Opta's supercomputer has simulated 50,000 scenarios to predict the points and positions that the 36 Champions League teams will collect.
This season, the Champions League has undergone a significant transformation. The familiar group stage, which for years determined which teams advanced to the knockout rounds on the way to the final, has been replaced. Instead, there is a new format where each team faces eight opponents, with a single table ranking all 36 competitors.
This new format promises an unprecedented scoring percentage and drama until the very last moment of the last match. With the first five matchdays behind us, the first round of the Champions League enters its final sprint, bringing big surprises and leaving some of the supposed favorites in precarious positions. Real Madrid, Manchester City and especially Paris Saint-Germain are good examples.
The sixth matchday of the competition phase, which takes place this week, promises high-stakes tension, countless possible outcomes and an almost indecipherable table. In this atmosphere of uncertainty, few are willing to make predictions. However, Opta's supercomputer does not hesitate. Using big data, it simulated more than 50,000 scenarios to predict the final standings of all 36 teams, including their expected points total.
Based on the predicted points for each team at the end of the competition phase and their current goal gaps, we can outline a potential table. While this projection may differ significantly from the final rankings, it provides a glimpse into possible scenarios and hypothetical matchups for the next few rounds. Below is the predicted table for the Champions League stage after eight matchdays, based on the most likely points tally awarded to each of the 36 participants and their current goal differentials:
*The tiebreak will be decided on the basis of the goal difference that existed before the start of the sixth round.
It's worth noting that these rankings are not final, as direct matchups and goal differences will cause significant fluctuations in the final positions. However, as a rough guide, Opta's analysis suggests that 16 points should guarantee a top-8 finish (and direct passage to the Round of 16), while 10 points should be enough for a top-24 finish, allowing progression in the competition is insured.
The way forward for Spanish clubs
Barcelona
Under Hansi Flick, Barcelona has performed strongly and achieved 12 out of 15 points. This puts them in an excellent position to finish in the top eight, with just a 24% chance of missing out, according to Opta. However, there are still three tough matches on the schedule. They visit Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday, followed by a visit to Benfica's Estádio da Luz (January 21) and a final home match against Atalanta in Montjuïc (January 29). Barcelona's current goal difference of +13 could be decisive. Opta predicts they will finish with 16 points, likely securing a top-8 spot.
Atletico Madrid
Atlético Madrid took a big step towards progress with a resounding 6-0 win over Sparta Prague. Their favorable schedule now stands at nine points with a +2 goal difference and allows for a top-8 finish, which they achieve in 36.1% of simulations. The following Wednesday, Slovan Bratislava is in Madrid, followed by a home match against Bayer Leverkusen (January 21) and an away match against Salzburg (January 29). Opta gives Atlético only a 0.3% chance of missing the top 24.
Real Madrid
The prospects are less optimistic for Real Madrid. After losing to Liverpool, they are still on six points from five games, leaving a slim chance (2.1%) of avoiding the play-off round. Their next match against Atalanta on Tuesday will be crucial, followed by home games against Salzburg (January 22) and Brest (January 29). Yet Madrid have a 90% chance of reaching the play-offs, but only a 6.8% chance of falling outside the top 24.
Girona
Girona faces the steepest uphill battle. With only three points and a -5 goal difference, they have only a 4.6% chance of staying in the competition. They host Liverpool in Montilivi on Tuesday, travel to Milan (January 22) and conclude with a home match against Arsenal (January 29). Only a miracle can make Girona's European dream come true.
Liverpool unstoppable, City cannot fail, PSG on the brink…
On the international stage, surprises abound and emotions run high, with several European football giants facing major challenges and the urgent need to perform in the final three matchdays. A good example is Paris Saint-Germain, which is outside the top 24 prior to matchday 6.
The French champions are facing the most dramatic situation among Europe's elite clubs. With only four points from the first five matchdays, PSG would currently be eliminated from the Champions League. Opta's simulations offer little hope: in each of the 50,000 scenarios there is a 0% chance that they will end up in the top eight. However, they still have a 58% chance of reaching the play-off round. To achieve this, they must overcome significant obstacles. First, Luis Enrique's team will play away against Salzburg on Tuesday. Their biggest test will come on Matchday 7, when Manchester City, also under pressure, visit Paris on January 22. PSG will conclude their campaign on January 29 in Stuttgart.
Manchester city
The reigning Premier League champions have also had a difficult time. Dropping two points against Feyenoord in the final 15 minutes of a match has sent Pep Guardiola's team into one of the worst slumps in recent history. With eight points out of a possible fifteen, City enters the final stage in a precarious position. To avoid the play-off round, they must perform exceptionally well in their remaining matches, as they reach the top eight in only 15.5% of Opta's simulations.
The road ahead is challenging. City visit Juventus this Wednesday, followed by a big clash against PSG on January 22. They will close the competition phase at home against Club Brugge on January 29.
The revival of Bayern Munich and the momentum of Inter Milan
Bayern Munich heads into the final sprint with renewed confidence. The Bavarian giants have bounced back after important victories, including a victory over PSG on the previous matchday. Previous defeats to Aston Villa and Barcelona put them in a difficult position, but their recent successes all but guarantee a place in the top 24 (with Opta assigning just a 0.1% chance of elimination). The team remains alive in the race for a top eight finish, which they achieve in 53.9% of simulations. Bayern's schedule also works in their favor, with games against Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday, Feyenoord on January 22 and a home final against already eliminated Slovan Bratislava on January 29.
Inter Milan's situation is even more secure. The reigning Serie A champions are all but assured of a top eight finish, with Opta giving them a 90.9% chance. Simone Inzaghi's team has 13 points out of 15 and has not yet conceded a goal (+7 goal difference). Their remaining schedule includes a visit to Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, a trip to Sparta Prague on January 22 and a home match against Monaco at the Giuseppe Meazza on January 29.
Liverpool: the (seemingly) unstoppable force
Finally, Liverpool are the team most likely to top the table at the end of the league phase. Arne Slot's side have been dominant in both the Premier League and the Champions League. With Opta giving them a 98.3% chance of finishing in the top eight and a 62.2% chance of taking first place in the overall standings, the Reds look unstoppable. Their remaining fixtures are favourable, starting with a trip to Girona on Tuesday. They then host Lille at Anfield on January 21 before concluding the first phase with an away match at PSV Eindhoven on January 29. Then to the knockout stages!
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