The four Spanish teams are currently in varying situations in the Champions League, with three matches remaining in the competition phase. The top eight automatically qualify for the Round of 16, while the teams seeded 9th through 24th participate in the play-off round. The bottom twelve are out of the competition and have no chance of progressing to the Europa League.
The most surprising of all four sides is undoubtedly Real Madrid's precarious position in 24th place as they face a tough trip against Atalanta in Bergamo. Currently sitting at six points, Diario AS say forecasters predict that a total of 8 points will give them a 21% chance of qualifying, and 9 points will give them a 76% chance of getting through. Just four points from their last three games (Salzburg at home and Brest away after Atalanta) will see them through 98% of the time.
Atletico Madrid are currently on 9 points, which means they are almost done and will therefore be looking at the top eight. Projections say that between 15 and 17 points will likely be enough, meaning Atletico will need at least a few wins against Slovan Bratislava, RB Salzburg and Bayer Leverkusen. Barcelona could even progress to the Round of 16 with just three points more against Borussia Dortmund, Benfica and Atalanta – they are currently on 12 points.
Girona is in the least attractive situation. Their Champions League debut so far has yielded just three points against Slovan Bratislava. They would in all likelihood need two heroic wins or five points from their tricky remaining fixture list against Liverpool, AC Milan and Arsenal.
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