It is proof of the importance of Bukayo Saka for Arsenal that even after three months he will remain their leading supplier of goals after three months and helps this season.
His combined total of 22 in 24 performances in all competitions, before his hamstring tear in the 5-1 victory over Crystal Palace in December, still has three free from another player.
Even in the context of Arsenal's struggles in the first months of the campaign, Saka placed the best number of his career. His average of 1.08 target statements per 90 minutes only places him behind Mohamed Salah under Premier League players this season.
The statistics are a memory of how much Arsenal has missed him how much they can be won, three months later, the 23-year-old teases his return to action on social media with a radiant smile and thumb up in training.
Saka's injury a turning point?
Saka is not the only Arsenal attacker who is sidelined this season. Martin Odegaard missed three months with an ankle problem in September. Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz had ended their campaigns by knee injuries in January and February. Gabriel Martinelli has just returned from a hamstring problem.
Cumulative took the injuries a heavy toll. But there is no doubt that Sakas was the most impactful. In the night he stopped against Palace in Selhurst Park, Arsenal had reduced the gorge to Liverpool to three points. Since then it has been widened to 12 points.
At the time of his injury, Saka had scored or set up 40 percent of Arsenal's objectives. His output was at the highest under Mikel Arteta, and continued a pattern of improving the year and underlined his enormous influence on an attack that was built to maximize his threat.
Arteta has a core of important players, but the always improved Saka is certainly at the top of the list.
Since the first match of Arteta, in December 2019, Saka has scored more Premier League performances, scored more goals and offered more assists than any other Arsenal player.
He also stands above his teammates for shots and opportunities created in that time frame. He is their main target threat, which has developed a ruthless lead when cutting in the right, but also their most important maker, who offers a consistent stream of opportunities from both open game and set-piece situations.
The output of Arsenal fell on both fronts without him, perhaps most especially from dead balls. Without the excellent delivery of Saka van Corners, for example, they went for two months without scoring one for the winner of Mikel Merino against Chelsea in their last game.
His return is of course not a fix-all solution for their problems this season. It is probably too late to save their title challenging, given the size of the gorge to the top. But his injury was the biggest blow to their chances. His return, for the same token, has the key to their hope to end strong.
Going back on the right?
Of course a lot will depend on how quickly Saka can rediscover its shape. His injury came after four consecutive seasons of almost every match. His absence of three months has brought him – and Arsenal – to unknown land.
He has never missed more than a few weeks, so it is difficult to predict the speed with which he will regain sharpness, or how quickly he will be put back into action.
However, the club is determined that it will not be hurried, and the care that will be spent with Martinelli, who received two games as a replacement before he started against Chelsea, who had a third of the time out with a less serious hamstring injury, suggests that they take it seriously.
Every case is of course different, but if it was felt that Martinelli needed two replacement performances for a complete comeback, it can reasonably be assumed that Saka needs more.
That can be the second stage of Arsenal's Champions League quarterfinals against Real Madrid, on April 16, a more realistic target for a return to the team than the first stage a week earlier.
What seems certain is that when he returns, it will be to his usual role on the right side of the Arsenal attack.
Saka was used by Arteta as a left back in his early months that was in charge and continued to perform on the left flank in the 2020/21 campaign. Since then, however, he has become a fixture on the right.
Arteta said in December, before Saka's injury, that he was “very open” for the idea of moving him in the future. But in view of his proven effectiveness in his usual position, and with Merino that grows in the role of play at no. 9, his immediate future is certainly on the right.
What for Nwaneri?
His return will have a direct impact on Ethan Nwaneri, whose striking breakthrough this season, usually when playing in the place of Saka on the right, has left-wing supporters wonder how Arsenal the couple can fit into the same starting line.
Recent evidence suggests that the Arsenal boss must find a solution in the not too distant future. The 18-year-old has scored eight goals, four of which have come during Saka's time on the sidelines, making him Arsenal's on two highest scorer this season and underlines his effectiveness.
His average of 0.66 goals per 90 minutes is actually the highest of every Arsenal player. He also showed his clinical lead internationally and scored on his full U21 debut in England against Portugal.
Everyone is delighted at Arsenal, but Arteta admits that Nwaneri has played many more minutes than planned this season due to their injury problems. On the one hand, the increased playing time has accelerated its development. On the other hand, there is the risk of overexposure.
Nwaneri has shown that he is ready to perform, but after last week only 18, his minutes still have to be managed while adapting to the physical and mental demands of football at top level. For now it may not be a bad thing to use him as a replacement than as a starter.
However, Nwaneri can offer a much needed rotation option for Saka to ensure that it is not overloaded after his injury, while Arteta can also use it in central positions.
Nwaneri was used earlier this season as a right -sided midfielder in the Carabao Cup. Arteta also said that he could play on the left side of midfield and even feels that he could develop into a no. 9. His versatility opens more routes in the team.
Nwaneri is of course not the only one who is also used on the right wing in the absence of Saka. Martinelli performed well against Chelsea before the international break. Raheem Sterling had his best match for Arsenal in the position in Champions League Last-16 second stage against PSV Eindhoven.
However, Sterling has much more work to do to earn a starting point, while Martinelli is a more natural fit on the left flank, where he can reclaim his place from Leandro Trossard.
The competition for places must be welcomed. The rise of Nwaneri in the absence of Saka offers a different High-Caliber option.
Why Odegaard needs Saka
Although some may have to make room for Saka in the team, others hope to take advantage of his return. Odegaard did not look at his usual self this season and only contributed two goals and four assists in 21 Premier League matches. The absence of Saka has been a factor.
The concept between the couple on the right flank of Arsenal has become a crucial possession, but injuries mean that they only started 12 of the 45 games together in all competitions this season.
It says that Arsenal is unbeaten in those 12 games, with a profit percentage of 67 percent compared to 55 percent in games with one or both lacking in the starting line-up.
The presence of Saka is of course not the only consideration in assessing the form of Odegaard, but it is certainly a big one. The statistics underline the strength of their connection on the field.
The image below breaks all the opportunities for both Saka and Odegaard since the permanent arrival of the latter in Arsenal from Real Madrid at the start of the 2021/22 season.
In that time frame, Odegaard created 46 chances for Saka in the Premier League, considerably more than the second highest player in Martinelli, who has created 32 opportunities for Saka.
However, interesting is that the data see an even larger wave in reverse. Saka's total of 74 chances made for Odegaard is almost three times as high as that of someone else, with Martinelli Next at 29.
Odegaard is often considered the playmaker of the two. In fact, he is served much more by Saka than he serves him. It helps to explain his dip in shape without Saka next to him.
Saka's chemistry with white
Odegaard is not the only player with whom Saka has a strong concept. Ben White has also been a crucial part of Arsenal's justice potential in recent years, but injury has also destroyed his season. His recent start in the 2-2 draw with PSV Eindhoven was his first since November.
Jurrien Timber has impressively filled in his absence and helps to ensure that Arsenal has maintained defensive firmness in the midst of their attacking struggles. He also contributed to the last third, most recently in the form of a goal against PSV and an assist in the 1-1 draw with Manchester United.
However, he does not have the same level of chemistry with Saka as White, who in October 2023 described an almost telepathic understanding between the pair in conversation with Sky Sports.
“He makes it so much easier than it should be,” said White. “We just know. I don't really understand why, but when I look up, I know what he will do or where he is going to be.”
For White it's not just about finding Saka, but how he finds him.
An important feature of their relationship in the field is that Saka almost always receives the passes of White while he is on the move, usually shooting from the right flank, instead of a standing start with his back to goal. It is a small but crucial detail.
“That is all to do with his timing,” White added. “If I get the ball, he is always on the road. It gives him the chance to attack without even having to take a good touch. It doesn't matter because he will already be for the defender.”
Saka's combination game with White is just another way in which his comeback can help Arsenal. He returns as their most important source of goals and assists, a scorer and a maker to match the very best in the Premier League, and the player who turns Arteta's side.
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