Arsenal have sixteen points from seven Champions League games, which puts them third in the new group stage.
Only Liverpool and Barcelona are ahead of them as they look towards a new season in the European Cup knockouts. Their passage is almost certain, but a nightmare on the last matchday where the results could go against them is not possible.
Mikel Arteta, like the fans, will have enough confidence in his side to laugh this prospect off, but a place in the last 16 is not yet guaranteed.
You can look as far down as Brest in thirteenth place to find a team with thirteen points – just three short of Arsenal's total. The Gunners' big advantage is their goal difference, which is currently plus 12. It means the five teams with a 13-point lead would need huge goal swings if they were to qualify in the top eight at Arsenal's expense.
Arsenal's last match is against Spanish side Girona. A team that has won one of their matches in Europe this season and lost six. For the Gunners to miss out on a top eight spot, at least a seven-goal swing is needed.
Aston Villa sit in ninth place and, after falling slightly behind after an impressive start, could be the team to benefit. There is a situation where a 2-0 defeat for Arsenal in Girona and a 5-0 success for Unai Emery's men at home to Celtic would see them rise above their Premier League rivals.
Monaco, Feyenoord and Lille are level with Villa on 13 points, but their inferior goal difference means an even more extreme goal swing would be required to beat the Gunners.
Another element of this barely believable scenario would see Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen all win their final games. It all points to a situation where Arsenal finish in the top eight and secure themselves a place in the last 16, avoiding the new knockout stages of the play-offs.
A significantly more likely scenario for the Gunners is that a win over Girona, coupled with Barcelona's points loss, sees them rise to second in the table. That would see them play Liverpool in the other half of the draw and be guaranteed to play at home in ALL their knockout matches heading into a possible final in Munich.
Last year the Gunners reached the last eight in their long-awaited return to Europe's top flight. On that occasion it was Bayern Munich who thwarted them, winning 1-0 at the Allianz Arena after the two sides had drawn 2-2 in the English capital.
Despite all the extreme permutations, which mean that Arsenal cannot technically speak of a guaranteed place in the top eight, Arteta is ready for a new attempt to penetrate Europe.
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