🔴 Why the 3-4-3 system of Amorim can produce results 🔴 but analysts say that the system is the least suitable for coaching: transition under underestimated is the time and patience to succeed?
When Arsenal visits Manchester United on Sunday, this is two years to the day that Mikel Arteta was last confronted with a Ruben Amorim side of home. Amorim's Sport would dump Arsenal from the Champions League over two legs.
It was an impressive achievement, achieved against the chance that Sporting's turnover at the time was less than a third of Arsenal's. It was also earned, a smart version for three and a half hours of football, which won the draw on penalties.
“Our players were very smart,” said Amorim of the 2-2 draw in Lisbon. Arteta regretted the implementation, determined to learn lessons. “It is not worth playing the balls we played, especially to a team that wants to press the way they did,” he said.
But sporting, playing Amorim's trademark 3-4-3, won in the Emirates Stadium, creating more opportunities, despite completing the game with 10 players after Manuel Ugarte was sent in extra time. From a tactical point of view, the system of Amorim de Gunners had confused.
The full-backs of Arsenal were lured to places they didn't want to go, Francisco Trincao and Marcus Edwards, now from Burnley, Outfox with Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko. Ricardo Esgaio, now 31 and still unapped, destroyed destruction of the right wing.
It turned into an “open transition game that we didn't want to play” complained Arteta afterwards. “We didn't have the capacity to dominate the game and take the game where we want it.” Jose Mourinho sent a congratulation text to Amorim in the aftermath.
Can the system ever work in England?
Who are all worth mentioning, given that two years later, while Amorim has difficulty pressing his ideas on Old Trafford, it is not only the Portuguese coach that is criticized, but also the formation itself. Some experts have reserved, others pure horror.
“It's a special system,” said Gary Neville. Stephen Warnock is more emphatic on Sky Sports News. “I don't like the system. I don't think it works.” Jamie O'hara? “I don't think it will ever work. I just don't think that formation works in the Premier League.”
It is true that Chelsea from Antonio Conte is the only team that the Premier League title wins in this way. It is also true that no Premier League -Titel favorites have ever played in this way – so the system could be said that it has delivered a title than expected.
There is perhaps an argument that the increased physicality of the Premier League makes it more challenging for wing backs to patrol a whole flank. The reputation of 3-4-3 in English football is in the first place that of a system to suppress, comprehend and prevent.
That vision is even supported by the proof of Amorim's few successes since taking over United. The better efforts have come in those games where the responsibility was not for them to 'make' the game – away against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
Beyond these coasts it is not completely seen in the same way. Reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen have accepted a back three this season. The only team that they defeat, chase a historical title with the help of a variation of a 3-4-3 formation last season.
Amorim's own sport had no problem dominating games that play in this way. In fact, they have the only 100 percent home record in Europe's six strongest competitions last season. Changing United into an Ersatz sport is much more difficult than some thought.
But maybe not with these players …
When Manchester United was defeated on Boxing Day by a wolf side rooted in the relegation zone, both teams played exactly the same formation. Amorim noticed the most important difference. “Their team was built for this system,” he then noticed.
The same could be said of Crystal Palace when they came to Old Trafford and left with the three points. Tyrick Mitchell and Daniel Munoz showed how to play the wing-back role. Jean-Philippe Mateta played in the front. It was Kobbie Mainoo who started there for United.
Both wolves and Palace had natural wing backs and wide forwards comfortable when it went in. United didn't. “You ask for specialists in the entire team,” said Neville of the 3-4-3. “It is not like other systems that are something forgiving.”
Amorim has sustained and not even averted his plan. At home at Brighton in January, 3-1 down and chased the match, he still did not throw an attacker. “If I do that, it will be harder for them to understand how we play,” he reasoned afterwards.
There were people at Old Trafford who expected on the scale of this problem. Perhaps even Amorim himself, who was certainly preferred to the track last summer or next. Some acknowledged that it would be more complicated than just hiring the best available coach.
There are data analysis companies that marked these problems at the time – and since then. The Plaier company, powered by artificial intelligence, is used by multiple Premier League clubs to assess the balance of their squadrons and the required improvements.
They identified 3-4-3 as one of the formations that are the least suitable for the composition of the United Squad, who predicted the challenges. As recently as the match against Everton, their simulations ranked 3-4-3 as only the eighth most effective formation to get a result.
That is only one company. What about coach Inside's analysts, used by clubs to specifically assess specific potential coaches and their ability to fit within their organization. They predicted the relatively seamless transition from Liverpool from Jurgen Klopp to Arne Slot.
This season there is a compatibility of 85 percent between the style of football that is assumed last season and that of Klopp. The compatibility assessment between Amorim and predecessor Erik ten Hag, on the other hand, has been reduced by a measly 30 percent.
“The thing is with the managers and the styles, it's not as if they have arrived and they have similar styles,” Harry Maguire told Sky Sports. “They are the total opposite in terms of what they want and what they demand. So the transition period becomes difficult.”
Of course the circumstances at the two clubs were quite different. In United, in contrast to Klopp, Ten Hag was fired. Continuity was not desirable. The aim of the new United leadership team was to disturb to change the process of the entire football club.
A new formation that is not suitable for players who have been acquired at large costs? All part of the costs of hiring Europe's next big thing. But even the more careful – the now left than Ashworth reportedly among them – it might not have expected that it is so difficult.
In Amorim's native country Portugal, speaking with a range of his colleague coaches there, sympathy is the overwhelming sentiment. But there is also frustration. A feeling that management is not only about printing ideas, but getting most of what is available.
Such as an experienced Portuguese coach, who has confronted with Amorim many times, everyone can start to think to the fridge that they want to eat an omelette, but if you look in that fridge and notice that there are no eggs, do you really continue with your plans?
Another indicates that although United's profile is higher than other clubs, this situation is not that rare. Porto has just accepted Martin Anselmi, switched to 3-4-3 and is struggling. Sporting left Amorim's 3-4-3 for 4-4-2 and the results fell alarmingly.
Will Amorim have time to repair it?
It takes time and transfers to adjust. They still have players who are dedicated in those specialized wing-back roles. They have Matthijs de Ligt – a summer signature, remember – admirable in a broader role. Bruno Fernandes notices that he is being shifted.
Already united supporters will wonder whether there are the will or means to commit to the changes needed to reconstruct this team in the image of Amorim. Can a club of this size really bet on this 40-year-old coach from Portugal, how good is considered good?
Sir Alex Ferguson needed years to get it right, that's true. But that was two generations ago. In 2012, the sustainability of a Premier League manager was four years old. They have now fallen under two. Amorim has had one window, but he may need much more.
Ralf Rangnick called for open -heart surgery and that has never been so clear – but United will be wary of killing the patient. What is clear is that Amorim's comments about Arteta when they first met for the first time in 2023, now feel more relevant than ever.
“Arteta is an example because he was able to resist the pressure, which is unbearable for a team in the Premier League. Now he is bearing the fruits. It is important for fans to understand that to pick up the fruits of your work, you have to wait.”
The question is whether this is worth waiting for United.