Mohamed Salah contract: Is Liverpool forward likely to stay at Anfield beyond the summer?

In June 2022, while on holiday in the turquoise-hued waters of El Gouna on Egypt's Red Sea, Mohamed Salah first had to consider leaving Liverpool.

His contract expired the following summer and two years of negotiations between his advisor, or rather his 'partner' Ramy Abbas, and the club's power brokers failed to produce a consensus.

Liverpool submitted three proposals, all of which were far removed from the terms set out on Salah's behalf. “I'm beginning to fear that we may not be able to agree on a new contract, Mohamed. Their latest offer is still far from what we want,” Abbas told him during a lengthy phone conversation.

It was not what Salah, who was determined to stay at Anfield, wanted to hear. His daughters were born in the city and loved school, their friends and their lives. Uprooting them was not on Salah's agenda.

But there were numerous problems with the negotiations; the player believed that a new contract should reflect his contributions to the club and his status as a decisive lead, while Liverpool were sustainable in predicting future service and any possible dips due to his age.

The division of pay between fixed and variable pay, the latter relating to individual and team performance, and the fine print of how bonuses would be applied, was a major sticking point.

Negotiations over Salah's image rights were also complex and Abbas described trying to get the extension over the line – which happened within a month after the pair thought no deal would be found – as “the hardest thing I have ever done .”

Until now. While there are similarities between the process of the forward's latest contract extension and the current state of play, the stakes and risks for both parties have increased dramatically.

Time is not on either side. Salah is 34 days away from signing a pre-deal with a foreign club and seven months before he can say goodbye to Anfield as a free agent.

Liverpool, still heavily reliant on his gifts, have not yet made an offer they think he would consider – or even slightly adjust. That is the sign that there is sufficient ground separating Salah's expectations from his acceptance, which is of course not an isolated event.

Liverpool have the massive problem that Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold are also out of contract this summer, and while the latter is Real Madrid's ace, sources claim the negotiations surrounding Salah are the most complex given his value – not just on the field, but also beyond.

It's admirable that he's fully aware of that. Abbas' “conservative estimate” prior to the July 2022 extension was that the “total amount received by Mohamed and the image rights companies over the coming years from both his playing contract and his image rights contracts would be somewhere between €54 million.” [£46.8m] and €62 million [£53.7m] per year.”

It's no wonder that Harvard Business School has chosen to highlight the length and breadth of those renegotiations in its entertainment, media and sports program for MBA students.

Jurgen Klopp said at the time that “extending a contract with a player like Mo is not something where you meet for a cup of tea in the afternoon and come to an agreement.”

Amid an exhausting process, there is a sea of ​​hope for those desperate to see Salah remain Liverpool's gold dust: the bottom line is that he wants exactly that, and so does the club.

That is the fundamental point underlying the negotiations, now the compromise.

Salah's side of the story…

The assessment of Salah's decision to stop in the mixed zone – only the third time he has done so for Liverpool – was interesting. Jamie Carragher branded it 'selfish' and said it would be a distraction ahead of the Champions League clash with Real Madrid.

The counter argument was: why should a player with 320 direct goals in 367 appearances for the club put public pressure on him to actually make a bid?

Perhaps the most overlooked element of Salah's comments on Sunday is that he felt the need to speak because he wants to stay. He is thinking not only about his future, but also that of his family, and there is minimal time to plan the next step.

'Why doesn't he just accept Liverpool's terms?'

Why would he? It feels silly to run the numbers, his status as the first player to reach double figures in Europe's top leagues for both goals and assists this season, to describe what he has contributed since signing in July 2017.

Salah is undoubtedly still Liverpool's point of reference and his influence extends beyond the pitch, where the club has benefited from new markets and sponsorship on the back of the Egyptian. He is valuable in a way and scale that no other player at Anfield has managed.

And he works hard for it; his mental and physical condition and his acumen in making business decisions are of the highest level.

It's why some of the examples used to show how players on the other side of 30 dropping out after mega-contracts – such as Mesut Ozil and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – felt insulting to Salah and the investment he made in did himself to keep going. excellence a habit.

“We know that clubs are reluctant to give big contracts to older players,” Abbas told the Harvard Business Study, “but Mohamed can play well into his 40s if he wants to.”

Salah's ideal is to continue to target Liverpool, will they make him an offer that makes that a reality?

Liverpool's side of the story…

Liverpool are top of the Premier League, top of the Champions League and feeling on top of the world in what has been billed as an uncertain, unsexy post-Klopp era. Liverpool have consistently proven that they get the big decisions right.

Their sustainable, noise-canceling approach has been successful and there is confidence in the club's strengthened operational structure, overseen by Michael Edwards.

Liverpool's job is not to give a player what he wants, but to use a wide lens and assess all the consequences of a single decision. They have no doubts about what Salah is capable of, what he is worth and how much he means to the club beyond performance and sentiment.

Players like him have earned an adjustment in parameters, but not at the expense of future roster planning, keeping the team's age profile healthy and its natural evolution.

Even if they keep Salah and Van Dijk, which is the victory all sides want, Liverpool will have to replace them in the not-so-distant future.

They cannot ignore that reality in their calculations. A trade-off will have to be made as to what to throw at Alexander-Arnold – especially the kitchen sink – so that he can defer his desire to join Real, sign an extension and command a staggering sum of money if he moves to Madrid leaves like he does. They represent pure profit on the books.

Letting the 26-year-old academy graduate leave for free this summer is a worse course of action than shaking hands with Salah and Van Dijk, giving them an exciting farewell and wishing them well.

There are several extensive equations at play.

Rightly or wrongly, as Liverpool survey the European landscape, they might take heart that there is no clear match for Salah. He wants to compete for top honors and remain central, so which of the top clubs has a place for him and can absorb the cost of a hefty signing-on fee and the wages he's worth?

Salah is very aware of how his strengths would also fit stylistically. “I can't tell Mohamed that he will fit better into Ancelotti's system, for example, or do much better with Guardiola,” Abbas explained. “Many other agents do that, but not me. Mohamed knows his football.”

The admiration that Salah receives from de Kop – as was the case after his missed penalty – will not be repeated anywhere else. His endorsements are partly a result of the club he plays for, the foundations they have created for him to thrive, and the emotional connection that can be built commercially.

Liverpool will have to make some concessions, but so will Salah.

How did we get here?

The frustration of a large section of Liverpool supporters is that the club – with a well-deserved reputation for being shrewdly managed – has pushed themselves into such a tight corner where three of their backbones can come out at once.

The answer is layered; tied to structural changes, a power shift, a season of Europa League football, an urgent midfield rebuild, Klopp's shock decision to resign and assessing assimilation under Arne Slot.

Sporting director Richard Hughes has inherited a chaotic situation completely out of his control, and he must solve the mystery.

It all goes back to the year 2022, starting with the departure of the man who filled that role before Hughes and took him on: Edwards, now CEO of football for owners Fenway Sports Group.

Julian Ward, his replacement as sporting director, announced he would also be leaving after just a few months in the role. Mike Gordon, FSG president and head of Liverpool's day-to-day operations, had abdicated his responsibilities.

Together with Edwards, he was instrumental in ensuring the club was world-class off the pitch and putting the pieces in place – including Klopp's landing grab – to reflect where it mattered most.

The pair's absence suddenly found the manager supreme because of the glory he had delivered and while no one could ever begrudge him such a status, being the manager of recruitment and contract renewals is not his strong point.

There were more pressing issues, such as reshaping a midfield devoid of dynamism, steel and variety. Europa League football is not the platform to entice players to commit to the club, so returning to the top flight was paramount.

Liverpool steered themselves back to healthy, happy territory, but then came the shock of Klopp's retirement.

When the German told FSG last November that he would end his heady Anfield spell this summer, the hierarchy could have moved quickly to sign Salah, Virgil and Alexander-Arnold before they knew he was leaving. That's not the way they like to do business.

“The club has known about my departure for some time,” Klopp explained in January. “By tying the players down and then saying, 'I won't be here anymore,' they would say, 'Nobody told us,' you can't work like that, especially with the relationship we have.

“There is enough time to do everything. These players like to be here. I'm sure.”

That remains true. There was a desire from both sides – Liverpool and the trio – to understand what Arne Slot's football would look and feel like, and how it would translate for them. To this end, discussions about new deals would have started in October.

Liverpool remains calm about the situation. Salah can't be blamed for thinking differently.