On the eve of the 30th season of MLS, the recent history suggests that the herons will not be the victory.
Inter Miami approaches the 2025 season with one goal in their sights, to lift MLS Cup for the first time. This is the final guaranteed year of the two-and-a-half-year-old deal of Lionel Messi and, although he can choose to extend, it represents the best chance of the team for success.
But while Inter Miami dominated the regular season in 2024 and set a new MLS record record, they were bad in the play -offs and left in the first round. This time they need a major improvement in the late season, but history is not on their side.
Last year's MLS Cup champions La Galaxy bounced back after they did not qualify for the play -offs in 2023. The season before did Columbus Crew did the same. In fact, four of the last five MLS Cup winners did not make the play -offs in the previous season. That does not predict well for the opportunities of Miami.
Is it coincidence or proof of a wider trend in MLS? It's probably a bit of both. The play-off structure with a final of one game increases the unpredictability and this pattern may not repeat itself in the future.
But the tight expenditure restrictions on MLS, combined with the position of the competition in the worldwide game, make it very difficult for championship teams to stay together. The 2023 Champions Columbus Crew lost Star -midfielder Jordan Morris van Middlesbrough halfway through the following season, while Cucho Hernandez and Cristian Ramirez followed him before 2025.
The ruling champions La Galaxy have already lost an important piece, 19-target striker Dejan Joveljić. The Galaxy was unable to offer him a designated players' contract for 2025 and Sporting Kansas City took the opportunity to bring in a proven goal scorer.
So is this probably in Inter Miami? Although they have lost midfielder Diego Gomez and Forward Leonardo Campana, there is virtually no chance that Messi will go elsewhere in the middle season. The herons may not be noticeably better in 2025, but it is unlikely that they are considerably worse.
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