Madrid have just six points from their first five UCL games. How much more are they likely to need to avoid elimination?
Real Madrid, who play Atalanta in Italy on Tuesday (December 10), are teetering on the edge as they approach the final three matches of the Champions League group stage. After the first five matches, Carlo Ancelotti's team is in 24th place with six points (two wins and three losses), the last place that gives access to the play-offs in the knockout stage, which includes the last eight qualifying tournaments for the Determine round of 16.
Champions League qualification forecasts
At the start of the season, UEFA ran several simulations to predict the number of points needed to advance in the Champions League. The magic number: average 7.8 points to get into the playoffs. In most seasons, eight points should be enough to stay afloat in Europe's top competition.
In some cases, a draw at eight points requires a tiebreak based on goal difference, while other seasons require nine or more points, and occasionally teams can advance with as little as seven points.
Can Real Madrid still qualify directly for the eighth finals?
For Real Madrid, it is almost a dream to finish in the top eight and secure direct qualification for the round of 16.
Based on the current rankings, forecasts such as those from BeSoccer place the top-eight cut-off at 16 points, which is already out of reach for Ancelotti's team (which can only reach a maximum of 15 points). In fact, even Milan, with 16 points in such a simulation, would miss out on the top eight.
BeSoccer's prediction also suggests that securing 24th place will be difficult. It would take 10 points, and even then another team with 10 points might miss out. According to this forecast, Madrid would end the group stage in 18th place with 12 points.
How many points are needed to avoid elimination from the Champions League?
Before the competition started, and after running 10,000 simulations, X-account Football Meets Data estimated that there was a 55% chance that the 24th-placed team would finish with nine points, a 22% chance with 10 points and a 1% chance that the threshold would rise to 11 points. This means that to avoid relying on goal difference, 10 points would be required 78% of the time, while nine points would guarantee a play-off place in only 22% of scenarios.
The same story now states that 12 points guarantees play-off qualification, 11 points is almost certain (99.8%) and 10 points makes it very likely (87%). With nine points the chances drop to 46% and with eight points to only 11%.
As for direct qualification for the round of 16, 15 points would only provide a 16% chance of advancement.
The UCL stage rankings of double importance
The Champions League group stage standings carry significant weight, both on the pitch and financially. In addition to the top eight teams advancing directly to the Round of 16, group stage positions will determine home advantage for the first two knockout rounds.
Teams finishing 9th through 16th will play the second leg of the play-off round at home, while the top eight will host the second leg of the Round of 16. These positions also influence potential matchups up to the final.
On the financial side, UEFA rewards teams with €275,000 (approximately $300,000) for each position they rise in the group stage. For example, the first-place team earns €9.9 million (approximately $10.8 million); the eighth-place team receives €6.875 million (approximately $7.5 million); the 16th-place team receives €4.675 million (approximately $5.1 million); the 24th-place team earns €3.575 million (approximately $3.9 million); and the last-place team will receive €275,000 (approximately $300,000).
Additionally, the top eight teams will receive a €2 million (approximately $2.2 million) bonus for reaching the Round of 16, while teams finishing 9th through 24th will receive €1 million (approximately $1. 1 million). The eight teams that advance to the play-off round will earn an additional €1 million (approximately $1.1 million), matching the earnings of the other Round of 16 teams.
Get your game on! Whether you like NFL touchdowns, NBA buzzer-beaters, world-class football goals or MLB home runs, our app has it all.
Comments