Guardiola says City ‘don’t need to adapt’ after UCL collapse against Feyenoord

Pep Guardiola says Manchester City don't need to change after his side's winless run extended to six games, but is he right?

City became the first team in Champions League history to throw away a three-goal lead after 75 minutes, having already suffered five defeats on the rebound before their late defeat to Feyenoord.

City are now eight points behind Liverpool in the Premier League and are languishing in fifteenth place in the Champions League.

In the Premier League, City's current tally of 23 points after 12 games ranks as Pep's second-worst start to the season after the 2020/21 campaign, when his side had just 20 points but were still crowned champions in May – a warning to the doubters.

So is City's alarming collapse in form just a blip? Will Pep's side find their usual groove as they head into the festive season? Or have fine cracks developed into noticeable fractures?

Toothless attack?

City are scoring fewer goals this season than ever before under Guardiola, if you include the Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup, but the underlying data suggests good times could soon return to the Etihad.

The Cityzens are scoring on average exactly two goals per match in these three competitions this season, down from 2.68 in 2018/19.

However, City are recording around 2.2 expected goals per match, which is the average over the past three title-winning campaigns.

It would undoubtedly be unfair to point the finger at Erling Haaland: the Norway international tops the domestic goalscoring chart with 12 goals and trails only Robert Lewandowski on the European stage with five goals.

But the 24-year-old has scored slightly fewer goals than expected this season, on an expected goals basis – after exceeding all predictions in his record-breaking inaugural campaign.

That marginal difference is unlikely to affect his side too much. Indeed, Haaland's expected goals figures reflect the chances he creates at such an early stage of the season. The problem is the lack of teammates who step up when their number 9 fails.

Haaland has scored more than half of City's goals in the Premier League this season; that ratio was only 28 percent in the recent period.

Leaky defense?

City's unusually leaky defense appears to be the main problem plaguing Pep's struggling champions.

The chart below shows that over the past nine seasons, City have scored more goals, registered more expected goals conceded and conceded more shots on target than in any other season.

What's more, the City machine is churning with errors, registering six errors that have led to goals in the Premier League and Champions League this season – two more than all of last season.

The graph below shows how easily opponents have played through City in every Premier League season since 2017/2018. Guardiola's side looked flawless until 2021/22, but permeable 'red flag' areas began to emerge in 2022/23 and this season City represent the weakest defense under Guardiola.

The graph below shows City's moving average for expected goals scored (in green) and goals conceded (in red). The current increase in expected goals conceded is unprecedented under Guardiola's tenure, allowing opponents to create more high-quality chances than they generate themselves.

City beyond peak?

Manchester City have the fourteenth oldest average starting XI in the Premier League this season, which isn't exactly alarming as rivals Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle all record older ages, but the proportion of older players could be a concern.

More than half of City's 20 most used players this season are aged 29 or over, with returner Ilkay Gundogan clocking 1,047 minutes in the Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup at the age of 34.

Kyle Walker has 660 minutes to his name at the age of 34, while talisman Kevin De Bruyne's injury-laden start has limited the Belgian to just 462 minutes at the age of 33.

City have allocated a large proportion of playing time in the competition to players aged 29 or over. In contrast, Chelsea are one place and one point behind City in the Premier League, but have yet to give a minute to a player aged 29 or over.

It was almost as shocking as City's in-form collapse against Timo Werner during City's 4-0 defeat to Tottenham, but the 34-year-old's afterburners have waned in recent years – after a sustained 21mph . h average top speed.

Pep's side have overcome slower starts in the past. However, the statistics point to numerous red flags and Guardiola's 'giants' will look to silence the critics and reduce the gap to five points when they travel to Anfield on Sunday.