Our expert in the field of football bets Jones knows that it is back to offer his predictions and insight into the Premier League and to tilt a 5/1 double.
Chelsea vs Fulham, Saturday 12.30 pm
This is one of those luminaires that jumps off the page when you like backing cards. We have a London derby and we are crucial in a matchday for an international break where the card count is climbed historically.
In the last 10 Premier League seasons there were usually 0.64 more yellow cards per competition during the last day of competition before the first international break, compared to the seasonal average.
Last season, for example, the 10 games on MatchDay Three produced 5.6 cards per game. That is a large number.
So why the peak?
Tough, but perhaps players, especially those who want to stay sharp on the edge of their national team, show dedication and impress selectors. And without a club match for two weeks, suspensions feel a little less difficult. So maybe you pack.
The more than 4.5 card line here is 10/11 with Sky Bet and that is a good starting point for building a bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
Manchester United vs Burnley, Saturday 3 p.m. – Play Super 6!
Some prizes scream value, others scream “fall”. Manchester United to beat Burnley to beat 4/11? As MC Hammer ever suggested, this does not touch.
Under Ruben Amorim, United has consistently been an unreliable gambling proposition, especially against each side that can string three passages under pressure. See Grimsby.
Of course, Amorim has generally lost 16 of 29 Premier League matches. That doesn't help.
The name of United alone keeps it false in markets that have been a squat program to exploit in recent years. It is certainly relevant here, because the extensive transfer costs to bring in the new strike power, influence the opportunities of United to win competitions without any evidence to support it. The end can be in the neighborhood for Amorim if he cannot find the answers.
Burnley on the draw, no bet on 11/2 with Sky Bet is a real runner.
Score prediction: 1-2
Sunderland vs Brentford, Saturday 3 p.m.
This has that wonderful mix of ingredients that I long for when I am looking for a lead: a dangerous set-piece side as a Brentford that has a center-back that has a goal.
Even without Thomas Frank, Brentford remains the most effective side in the competition of Dead-Ball situations. The designation hires the set piece in that respect as a manager.
Since the beginning of the 23/24 season, they have been in second place for expected goals of SET documents (33.2) and opened this campaign that already created 1.3 of expected goals from such situations, including scoring one against Bournemouth in midweek.
The set -up is rehearsed and it produces opportunities for the same players every week.
Sepp van den Berg had at least a shot in 14 of his last 16 starts in Center-Back for the bees, with a total of 17 shots in total. At a first target price of 25/1, he is a shameful value for a defender with a clear license to attack. His first goal for Brentford could just be around the corner.
Score prediction: 2-2
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3 pm – Play Super 6!
The Richarlison Redemption movement is not a story that many saw this season.
Thomas Frank is a master in coaching forward players, just look at his oeuvre in Brentford: Ollie Watkins, Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa. Frank has unlocked the Richarlison that we saw in Everton – playing aggressive and looking hungry to make the difference. Of course he scored twice in their last home game with Burnley and the bet here seems to be 9/2 to score first.
Bournemouth under Andoni Iraola wants to press high, pressing for the feet and opponents, but that leaves great holes behind, especially through the middle where their center-backs are encouraged to play aggressively. It will take time to settle in a new defensive rhythm after he has lost Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi. Home Win.
Score prediction: 3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Everton, Saturday 3 p.m. – Play Super 6!
This is a great time of the season for spotting players who have not yet priced the markets completely correctly. And at the moment Jack Grealish is to register an assist exactly that.
Grealisk can be about to cook a storm. In his new role at Everton, the early signs are very positive that he has a huge influence on games. He drove in the left room, just outside the box and Everton feeds the ball over that flank.
The markets still praise Grealish's assist opportunities as if he was stuck in his Manchester City mode, where he was instructed to cut in, recycle the ball and make the safe game. But with Everton, under a more direct and counter -attacking system, he plays with much more verticality and is a creative force – as evidenced by his two assists last weekend against Brighton and three chances that were created in midweek against Mansfield.
He is 7/2 with Sky Bet to get another one in a very profitable game for the Toffees.
Score prediction: 1-2
Leeds United vs Newcastle United, Saturday 5.30 pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!
One of the early trends to set up a lot of weight is promoted teams that are very difficult to beat at home.
Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester won only six home games between them in the last campaign, but Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are three of three so far. The atmosphere, energy and excitement in the early season mean that places such as Elland Road are terrible places for opposition teams to play. Everton discovered that on the opening day.
And, let's call it as it is: no Alexander Isak, no Anthony Gordon and no proven striker means the chance of no goals for Newcastle is live. Strip the strikers away, throw in a midfield is missing without Joelinton and Sandro Tonali, and Leeds has a fantastic opportunity to register a maximum points. The home win on 12/5 with Sky Bet deserves respect.
Score prediction: 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City, Sunday 2 pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!
The market looks completely over the head of a new part of Erling Haaland that might explode. His head goals figures.
Of his 87 Premier League strikes, there have been 15 headers, but that metric will increase based on the new stylistic approach of the city in the last third part. It was clear from the start of the game that the recording of Tijjani Reijnders has added directness to what the city is doing now.
The city did not return in search of options, they wanted to hit Haaland in the area with early crosses.
Haaland is 6ft 4 in remembered and built as an Olympic discus thrower – it is suitable for this style. This season he recorded five main shots in his two games and there is a main goal on the road. Timing is everything, so now jump 9/2 with sky bet for Haaland to score a header, can be a wise movement.
Score prediction: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United, Sunday 2 pm, live on Sky Sports
The competition day for the first international break always gets hard.
Just as the season momentum collects, we are again hit by the prospect of England versus Andorra. Sigh.
An interesting gambling corner that develops in this last matchday before an international break is that the target average goes up when analyzing the seasonal average.
In the last six seasons on the matchday before the first international break, the goals per game average are 3.3, of a sample size of 60 games. If you compare that figure with the average goals per match in those six seasons in the Premier League, which is 2.8, we see 0.5 more goals per match in this matchday. A huge difference in a low scoring sport such as football.
That makes the more than 2.5 goals line here at Evens with Sky Bet. After he has viewed West Ham in all three games so far this season, Forest was only able to free up this line. The hammers have admitted 11 goals and there seem to be no signs of Graham Potter that goes back to the base to tackle the clear problem.
Score forecast: 3-1 | Jones Knows' Best bet: More than 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30 pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6!
Ask yourself: would Arne Slot and Mikel Arteta now take a draw? The answer is yes, right? Categorically.
That makes the trek a huge runner from GOK's point of view.
It is very unusual to have a fixture play before Gameweek four with two title rivals. Looking at the trends in the past when we look at this kind of fixture that is played early in the season, draws are very common.
The last five games in the Premier League before Gameweek Four that were played between teams that ended that season in the top three, all ended in stalemate – of which the most recent Arsenal's was 2-2 with Manchester City last season.
The draw here is the bet on 23/10 with Sky Bet. It is the bet of the weekend.
Score prediction: 1-1 | Jones Knows' Best Bet: Back the Draw (23/10 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 7 pm, live on Sky Sports
If you need some proof of why Oliver Glasner is such an incredible manager, just look at his record against Unai Emery, which is demonstrably considered the best pound-for-pound manager in Europe.
Glasner has won four of the last five meetings with Emery with the total score that a good 17-4 reads in favor of the Austrian.
Emery has just found no way to break down the middle-to-run block of Palace and Glasner's tactics to use the pace and power of Ismaila Sarr is so dangerous.
SARR has been phenomenal in these luminaires and registered seven targets in his last three performances against Villa. That included two goals and an assist in the 3-0 FA Cup semi-final victory. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to score or to help again.