The new signature of £ 73.7 million from Manchester United is unlikely that Benjamin Sesko will be their top goalscorer in the Premier League next season.
That is, according to a Premier League -Supercomputer, who has unveiled the stars who will most likely win the Golden Boot – only a few days from the start of the new campaign.
Last year, Mohamed Salah called the home base of the prize and ended the season with 29 goals, six for Alexander Isak with 23 and seven for two -time winner Erling Haaland with 22.
Sesko officially joined the Red Devils with a five -year contract this weekend after he had rejected the interest of Newcastle United, who reportedly offered him more money for his services than United.
Sesko is likely to enter as a central striker in the 3-4-2-1 formation of Ruben Amorim, with Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha in the No. 10 positions and sailing people who take a deeper role in midfield.
The supercomputer, led by Casinohawks, assesses the Slovenia international as the 18th-mast-not-mast player to end the season as the next term of the Premier League, with only a 0.01 percent chance.
After having scored 13 goals in 33 league matches for RB Leipzig during the 2024-25 season, the Sesko's forecast model has XG projection on 8.9 for the upcoming campaign at Old Trafford.
But although the Sesko projections look modest compared to the favorites for the Golden Boot, his arrival brought the chances of new signing sessions Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha further in the pecking order.
The model clearly expects the 22-year-old to be Manchester United's first choice for the campaign, although Captain and teammate Bruno Fernandes is a more likely choice.
Fernandes scored eight league goals last season, but has an XG projection of 10.2 and a chance of 0.04 percent to win the prize.
To calculate the opportunities, a simulation -based approach was used as soon as all players were modeled in the expected goals projections. The projected XG of each player was modeled using data from previous seasons.
From that moment on, 100,000 simulations – where the total goals of each player were generated with the help of a Poisson distribution based on their XG – were used.
Elsewhere, Haaland will now win even more the Golden Boot according to the prediction model.
Haaland gets a chance of 68.3 percent to take his title back from Salah, who now has almost seven times less chance of winning it.
That could be partly until the Africa Cup of Nations, which takes place this season.
Salah will almost certainly travel to the tournament with Egypt, where the tournament runs from December 21, 2025 to January 18, 2026.
If Egypt goes far, Salah could miss at least six league matches for Liverpool – only a shortage of 16 percent of the season.
Alexander Isak now gets the third favorite, a chance of 8.0 percent, for Viktor Gyokeres (4.1 percent), Chris Wood (3.8 percent) and Cole Palmer (1.9 percent).