The League title race took another dramatic turn last weekend as Atletico Madrid secured a last-minute 2-1 victory over Barcelona at the Montjuïc Olympic Stadium. This crucial win propelled Atletico to the top of the table and ended an 18-year drought of away league victories against Barcelona. It has been years since LaLiga witnessed a title race this exciting between the three traditional superpowers: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid.
These matches were the kryptonite of the Simeone era, with Atleti often struggling to show their best version. Ironically, Atletico managed to win this match despite being heavily dominated again by a Barcelona side who created many more chances. Yet football has never been about 'earning' to score – it's about actually scoring. And Atleti were the ones who had the efficiency to score.
You could argue that this efficiency is unsustainable throughout the season. Yet Atletico have repeatedly shown an uncanny ability to survive periods of poor performance and strike back decisively at decisive moments in the late game. Remarkably, they have scored 13 of their 33 league goals – a staggering 40% – in the final 15 minutes of this season's matches. The list of Atleti's late goal victims is extensive, both in Spain – Celta, Barça, Rayo, Alaves, Sevilla, Real Madrid – and in Europe – PSG, Leipzig.
Such results may not make sense to someone who does the tactical or statistical analysis of the matches, but in my opinion these moments are the most fun part of football. Many analysts and analytics enthusiasts dismiss these moments as luck or randomness, but there is intellectual humility in recognizing that not everything can be fully explained by tactics or numerical models.
Although skill and randomness explain a significant portion of the under- or overperformance of the expected goal (xG), psychological and dynamic contextual elements also play a role. A player's confidence, mental state and focus can have a significant impact on his finishing ability. For example, a player in good form may take risks he would not otherwise attempt, or remain calmer in high-pressure moments, improving his conversion rate. Conversely, players who experience slumps may hesitate, overthink, or lose their cool in front of goal, leading to poorer results.
Certain game scenarios, such as the score line, the stage of the competition or the presence of crowds, can influence how players perform against xG. A striker can excel when the stakes are low, but struggle under intense pressure, or vice versa. These context-dependent, dynamic factors are difficult to quantify, but they have an undeniable impact and should not be confused with randomness. Many statistical analyzes I see online make the mistake of conflating the dynamic and contextual factors with random factors, and such oversimplifications hinder the quality of the analysis.
We have a large enough sample from this season to recognize that what is happening now with Atleti is more than just luck. Their streak may not last forever, all good runs eventually come to an end, but it's a phenomenon that has already significantly shaped and will likely continue to shape this season's title race.
Barcelona, meanwhile, offers a sharp contrast. As journalist Miguel Quintana noted, Hansi Flick's Barcelona have yet to win a match they didn't 'deserve' based on the underlying numbers. This could be great for those looking to validate their xG models, but it poses a challenge to Barça's title ambitions. The teams that lift trophies often find ways to pick up victories in games where they are struggling or outplayed – something Barcelona has not yet managed to do.
However, this trait is a hallmark of Real Madrid, who built their European empire on an uncanny ability to win games in which they were outplayed. There has been less discussion about it lately, but Real Madrid are just as adept as Atletico at securing games. results in games where the performance metrics suggest this shouldn't be the case. Real Madrid have also built up a significant list of victims this season in Spain and Europe who played as well, if not better, than them – Alaves, Villarreal, Celta, Atalanta – but were still beaten.
The first instinct of many analytics-obsessed fans might be to consult the xG table, identify the team with the best underlying numbers and declare them the most likely champions because their football is more 'sustainable'. However, the football reality is much more dynamic than that. The opposite will be decisive for La Liga: which team can continue its good performances for the longest time, navigate through chaotic and fluctuating moments and defy the limits of what we can understand and quantify in mathematical models.
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