Mikel Arteta's comments about the Carabao Cup match ball dominated the headlines following Arsenal's semi-final first leg loss to Newcastle on Tuesday, but the most revealing response from his press conference concerned Alexander Isak's impact.
“I don't think he created or had big chances, but unfortunately he was involved in both goals, with the two times he had the ball in the penalty area,” Arteta said of Isak's match-winning contribution.
“That's what you get when you have real quality at the front.”
It was an unusually candid comment from the Arsenal boss, with the not-so-subtle implication that he does not have a striker of a comparable standard. Arsenal are of course one of the candidates for the 25-year-old. His performance at the Emirates Stadium underlined why.
While Isak took his chances, scoring the opener and setting up Newcastle's second goal with his only two shots, Arsenal had nothing to show for it after 23 attempts. Their total of 3.09 expected goals was the highest by a Premier League side without scoring all season.
On the one hand, it is positive that they have been able to create so many chances without their most creative player in Bukayo Saka, and with Martin Odegaard clearly below par after the illness that limited him to a substitute appearance against Brighton.
But the lack of progressiveness has become a theme. Tuesday's match was the sixth of the season in which Arsenal failed to score. There have been another seven games in which they have scored just once. Only three of those games ended in victory.
Arteta is under scrutiny. Both because of his side's perceived reliance on set pieces and their struggle to convert scoring opportunities. But he's not the only manager for whom it's a problem.
In fact, the percentage of games in which Arsenal have scored a maximum of one goal is the third lowest among Premier League clubs this season. The problem is that it is much higher than Liverpool, the team they are trying to keep up with at the top of the table.
It's not new for Arsenal either.
Arsenal set a club record with a total of 91 goals in the Premier League last season, but there were eight games in all competitions in which they failed to find the net, seven of which ended in defeat. Eventual champions Manchester City played just four such matches over the course of the campaign.
Arteta has built an excellent defense. Their mistakes against Newcastle were out of character. But recent history shows the value of firepower, alongside defensive stinginess, when it comes to claiming the biggest prizes – and that's where Arsenal are falling short.
Kai Havertz has proven himself invaluable. His recent goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions and he put up strong numbers after stepping into that role last season. Gabriel Jesus, meanwhile, is on his best scoring run since joining Arsenal.
But both players are insanely frustrating finishers, something that's evident in the underlying data.
While Arsenal's supporting strikers have exceeded their expected targets to varying degrees over the past three seasons, even taking recent dips into account, their number 9s have done the opposite.
According to Opta's expected goals model, Havertz and Jesus have scored roughly five fewer goals than they should have, based on the quality of their chances. For Havertz, Tuesday's match, when he missed chances worth 1.13 xG, typified the problem.
Why Isak, Cunha and Mbeumo are appealing
The timing was particularly unfortunate given the performance of his counterpart Isak at the other end of the pitch.
His goal was his 10th in his last nine games, his 15th of the season and his 50th in 89 appearances in total since his £63m arrival at Newcastle from Real Sociedad in 2022.
There is no exact science to the art of scoring. But the best players typically score more goals than 'expected', often aided by the ability to convert both the harder and easier chances, something that usually translates into consistent xG overperformance.
These players have a proven talent for deciding marginal games and Isak is certainly one of them. The underlying data from the last three seasons shows that he has scored almost four more goals than expected, making 44 Premier League goals at 40.45 xG.
It's worth noting that Wolves' Matheus Cunha and Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo, two of Arsenal's other attacking targets, have shown the same ability.
Cunha's tally of 24 goals from 15.6 xG gives him the second-highest positive differential among Premier League players with at least 15 goals since the start of the 2022/2023 season. Mbeumo, who like Isak recently scored against Arsenal, is not far behind him in the rankings with a total of 31 goals from 25.69 xG.
Arteta is well aware of Arsenal's need for a finisher. His comments at his press conference after the defeat at the hands of Isak on Tuesday left little room for doubt. But identifying goals is one thing; Securing it, especially in the middle of the season, is another matter.
Isak is estimated to be worth £150 million. He has little incentive to leave and his club has little incentive to sell as he leads their efforts to win silverware and return to the Champions League. Signing him in the summer would be challenging enough, let alone in January.
Cunha and Mbeumo are equally important to Wolves and Brentford respectively and although the latter's contract expires in 18 months, the former is in talks over a new deal.
Arsenal's other option is to look abroad. But the challenge of adapting to the rigors of the Premier League that newcomers face, especially mid-season, is such that the club under Arteta generally prefers signings who are Premier League ready .
In other words, there is no easy solution. But Arsenal must do their best to find one even in difficult circumstances. The need for more firepower was clear even before Saka's injury. Tuesday's loss and Arteta's comments afterwards only highlighted the issue.
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