Villa only has to win at Old Trafford to get to the top five.
But it doesn't matter what Team Ruben Amorim chooses, that's not a fact.
Villa's record in Old Trafford is poor. Supporters hate this trip after they have seen their team there win since 2009. Even last season, when they were 2-0 on Boxing Day, Villa conversed to lose.
Yet they should beat a side that has only collected two points from the last eight Premier League matches.
As long as they do that, Villa will be satisfied, regardless of what happens elsewhere.
To end with a higher points that is than last season, there would be a reason for a party, while the qualification for the Europa League could be a disguised blessing. It is a competition that Emery has won four times before.
Nottingham Forest: Dream is alive – but fans will be happy, whatever happens
What they need:
Win vs Chelsea and Villa or Newcastle Draw
They dropped points at home to still chase the Dogtraid Leicester City forest fans. It cost Champions League qualification from their hands; Even if Forest Chelsea defeated in the head of the head, they need Villa or Newcastle to draw to end in the top five.
The path looks narrowest for Forest and yet, although at an emotional level Champions League football would demonstrably mean more to their fans than one of the other four clubs, are the side of Nuno Espirito Santo under the least edition.
Forest has already won. They are the first team in the history of Premier League that doubles their points from one season to the next, and what happens on Sundays, they will still bring European football to city land for the first time in 30 years.
The 2024/25 season has been an unqualified success, even if they finish seventh and go to the conference competition, a lot that could give a considerable opportunity to win European silverware in 2025/26.
Maybe playing without so much pressure on Sunday will work in favor of Forest. They look stronger in the defense than Chelsea in attack, as we have already covered, and they will enjoy counterattacks in the space behind the high line of Maresca.
Forest does not need the Champions League as much as the others – and that may be the reason why they make it.