Our bet expert Jones Knows gives his insight while he analyzes the FA Cup action of the weekend and Birmingham argues for Birmingham to defeat Newcastle.
Manchester United vs Leicester, Friday 8 p.m.
This Manchester United team scores no goals. Thank you, captain lying obviously!
This season they only scored 28 goals in 24 Premier League matches up to an average of 1.17 per 90 – only Leicester, Ipswich, Southampton and Everton on average less.
An important problem stems from their inability to start games with every intention under Ruben Amorim. Slow starts use the tone for the rest of the game.
The only goal of the first half they scored in all competitions in all their competitions was the penalty of Bruno Fernandes in the defeat against Brighton and, after having gone against Palace in the break, it is now 16 games since this Team after 45 minutes.
It gives a number of fantastic gambling options to exploit, especially with the half-time 0-0 correct score that is offered on 3/1 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-0
Leyton Orient vs Manchester City, Saturday 12.15 pm
If someone who has driven this season on the downfall of Manchester City this season, the chance to support his opposition on 20/1 with Sky Bet, my eyes relieve, right? Imagine that City loses on Brisbane Road? Pep Guardiola can burn in a thousand pieces.
Orient -Baas Richie Wellens is certainly in the challenge and says: “Our analysts have been in their element this week because they have looked at clips from PSG, Arsenal and Liverpool. We have felt vulnerabilities there.”
I like this by Wellens.
City is so open without the ball that Oriente gets moments by simply being very direct and bringing the ball forward quickly – this makes their shot line very interesting from a gambling perspective. Salford, from League Two, succeeded in firing 10 shots in the 8-0-OM earlier this season, while the average of the city of 12.5 shots per 90 was confronted about their last 20 games, their sadness structure outside the possession.
Jamie Donley, on loan from Spurs, is the Schotenmeester van Orient and places 23 shots in his last 10 league matches. Those figures make the 9/4 with Sky Bet to touch that average and registering two or more shots very interesting.
Score prediction: 1-2
Birmingham vs Newcastle, Saturday 5.45 pm – Play Super 6!
Some can fall into the fall to believe in the Newcastle momentum factor that reaches the Carabao Cup final on Wednesday evening. Firstly, it is an impossible statistics to quantify, so it must be ignored when making gambling decisions and there is evidence to support that creating a cup -final can harm your next form of competition instead of stimulating it.
I just look at the last six non-Big-Six teams to make the EFL Cup final and their results between their victory in the second stage and the final shows a correlation of shape loss.
In those 24 games, the clubs involved had 12 losses, five draws and only seven victories. There are indications that making a cup -final little momentum offers little momentum in the following set games before the big day. Newcastle was included in that example of clubs when they made the Carabao Cup final in 2023 -they were Winless in their next three games after their Semi -final victory, drawing to West Ham and Bournemouth and lost from Liverpool.
Birmingham runs away with the League One title, on average 2.33 points per games this season. This is only improved by Liverpool (2.38) in the top four English divisions. Their Midweek Vertu -Trophy -victory on Stevenage made it unbeaten in all competitions -a point that extended until November 23 when they were humiliated by Shrewsbury. In the competition they held nine clean sheets in their last 13 games and only give four goals.
They can cause upset here. Back to qualify them at 100/30 with Sky Bet.
Score forecast: 2-1 | Jones Knows' Best Bet: Birmingham to qualify (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Chelsea, Saturday 8 p.m. – Play Super 6!
A theory that has the habit of paying dividends when it comes to football betting, is to support a team to make a defensive effect in their previous game. Brighton fit the bill after their 7-0 walloping in Nottingham Forest, where they did not defend the basic principles of defending during the game.
There should be a response from them with their defensive output against a Chelsea team that has just dropped their own goal well from recent times and scored only 1.4 goals per 90 in the Premier League in their last nine games. The under 2.5 goals line on 6/4 with Sky bet must get close.
Score prediction: 1-1 (Chelsea to win on penalties)
Plymouth vs Liverpool, Sunday 3 p.m. – Play Super 6!
Those who think that Liverpool is the best team in England must consider supporting them to fully win the FA Cup when you assess how the market is demanded. The men of Arne Slot are 4/1 second favorites with Sky Bet, with Manchester City priced as the market leaders – that makes little sense.
This should not be too much problem for the Reds based on Plymouth's current form of winning one of their last 16 champion competitions. A road victory with fewer than 3.5 goals that are thrown into the mix at 6/5 with sky bet looks the game.
Score prediction: 0-2
Aston Villa vs Tottenham, Sunday 5.35 pm – Play Super 6!
Aston Villa is a simple team to score against, especially without Pau Torres. He is a huge miss and I am always on my guard to trust them without him.
The data points to the Spanish defender who is a huge player for them.
Since the start of last season, in 51 games with him, the profit rate of Villa 58 percent has been admitted and they have admitted 1.3 goals per match. Without him, about a sample size of 22 matches, their profit percentage drops to 35 percent and give 2.1 goals per game. In total, their percentage drops 23 percent without him and they still give 0.8 goals.
Of course, football is a low scoring sport, so goals admitted number are a red flag when it comes to backing villa in this place. This is a more important match for Spurs, which are starting to show more coherence and bite their game again, now players are coming back. They are the bet to qualify on 7/4 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-2
Jones knows' best bet …
1pt on Birmingham for qualifying vs newcastle (100/30 with sky bet)
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