“In the summer the club thought about it and I said 'no, I don't want to make any signings',” Pep Guardiola revealed before Manchester City traveled to Brentford last week.
A day later, his side threw away a 2-0 lead and added a further two points to the collection they have dropped this season from the winning positions – which now rise to 14 – and in the process conceded their 28th and 29th goals of the season against.
For context, that's more than they conceded during the 2017/18 and 2021/22 seasons, with 16 games remaining in the season. And then we haven't even mentioned the three extra points they gave away in midweek after taking a 2-0 lead against PSG.
Guardiola and City have been forced into action. The alarm bells have been loud enough to sanction £130m this month for three newcomers: Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov and Vitor Reis. It's almost four times what they spent in the past four Januarys combined.
Jack Grealish has said he hopes the trio will be enough to bring the 'swagger' back to Man City, but adding a striker and two centre-backs won't solve their balance in the middle of the park without Ballon d' Or holder Rodri.
Even without their midfield helm, it's worth remembering that City were still top of the Premier League at the end of October, but also a reminder of how sharply the decline has followed.
Guardiola systematically shifts the blame for the club's ills onto his own chin. On this occasion, in retrospect, he can claim some responsibility; Deeper recruitment in the summer would have provided some protection for their deeper squad problems.
This is a team whose bench would one day find itself in the starting lineups of most title rivals. Pep once had Riyad Mahrez, Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus as backup up front.
Recruitment hasn't reached such heights in recent years, with Jeremy Doku, Grealish and Matheus Nunes only showing that kind of caliber in fits and starts. But City have far bigger concerns off the ball than on it, especially that Rodri-shaped hole at the base of midfield.
Compare him to players of similar importance. If Virgil Van Dijk had started one game for Liverpool this season, would they have enough reserves to top the Premier League?
The Spaniard is so good that his cruciate ligament injury has created a void at both ends of the pitch, leaving an injury-hit defense without the world's best screen and forcing Guardiola to find other ways to nurture creativity in the middle of the park.
The defensive exposure has put a spotlight on Kyle Walker's rapid decline and is an area Guardiola could have seen coming in advance. Walker had lost a yard of pace in the Euro 2024 final in July and by the time he was embarrassed by Timo Werner for Tottenham's fourth place in November, it was clear he would not find it again.
In the other box, Julian Alvarez – who started 31 Premier League games last season – gave City a decent win in August, but his departure left them without an attacking alternative to Erling Haaland, who has already played 27 full 90 minutes this season. .
Haaland's 17 goals in the league represent the most goals City have ever scored by a single player in any season under Guardiola. The arrival of Marmoush is welcome and not too soon.
Where no one could have seen City come unstuck in the way they have is in the sheer ruthlessness of their injuries. This is a team that has won the treble for four years, four Premier League titles and even the Super Cup and Club World Cup last year.
Only three of City's first-team outfield players are aged 31 or over, and Manchester City's average starting XI this season is younger than Liverpool's. It's not just about age, but also about intensity.
Pep thought he could get one more number from his squad, but the ruthlessness of both their schedule and his demands eventually meant something had to be done.
De Bruyne's drop-off is somewhat suspected, but Ruben Dias, John Stones and Nathan Aké have already missed 37 games between them, with the former now ruled out again due to an adductor problem and no immediate timetable for his return. Four of City's six league defeats came in the nine games he sat out. Can they reach those old levels again? Neither Guardiola nor City's backroom staff can be sure of that.
Their injuries have forced Manuel Akanji to start 25 games, straight from playing every minute of Switzerland's Euro 2024 quarter-final last summer and the vast majority of City's games last season. He himself has looked unfit and his defensive attributes have almost unanimously faded.
New signing Khusanov and the return of Stones will put some pressure on Akanji and City's wider defensive problems, even if other defensive signing Reis looks too young to make a serious impact in the near future after just 20 games in the professional football.
None of this solves the bigger problem of midfield, where Mateo Kovacic cannot single-handedly pull the strings like Rodri can. It is not only his fault, but it is also his job to strengthen a midfield that has already seen more rapid breakthroughs than in any season under Guardiola.
He regularly leads the play and with Bernardo Silva as his regular partner he has little cover when it happens. Part of that comes down to Guardiola's demands to defend by keeping the ball. But without Rodri, City also miss the player who regularly makes the most passes, and the most boundary-breaking passes, in the entire league.
The summer return of Ilkay Gundogan, who has also been tried in the role, was a nice moment of nostalgia, but he doesn't have the legs to play the games Rodri could play.
Guardiola opted for risk versus reward, knowing that Rodri had not suffered a significant injury or required an extended period away from the team in any of the previous eight seasons since his breakthrough at Villarreal. For the first time he has seen what happens when nothing comes of it.
“I don't want any new signings in January,” Guardiola said before Christmas. “I just want my injured players back.”
His reluctance has ultimately given way to City's results and achievements, but no matter how they plug the gaps elsewhere, the club cannot continue to suffer for long periods without their lynchpin.
There are still flashes of the old city without him: the recent return of De Bruyne's passing masterclasses, and Phil Foden finding himself among the goals. But fragile trust and swamped civil society persist.
It may take some time for him to get back to his best, much like Van Dijk did after his own ACL injury in 2020. A direct replacement will still be difficult to find, but until someone can carry some of the load consistently, this feels like just the beginning. of a renovation.
January has shown how expensive and painful the overhaul will be. £130 million has already been spent and City are still considering playing Stones or Akanji as a makeshift number six.
It may be Hugo Viana's first job this summer. There was life before Rodri, and there will be life after him, although it only, it seems clear, comes with another significant expense.
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