All evidence suggests that Thomas Tuchel will probably opt for a back four when he takes the lead for his first match as an English head coach against Albania in Wembley.
That will be a surprise for many fans of England – and many Chelsea fans – because during his time at Stamford Bridge his preference was very clear for a system with three centerbacks and two wingbacks. Tuchel chose that system for 87 percent of his Chelsea competitions.
However, if you look at his entire club career of 426 league games for Mainz, Borussia Dortmund, Paris St-Germain, Chelsea and Bayern Munich, you can see that he has selected a flatback four for 75 percent of the matches in total. His preference is clear.
And if you look at the composition of this English team – and indeed, the resources that generally have the decision of Tuchel, when all players are fit and available – then there is a strong case to suggest that a back four would best match the strengths of England.
Why a back four packs of England better
Let's drill a little more in it. To play with a back three or back five, you first need three world-class center backs. And more in reserve to cover absence and poor shape.
If we are brutally honest, it is a position that England has been working on for many years to find consistency. There is Marc Guehi, Levi Colwill and Ezri Konsa in this camp, together with Dan Burn for the first time. And there are the wounded John Stones and Harry Maguire who will hopefully be available in the future.
For balance in a back three you need one left foot text – only Colwill and Burn Fit those criteria.
What is even more important, you need a number of specialized wing backs on both flanks if you want to play the 3-4-2-1 or 3-5-1-1 formation effectively. And again, Full-back is not a position in which Gareth Southgate was blessed, for the majority of the second half of his term of office.
Even now, despite the recurring Reece James, Tuchel is without the archetypal attacking wingbacks in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Southgate's faithful Luke Shaw. In fact, the only 'recognized' links in this current English team is the non-honored 18-year-old Myles Lewis-Skelly, who has jumped two age groups to be here.
Simply – does Tuchel have enough specialized defenders and wing -backs at his disposal to be able to play with a back three, even if he wanted to?
Moreover, it is impossible to create a formation that has wingbacks and wing players – unless you sacrifice a number 10 in the side.
That would be Bonkers, if you have a world -class
And so if Tuchel would choose to go with wingbacks, he would enter one of the two positions in which I would claim that England is one of the strongest in the world.
In terms of broad attacking talent, think of Bukayo Saka (when Fit), Marcus Rashford, Foden, Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen, Ebereechi Eze, Noni Madueke (when Fit).
There are few countries that can hold a candle for that kind of attacking talent. And so if Tuchel opts for wing backs, he should have a very host of the most talented background of England that warms up the bank.
Three Centerbacks is, I am sure, an option that Tuchel will consider when specific situations occur – against specific strong opposition that can play with two strikers; If England has specific injury problems; Maybe in competitions, for example if he wants to change things.
But the smart money would be on Tuchel who opts for a flatback four for most of his reign and head of English football – it represents both the philosophical and pragmatic ideal.
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