Losing to Manchester City is becoming increasingly common and for the seventh time in the space of ten games, Pep Guardiola's side tasted defeat as they went down 2-0 to Juventus on Wednesday.
City looked jaded as they tried to drag themselves back into contention in Turin, with Dusan Vlahovic and Weston McKennie doing the damage for Juve.
Next up is the Manchester derby on Sunday, with Manchester United making the short trip across the city to the Etihad Stadium.
After back-to-back league defeats and the unexpected departure of sporting director Dan Ashworth, United claimed a morale-boosting 2-1 comeback victory over Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League on Thursday with Rasmus Hojlund the hero.
But this derby is one that features two teams that are out of their league and in dire need of a Premier League win.
What is expected?
Despite all their shortcomings of late, City are still predicted to come out on top.
Pep Guardiola's team won 57% of data-driven simulations from Opta's supercomputer, giving United a 22.2% chance of winning. The chance of a draw is 20.8%.
According to the same model, City have only a 3.8% chance of retaining the title. The supercomputer also predicts a bottom half finish for United, who sit in 13th place heading into the weekend. That's how bad this season is turning out for these teams.
United have lost 20 Premier League games against City – only against Arsenal (21) have they lost more in the league.
The Red Devils have lost each of their last three away Premier League games against City, conceding 13 goals. They last lost four consecutive league visits to their neighbors between 1952 and 1955.
City have won five of their last six Premier League games against United (L1), more than in their previous thirteen (W4 D3 L6).
However, United defeated City in the FA Cup final last season, in the match that earned Erik ten Hag a stay of execution.
More leaks than a tap
For all of City's scintillating attacking play under Guardiola, their success has also been built on solid defensive foundations. But that solidity has failed them since their bad spell started at the end of October.
City have conceded at least twice in seven of their last 11 Premier League games (W4 D3 L4), as many as in their previous 62 games in the competition.
Only three teams (Southampton, Chelsea and Ipswich Town) have made more mistakes leading to shots than City in the Premier League this season, while their 21.6 expected goals against (xGA) ranks 10th in the league and higher than that of Bournemouth. Fulham and Everton.
The absence of Ruben Dias has not helped. City have lost all three league games he has missed this season, while they have lost just one of the 12 games he has played in, winning eight of them (66.7%).
With the Portuguese international in the team, their average goals conceded per match is 1.1. Without Dias, City conceded an average of 2.7 goals per game.
Dias isn't as important as Rodri clearly is, but having him back should help, even if it didn't do much good against Juve.
Amorim's good omens?
The last time United lost three league matches in a row within one season was in December 2015 under Louis van Gaal.
New boss Ruben Amorim has lost less than three during his top-level career, and this is his 172nd match of this kind.
Amorim has, of course, already beaten City this season, with his Sporting CP team winning 4-1 in the Champions League in November, not long after the Portuguese was confirmed as United's new boss.
Only one manager has beaten the reigning Premier League champions with two different teams in one season. Alan Pardew defeated Man City with both Newcastle United and Crystal Palace in 2014/15.
3 – Ruben Amorim becomes the third Manchester United manager to win both of his first two games in major European competition and take charge of the club, joining Matt Busby and Alex Ferguson. Valued. pic.twitter.com/pxqeFQdkef
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 12, 2024
One area Amorim needs to fix is United's defense. They were vulnerable to such situations in their defeats to Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, and City will certainly look to address that vulnerability.
39% of United's goals conceded in the Premier League this season have come from corner situations (7/18), the highest proportion in the division. So far in 2024 they have conceded 15 goals from corners, just three fewer than in 2021 (eight), 2022 (four) and 2023 (six) combined.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City – Erling Haaland
Haaland was involved in nine goals in just four Premier League appearances against United (six goals, three assists).
It is already the most goals scored by a City player against the Red Devils in the competition.
Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes
After registering just two goals (two assists) in his nine Premier League games under Ten Hag this season, Fernandes has had six in his last six (three goals, three assists) following the Dutchman's departure.
The Portugal international has also been involved in five goals in his last six games against City in all competitions (two goals, two assists), providing an assist in each of the last three.
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