Nottingham Forest -Baas Nuno Espirito Santo says that the last five Premier League matches of his team of the campaign are “biggest of our career”.
Forest is sixth in the table, but I have the chance to go back to the top five, enough for a Champions League place next season, on Thursday against Brentford.
Nuno's side comes in the game behind the back of a 2-0 defeat against Manchester City in their FA Cup Semi-final collision, with full focus on sealing European football.
After Brentford, Forest Fac Fa Cup finalists Crystal Palace, Midlands Rivals Leicester City, West Ham United and Chelsea in their last games of their campaign.
“All games will be very, very important for many teams in this fight. We have another one. Let's try to perform well,” said Nuno.
“We are back in the city for our fans. It is a great help.
“We never stopped believing, no matter what happens. During the competition we have had good moments and bad moments, and we have been able to respond, and again it is up to us to respond again.
“All games are the biggest games of our career. That's how we approach it.
“We are now only thinking of Brentford. That is the only thing that we have to consider in our minds is to compete against them. It is in our hands, that is a big advantage.”
Brentford now has their own European ambitions, with the bees five points behind the eighth placed Fulham in the race for European football.
A top eight finish in the Premier League would secure a place in the European Conference League of next season if Palace Man City did not beat in the FA Cup final.
Brentford conquered Brighton in a six-purpose thriller in their last competition meeting, and even with Europe in their sights, says bee manager Thomas Frank that a second top half would be a “remarkable performance”.
“There are still five games to go; we want to end as high as possible,” Frank said.
“We would definitely like to see if we can end up in the top 10 for the second time in the Premier League, which would be a remarkable achievement.
“Can we do a better than our best season in the Premier League and end eighth? That would be brilliant. And if that is Europe, that would be fantastic.”
Players to watch
Nottingham Forest – Chris Wood
This season, Wood has the highest shot conversion rate in the Premier League (min. 10 shots), so that he has received 19 of his 54 attempts so far (35.2%).
It is indeed the highest conversion rate registered (since 2003-04) for each player with at least 50 shots in one campaign.
This season he also scored 19 goals for Forest in the Premier League-De only player who scores 20 in a campaign for the club is Stan Collymore (22 in 1994-95).
Brentford – Bryan Mbeumo
This season, Mbeumo was involved in 24 Premier League goals for Brentford (18 goals, six assists), the joint-mest by a player for them in a single season in the competition, together with Ivan Toney in 2022-23.
His first goal against Brighton was his eighth strike that opened the score in a Premier League match this season. Only Forest's Wood (nine) has scored more.
Mbeumo has also formed a good partnership with Yoane Wissa. The couple both scored 18 times in the same Premier League match, with only seven different duos that do this more for one side in the history of the competition.
Seven of those 18 games have been this season. The last time that a few did this more times in one campaign was in 2021-22, when Harry Kane and son Heung-min scored eight times in the same game for Tottenham Hotspur, and Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah did this 10 times for Liverpool.
Competition prediction: Nottingham Forest Win
The 2-0 victory of Forest against Brentford in the reverse match ended a six-game Winless Run against the bees in the competition (D3 L3), with 2019-20 the last time they completed the competition double against them.
Their 1-0 defeat against Everton in their last home game ended an unbeaten run of nine games on the City Ground in the Premier League (W7 D2). They have not lost a consecutive home competition since their last two last season (vs Man City and Chelsea).
Only Southampton (182) and Fulham (181) forced less high sales this season than Forest in the Premier League (201). Nevertheless, they are in second place for goals scored from high turnover this term (nine), behind only Liverpool (10).
Brentford is now unbeaten in their last three league matches (W1 D2), but this season has to go four without defeat, last in April 2024 (Run of Five).
But after winning four consecutive road races against Forest between 2014 and 2018, Brentford won only one of their last five on the City Ground (D2 L2).
The bees are also Winless in all 10 of their midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League matches since the start of last season (D3 L7), while they also lost their only last Thursday match in the competition (0-2 V Tottenham, December 2021).
But forest must be on their guard. This season, Brentford has the highest shot conversion of each party in the Premier League (14.8%). However, the Nuno team has the lowest conversion rate against them in the competition this period (8.3%).
Opta wins probability
Nottingham Forest – 44.8%
Drawing – 25.4%
Brentford – 29.8%