Manchester City were also beaten at Villa Park last season, but if that defeat came as a surprise, the most alarming thing about this 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa is that it was almost expected. Villa was stronger, faster and better organised.
Jhon Duran and Morgan Rogers have real quality with the ball at their feet, but the two Aston Villa scorers also embody the physicality that seems completely absent from City's game at the moment. Not only do they seem weak, but also slow.
This was evident in the opening seconds of the match when John McGinn dispossessed Josko Gvardiol, while Duran almost repeated the feat with Stefan Ortega in a second half that saw Aston Villa convincingly beat the reigning Premier League champions.
City looked vulnerable to the counter-attack throughout, as has become the new normal for this team. But trying to explain away this dip in form due to Rodri's absence is no longer feasible when so many aspects of their game are dysfunctional.
This Manchester City is not creating enough chances.
“We've scored a goal,” the City supporters chanted sarcastically as Phil Foden pulled one back late on. Rival fans are unlikely to be as sympathetic to the fate of the reigning champions, but they do have a point.
City have scored just ten goals in their last nine Premier League games over a two-month period. Incredibly, only Leicester, Everton and Southampton have scored fewer goals in that time. All this from a team that still has Erling Haaland up front.
The Norwegian takes the responsibility for the scoring slump on his own shoulders. “I look at myself first, I didn't score my chances. I have to do better because it's not good enough.” It now stands at two goals in eight Premier League games.
“I don't agree with him,” Pep Guardiola said when Haaland's comments were put to him after the match. “Without him we would be even worse.” Having recently pointed out that the cover options for Haaland are Phil Foden and Oscar Bobb, he is certainly right.
And it's not that simple when Haaland's ending goes haywire. His thirteen goals this season have come from an expected total of 13.21. In other words, he's slightly underperforming based on the quality of the opportunities coming his way, but not by much.
The bigger difference from previous seasons is that Haaland is not getting the opportunities he once did. His expected goals total of 0.78 per 90 minutes is high, but not as high as last season (1.03) or the season before (0.92). That is a special concern.
City's attacking play is now so dependent on feeding Haaland, even though he touches the ball so rarely that it sometimes doesn't seem that way. There was a time when the team's wingers scored many goals themselves. Now they have to supply him.
As a strategy, that has delivered two more Premier League titles, as well as the Champions League that City craved. But it does follow that they have become a little more predictable. There aren't that many different ways they can hurt teams right now.
Riyad Mahrez scored 15 goals in his last season for City, 24 the year before. When the Algerian cut inside and prepared to fire a shot, the crowd expected a goal. When Jack Grealish did the same against Aston Villa, he almost hit the corner flag.
Grealish, who had space to work against his former club but failed to take advantage, has not scored for City in more than a year. Savinho is still waiting for his first City goal. Raheem Sterling scored many easy goals at the back post. Not anymore.
Haaland may have just two goals in his last eight Premier League games, but no teammate has surpassed him in that time. Gvardiol is the only other player who has found the net more often. The defender's contributions are not merely a welcome addition, but now essential.
No longer scoring enough, no longer creating enough. How did this happen? The way to stop them has become too obvious. At Villa it was clear that Unai Emery's side were relatively comfortable with City in front of them, moving the ball slowly back and forth.
They need to move it faster and they need the off-the-ball movement. Ilkay Gundogan was once a master at that, but it's hard to expect a 34-year-old midfielder to continue making those bursts behind the backline. Bernardo Silva also looks tired.
The upshot is that while both Guardiola and Emery pointed to the period in the first half when City seemed to be building some momentum, the upshot is that they still didn't create enough chances to deserve anything from this match. Again.
The expected goals total of 1.03 highlights that this is not an anomaly caused by poor finishing. City scored exactly the number of goals at Villa that their creativity justified, as was the case when Manchester United lost 2-1 (expected goals: 0.95).
It is the first time this season that City have created so little in consecutive games and it raises the alarming thought in Guardiola that things may be getting worse. And how can he hope to make this team more creative when they're already conceding too much?
“I have to find the solution, the balance to create opportunities.” The fear is that losing one key player and the passage of time robbing him of a few others leaves him with a team no longer able to function as it should. At both ends of the field.
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