Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more insight into the Premier League ahead of Sunday's matches.
Fulham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
When the schedule gets as intense as it is now, shocking results happen.
This seems like the candidate for such a scenario on Super Sunday, where Arsenal can easily upset Sky Bet at 8/15 for many reasons. Looking back over recent seasons, at this time of year when a weekend match follows a midweek fixture, the Gunners have suffered two defeats to Everton, been beaten at Aston Villa and drawn 1-1 with Southampton.
Fulham is a serious team that is having a great season under Marco Silva.
They have won the expected goals battle in 13 of their last 15 games, including against Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa. This shows that Fulham are delivering consistent performances, limiting teams in their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end. That makes them look like a huge prize on the no-bet draw with Sky Bet at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leicester vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm
Happiness is an important part of life – and Ruud van Nistelrooy gets his share of it. Not only has he landed a job in the Premier League by being in the right place at the right time, but he has also somehow managed to win a match of football by two goals despite losing the shot count at 8-31 and the fight with expected goals at 1.67. 3.10.
The thing about luck is that it eventually runs out and I'm struggling to see anything other than a win in Brighton when the Leicester we've seen all season turns up here.
The Foxes have produced 18.14 shots per game in the Premier League – the most of any team as their defense is overworked. Double Brighton to win and make sure they have 16 or more odds at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Ipswich – Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm
An Ipswich centre-back is going to score soon, and I want to follow him when he does. Kieran McKenna has attempted to make Ipswich a bigger threat from set pieces with the arrivals of Dara O'Shea and Jacob Greaves – two very dangerous centre-backs when it comes to attacking set pieces.
It looks like it's working as Town's centre-backs have had 24 shots in succession this season, which equates to an expected goals ratio of 1.89. As the magic wand of Leif Davis' left foot delivers the goods, one arrives.
Both O'Shea and Greaves are 14/1 to score anytime with Sky Bet – some longshots to seriously consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Whether or not Chelsea are in this title race, there is no hiding the fact that they have won 13 of their last 19 Premier League games. This also looks like a great time to play against Tottenham, given the schedule that is making life tough for Ange Postecoglou, who is now under pressure.
An important part of a manager when managing big clubs is rotating the squad to hopefully avoid injuries – some do it better than others. And Spurs are a team that has suffered more injuries and felt more fatigued than others.
This will be their fifth match in fifteen days. It was also an intense series against Man City, Roma, Fulham and Bournemouth.
Chelsea look to be one of the best bets of the weekend for the away win at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Chelsea beat Tottenham (5/4 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Wolves, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
It's going to be hard to sell this bet, but I really like the under 2.5 goals line at 5/4 with Sky Bet. That's despite the fact that these two teams are terrible defensively. Wolves have conceded 2.19 goals per game this calendar year and West Ham have conceded 2.15.
Of the ever-present Premier League teams at that time, we faced the worst two defences.
However, Gary O'Neil said after that defeat at Everton: “I have to find a way to give the group a better chance on Monday night.”
He talked about Wolves not being able to play the starting line at Everton – all four goals came from set pieces. So if you read between the lines, he's basically going to put 11 men behind the ball at the London Stadium and turn on low-block mode to frustrate the Hammers, who won't get any sympathy from a disgruntled fanbase.
It can be a tricky watch, but that's fine if we take advantage of a low-scoring snooze-fest.
Comments