Is Liverpool destined to keep the title? Can Manchester United really end up in the bottom half of the table?
The Premier League is back, with more games than ever live on Sky Sports, but what does the new campaign have in the store?
Liverpool wants to keep their crown. The champions are the biggest spenders of the Premier League in this summer's transfer window, while they want to build on the success of last season under Arne Slot.
But will they take the competition? Runners-up Arsenal have also been strengthened. Manchester City has undergone rebuilding. Can the winners of the Club World Cup Chelsea be contrary?
What about Manchester United and Spurs while they want to come back from record-run finishes? And which clubs run the most risk of relegation? To launch between lines, a new weekly strand in which the data behind the headlines are explained, we compare the predicted tables of Opta and Sky Sports – and we find interesting results …
Opta's judgment: Liverpool Top, Man Utd 12th!
Opta predicts that Liverpool will retain the Premier League title after last season's success under Arne Slot, where Arsenal comes second again, albeit with a much narrower margin than the previous term.
Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa are third, fourth, fifth and sixth respectively, which means that Opta's predicted top six mirrored the last top six last season.
Opta's supercomputer is far from convinced when it comes to Manchester United and Spurs. They are predicted that they will be 12th and 14th respectively, only three places higher than the previous term.
FA Cup and Community Shield winners Crystal Palace is expected to achieve a seventh placed finish, with Brighton, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest Complete the top 10.
On the other side of the table, Opta expects the promoted teams to return immediately for the third season, with Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland respectively 18, 19th and 20th, a long road of 17th placed wolves for expected points.
Sky Sports Say: Man Utd, Spurs to Rise
The Sky Sports Supercomputer is much more optimistic for Manchester United and Spurs in the coming season.
In fact, Ruben Amorim's side could even stand in the frame for a Champions League finish. She has the predicted table of Sky Sports fifth, between Chelsea in the fourth and Newcastle in the sixth.
Spurs, now under the management of Thomas Frank, and beaten on penalties by Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Super Cup final on Wednesday, is expected to be eighth.
Liverpool is once again on top of Arsenal as champions, with Manchester City in third place. But just like in Opta's table, the top two are only separated by a slim expected point margin.
An important difference at the bottom of the table is that it is expected to survive newly promoted Leeds at the expense of wolves.
Man utd better off, cherry, worse off
The two tables have important similarities, especially in the composition of their predicted top four. But there are also huge differences.
Manchester United are the biggest movers between the Opta and Sky sports tables, which are predicted to end seven places higher by Sky Sports. Spurs are the following, with six places higher in the Sky -Sporttafel, from the 14th to the eighth, while Everton is better off three places, predicts that they will sneak into the upper half.
On the other side of the scale, the Sky Sports table is much more pessimistic when it comes to Bournemouth, which means that Andoni Iraola's side six places lower than OPTA in 15th place after a series of selling.
Crystal Palace, Brentford and Brighton also receive considerably lower predicted finishes, in contrast to OPTA's optimism.
So why the differences? Both supercomputers are based on averages of 10,000 simulations, using the opportunities of Bookmaker, historical and recent team performance and transfer expenditure.
But the intricacies of the algorithms are different, so that the weight is placed on various factors, which helps to explain some of the differences between the two predicted tables.
Which parties have strengthened the most?
The summer transfer window is of course a key factor to predict how teams will perish. High expenditure does not guarantee success. Far from it. But it can be vital for the ability of a team to improve.
All this helps to explain why Liverpool is being tipped to maintain the Premier League title through both OPTA and Sky Sports. The Reds spent more on new recruits this summer than any other side, albeit during the tragedy of the death of Diogo Jota.
Their total expenditure is almost £ 300 million after the arrival of Florian Wirtz for a record compensation, along with the signing sessions by Hugo Ekitike, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong and Giorgi Mhamardashvili.
They are not the only ones who have been strengthened at considerable costs. The so -called Big Six spent more than £ 1 billion this summer. And in fact Liverpool's net spending is much lower than most of their rivals thanks to some large sales, including those of Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez.
Arsenal and Manchester City have to do work to shift their unwanted players, but their high net spends help to explain why they are predicted to push Liverpool this period closer.
Manchester United now has the highest net spending among all Premier League parties, although, according to their predicted finishes, their recruitment has been rated very differently this summer this summer by OPTA and Sky Sports.
Why the doubts about Man Utd?
Manchester United has overhauled their attack and made a trio of high -profile additions in Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko. So why the 12th placed prediction of OPTA?
Of course they come from a much lower starting point than Liverpool, the 15th in recent term are completed, but it can also have something to do with how they have assigned their funds so far.
Cunha, Mbeumo and Sesko all have enough to offer on one side that ended last season as the biggest underperformers of the Premier League compared to their expected goals. The lack of firepower and advanced edge had to be tackled.
But have they overlooked other parts of their team? Manchester United has invested almost twice as much in forwards if every other club has invested in a position this summer, but there has been no turnover in goal or in midfield and only £ 7 million spent on defenders.
This looks problematic as their problems were not limited to their attack last season. Ruben Amorim's side was far from solid in midfield or defense. Only nine Premier League parties gave more goals. Only eight were more expected goals.
And yet, despite those issues, Manchester United seems to start the new Premier League season with about the same staff as last season in Doel, in defense and in midfield.
No challenge of Chelsea?
Chelsea goes to the new campaign that is stimulated by their club World Cup triumph in the United States, but a title challenge continues them according to OPTA and Sky Sports Supercomputers.
Both predicted tables have the side of Enzo Maresca in fourth place, and with almost identical point totals, which ensures the qualification of the Champions League for a second consecutive season, but a long way too little push for Premier League Glory.
Just like their large six rivals, Chelsea has invested heavily in new recruits this summer. There is particularly excitement around Estevao, Joao Pedro and Liam Delap. They also start the campaign with a relatively favorable series of fixtures.
But they have not finished higher than third since their last title Triumph in 2016/17. Could a heavy run-in, if they are confronted with all Arsenal, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Manchester City, Manchester United, Brighton, Liverpool and Tottenham in the last 11 games, and the efforts of an Epic 2024/25 campaign, do they bite them too?
Another season of struggle for traces?
Spurs ended last season on a Europa League-winning High, but a 17th placed Premier League finish did it for Ange Postecoglou.
Frank has arrived from Brentford as his successor and the club have so far added six new players, including Mohammed Kudus from West Ham and Joao Palhinha on loan from Bayern Munich, who were both impressed by their UEFA Super Cup loss to Paris Saint-Germain.
Nevertheless, according to the supercomputers, there is no dramatic transformation in diversity. Sky Sports sees their prospects so much brighter than OPTA, which predicts a second consecutive finish of the soil half, but even places an eighth placed finish below the level they strive for.
Leeds for survival, wolves in danger?
The predicted tables make grim reading for Burnley and Sunderland supporters, but there is hope for Leeds, at least according to the Sky Sports Supercomputer.
The side of Daniel Farke, who gave Burnley to the title of the championship last season, is predicted to end 17th, fractional for Wolves, who lost this summer in Cunha in Cunha to Manchester United and Rayan Ait-Nouri to Manchester City.
The West Midlands Club has spent modestly this summer, their publication of a total of £ 48.4 million, which ensures a healthy profit of the £ 103.7 million that is received in the sale, but raises questions about the quality and depth available for head coach Vorror Pereira.
What do the Sky Sports writers say?
We have asked our journalists to also come up with their predicted tables.
On average, Liverpool came out as champions, with Manchester United and Spurs in Sixth and Seventh respectively.
Leeds, Sunderland and Burnley are tipped for the drop.