Carlo Ancelotti has admitted Real Madrid will not secure a top eight finish in the Champions League and is prepared for Los Blancos to suffer a play-off draw.
The new Champions League format will see only the top eight teams in the 36-team table automatically progress to the last 16, with the next best 16 players taking part in the play-offs to join them in the new year .
Madrid are doing well in LaLiga and are two points behind leaders Barcelona with a game in hand, but they have lost three of their five games in the Champions League.
They sit 24th in the table ahead of Tuesday's trip to fifth-placed Atalanta. Should they lose in Bergamo, it would be the first time a reigning European Cup/Champions League holder has ever experienced a three-match losing streak in the subsequent campaign.
The Opta supercomputer currently gives Madrid a 5% chance of retaining their Champions League crown, and they only reach the last 16 in 64% of tournament simulations. They are given a 92% chance of participating in the play-offs in the knockout stages.
Ancelotti knows Madrid need a win to allay fears of an early exit and believes a place in the play-offs is the limit of Los Blancos' ambitions.
“There is nothing more at stake than three important points that will help us qualify,” the Italian told a press conference on Monday.
“Unfortunately we will have to play an extra round, but that's it. I have a lot of confidence in my team.
“Things have improved, we are in good momentum now and will continue to improve as we progress.
“Tomorrow's match could be the toughest between now and the end of the year.
“We are concerned about finding a good strategy to beat a very strong opponent like Atalanta, but nothing more.”
Ancelotti expects to play against a much better Atalanta team than the one they beat 2-0 in the UEFA Super Cup in August.
The Europa League champions sit at the top of Serie A and are on a nine-match winning streak in all competitions, including victories over AC Milan, Napoli and Roma.
“Atalanta are doing very well, they have improved a lot from the Super Cup. They are doing well and they are full of enthusiasm, but that gives us the opportunity to go out and prove a point while earning three important points .” Ancelotti said.
“They are a great team, a club that does a spectacular job despite losing many players every summer. They always find ways to adapt and that says a lot about who they are.”
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