We are in the home stretch of the Champions League stage, with the five British teams looking to deliver different performances in the new format.
The controversial new Swiss-style system has divided opinion, with each team in a large 36-league squad and facing eight different opponents throughout the season.
Liverpool don't seem to mind, having won each of their first five matches in the league stage so far without a goal. Fifteen points have all but assured them a place in the top eight, securing a place in the last 16.
But can Arne Slot now afford to rotate his team? No. That's because there's an incentive to keep winning, as every finish matters in this new Champions League format.
Read below to see all the permutations regarding the rest of the Champions League format…
Who will qualify from the competition phase?
To achieve automatic qualification for the March round of 16, teams must finish in the top eight.
Those ranked ninth to 24th will enter a round of two-legged play-offs in February, with the winners taking the remaining eight places in the last 16.
Those who finish ninth to sixteenth will be qualified for the play-offs and will therefore play the second leg at home. Those from the 17th to the 24th will not be seeded, so make sure you have the first leg at home.
Teams finishing anywhere between 25th and 36th will be eliminated from this season's competition, without entry into the Europa League.
Okay, but if we're in the top eight, does it matter if I finish first or eighth?
Yes. The way the Champions League stage competition works is that the final league position gives you a specific route (and specific opponents) in the knockout stage draw.
The image below shows the tournament tree for the rest of the competition. For the first time ever, the knockout rounds will be decided in the league stage – with no separate draws for the last 16, quarter-finals and beyond.
For example, the teams that finish first or second in the league stage will face a team that finishes 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th.
Compare that to the team that finishes seventh or eighth, which could play a team that finishes 23rd or 24th – but also runs the risk of facing the team in ninth or tenth place – what could be a great European team.
The advantage for the team that finishes first or second is that they are guaranteed to play a team in the 'middle' of the Champions League final. If you finish lower, you run the risk of playing against a better team.
Is it really an advantage to finish at the top?
Not necessarily. Especially this season.
The early struggles of teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain mean that a top European club could end up in the “middle” of the Champions League, facing one of the best performing teams.
Currently, Liverpool are at the top of the table, but the teams currently ranked 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th are Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Manchester City and PSV Eindhoven.
So if teams don't do as well as expected in the league stage, it could lead to some blockbusters in the last 16, taking away the advantage of finishing in the highest possible places.
Is there a difference between ninth and 24th place?
Again, yes. A big one. And that has everything to do with the play-offs.
The new Champions League format means that the team finishing ninth will face the team in 24th in the play-off round. The tenth plays the 23rd, the 11th plays the 22nd and so on.
So if you just miss out on a top eight finish, the blow is softened by playing the worst performing teams who qualified from the league stage. So the higher you finish, the 'easier' the game becomes.
Then again, if teams like Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain struggle in the league stages, the top sides may meet in the play-off rounds.
How many points do you need to guarantee a place in the top eight?
The Opta supercomputer thinks that 16 points is almost certainly enough to finish in the top eight, which would then guarantee you a last 16 spot in March.
The data also shows that 15 points could be enough to sneak into eighth place, with that number of points being sufficient in 73 percent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the competition phase. Liverpool reached that number last month after five wins from five games.
Meanwhile, 14 points are unlikely to be enough for a top eight finish.
How many points do you need to guarantee a top-24 finish?
To finish in the top 24, which at least guarantees you a play-off spot, Opta thinks that 10 points almost certainly guarantees you a place in that round.
Liverpool, Arsenal and Aston Villa have already reached that number, while Celtic and Manchester City are one win away from that total.
However, nine points can also be enough to finish 24th, with that number being sufficient in 69 percent of simulations. City and Celtic are currently one point away from that total.
But only eight points are at risk of elimination, while that number of points is sufficient in only 16 percent of simulations.
Opta Predictions: Arsenal, Liverpool in top eight | Villa wins Real Madrid
The Opta supercomputer says Arsenal and Liverpool will finish in the top eight, with Arne Slot's side remaining top and the Gunners in third.
As it stands, Manchester City and Celtic are expected to finish in 15th and 18th place, which would mean they would face each other in the play-off round in February.
There would be a mouthwatering draw for 13th-placed Aston Villa, who would get Real Madrid – predicted to finish 21st – into the play-offs, with the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu.
The supercomputer also says Paris Saint-Germain is on course to finish 26th – and would therefore be eliminated from all European competitions at the first hurdle.
Who are the supercomputer's Champions League favorites?
Liverpool are currently the favorites to win the Champions League, with Slot's side given a 20 percent chance of lifting the trophy in Munich after a great start to the season.
Arsenal are third favorites with 13.2 percent – just ahead of Pep Guardiola's Man City – and fourth favorites with 9.3 percent.
Inter Milan are second favorites with 15.8 percent, with Atalanta, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting Lisbon making up the top ten.
Aston Villa have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the entire tournament, which is twice as likely as Celtic's 0.3 percent.
When are the 2024/25 Champions League knockout stages?
Where will the Champions League final be held in 2025?
The 2024/25 UEFA Champions League season will take place on May 31, 2025 in Munich at the Allianz Arena.
Comments