With 128 days to go before England to defend their European title, the reigning continental champions will welcome World Champions Spain on Wednesday in Wembley Stadium for a delicious Rematch of the World Cup final of the Women's World Cup.
In a huge test for both parties, the lion ribbons will hope to do better than when they came in second place in Sydney in August 2023.
With the July tournament in Switzerland that looms up, England craves a statement that would give them a much needed momentum that the euros is going.
The rivalry between England and Spain is growing, in which both countries have shaken the elite of women's football in the past three years with their most important tournament dyemers.
With this time in the Nations League they have to play each other twice before the showpiece of this summer.
However, Lionesses fans can feel less confident than before about the opportunities that England retains their European crown. Their form since that 1-0 defeat against Spain at Australia stage has taken a downward route.
Sarina Wiegman will therefore be looking for a boost of trust. A good achievement would be fun, but above all, she must find a way to win.
The Dutch manager has confronted Spain as a coach six times, and only once she tasted the victory-even then she needed extra time to win in the quarterfinals of the Ladies-Euro 2022.
Wiegman has lost four times to Spain, suffers defeats in each of her three meetings with them as a Dutch boss, and the other loss is that heartbreaking world cup final with England. Her teams have only managed two goals against Spain and have admitted seven in exchange.
A victory would then put down a marker for the summer, but Spain is world champions for a reason and will offer the strictest tests.
Lionesses need their bite back
The shape of England has certainly decreased since their run to the World Cup final in 2023.
The most striking difficulty area for the lion ribbons has been their attack. They were previously scored freely under Wiegman, but in the 18 months since that loss against Spain in Australia they miss their bite in advance.
England has played 19 games since the World Cup and scored 42 goals of 38.0 expected goals. That is an average of 2.2 goals per game and 2.0 xg per game, so it is hardly bad, but compared to their earlier attacking displays, the drop-off is clear.
In 17 games in the qualification for the World Cup, and then the final itself, England plundered an extraordinary 93 goals of 67.7 xg.
These incredible figures meant that the lion ribbons scored with a remarkable average of 5.4 goals per match in that period, creating opportunities at 3.9 xg per game.
At that time they had 470 shots and 953 touches in the opposition box. Since then they have managed 275 shots and 549 touches in the opposition box in their 19 games.
That means that their average per game for shots is falling from 27.6 to 14.4, while their average touches in the opponent's box fell from 56 to 28.8, almost half. This decline is a problem that Wiegman has to tackle for the euros.
Another area in which they have struggled has left teams in games again in the second half of the matches.
Since the World Cup, England has admitted 10 goals in the second half in their 19 games, confronted with 89 shots in the second half.
In their Nations League opener against Portugal, England suffered the same fate by giving in to an exceptional purpose of replacement Kika Nazareth, who shot in the upper right corner to earn a 1-1 draw.
But based on the dominance of England of the first half, the game should have been put to bed for a long time. The Leeuwessen collected 0.94 of their total 1.12 XG in the first half.
Instead, a momentum shift from the second half again emphasized the issue of England and was unable to kill a game they had control over.
In their 17 games in the qualifying of 2023 World Cup and the final of the tournament, they only gave goals for two second half and 29 fewer shots made it (60). England has to find this form again – they can't afford to give Spain a pinch on Wednesday evening when they go in front.
Spain's unpredictable threat
As we saw from their own Nations League opener on Friday, Spain are not infallible either. They fell to Belgium 2-0, but arrived late in the second half to win 3-2.
Just like England, they have also had a difficult form of shape since their victory in the World Cup final. A disappointing run in the Olympic Games Culminated that they were eliminated by Brazil in the semi -final.
A 4-2 loss for the Selecao was followed by a 1-0 defeat in the bronze medal match to Germany in a tournament where the previous world order was restored in women's football, with the United States claiming gold.
But Spain will be stimulated by their victory over Belgium and further stimulated by the second half of the lion ribbons.
On the other hand, England has won three of their last six meetings with Spain, although they have lost their last meeting (the World Cup final).
Although they have a shortage of their best, England is still difficult to beat, after he has only lost one of their last nine competitive matches in all competitions (W5 D3), unbeaten in four (W2 D2) since a 2-1 Home loss against France in May last year.
Wednesday in our sights pic.twitter.com/owqqyo2bgv
– Lionesses (@lionesses) February 23, 2025
The Spain's attack will therefore have to be on shape.
Alba Redondo did not score against Belgium, but registered the highest XG (1.36) of a player on match day in the Nations League, despite playing just 60 minutes. She hopes to be more clinical after she has only hit the target twice of six shots.
Redondo also had 11 touches in the opponent's box – a count that was only improved by Poland's Ewa Pajor (12). Teammate and ladies Super League newcomer Mariona Caldentey were also at the top of the charts for touches, with a remarkable 142, 17 more than the next best Teresa Abelelira (125).
Caldentey created five chances that the joint of each player in the opening fixtures of the Nations League together with Manuela Giugliano in Italy.
Four of the top six players for successful passes on the competition day were Spanish – Caldentey (87), Irene Paredes, Laia Aleixandri and Abelleira (all 85). For comparison: the most successful passer of the lion ribbons against Portugal was Leah Williamson (56), with Keira Walsh and Niamh Charles Next-Beste on 50 each.
After match day, Caldentey (0.73) and Salma Paralluelo (0.7) Leiden the Nations League for expected assists (XA), where each of those players a goal per item is Spain attack.
European elite? Those to look at
With the rapid growth of the WSL and Liga F, it is no surprise that these two parties can be beat the teams in the past four years. After years of American dominance on world stage and German dominance in Europe, both teams have shown that they can disrupt the apple car.
Spain has the talent of Aitana Bonmati, a double balloon d'Or winner.
This season, Bonmati already has 10 target contributions for Barcelona in the competition, a count linked by her club and national teammate ONA Batlle, another player who can cause damage.
Only Caroline Graham Hansen (176) has more touches this season in the opposition box than Bolmati (131) in Europe's top five competitions. She is also in second place in Europe's top five competitions for the opportunities created (49 – level with Hansen and behind Giuglianos 50).
Paralluelo is one of the emerging talents of Spain for which England will be wary.
A former Sprinter, Paralluelo is quickly through its wings. This season she has five target contributions in just 304 competitions, which means that she has a goal or helps every 60 minutes.
Arsenal took everything out of the closet to bring Caldentey to London in the low season, and she has proven a creative force for the Gunners, with 26 chances in the WSL this period, a figure that was only improved by her club size Katie McCabe (33) . However, she has the highest expected assists (4.29) in the competition, which shows that she has created high quality opportunities.
What about England then?
Alessia Russo is finally flourishing in Arsenal under new manager Renee Sleers, sitting in the Golden Boot Race with eight goals, behind the Khadija 'Bunny' Shaw of Manchester City (11).
RUSSO is also in fourth place for WSL targets (10 – eight goals, two assists) this period, and has had more shots (48) than any other player in the competition. Only Shaw has recorded a higher XG (6.74 to Russo's 6.13).
Russo took the goal of England against Portugal and once walked out of three attempts. Lauren James came to Russo for shots (three), although she was unable to convert her chances. The Chelsea star, however, remains a major threat and is a player who thrives on the most important moments.
Keira Walsh, who has just made a blockbuster from Barcelona to Chelsea in the winter transfer window, will be well known by its Spanish opponents.
With 91.52%, she has the second best passing accuracy in Europe's top five competitions this season of midfielders to try at least 50 passes.
However, an unknown amount for Spain will be Grace Clinton from Manchester United, which leads the WSL for duels (204), while no midfielder has or has tried in the competition (50) or (20) as many dribbles.
Clinton scored the winning goal in each of her last two England appearances and aimed to become the youngest player who is on a record to score in three upright for the national team (since 2013), but she just couldn't find it against Portugal.
Without Georgia Stanway, Clinton still has a chance to prove that she is able to play a major role.
A star performance against one of the world's best teams would do her chances of not making a starting spot on the euros anyway.
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