Wednesday's dramatic 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain left Manchester City on the brink of an early exit from the Champions League, with their worst season under Pep Guardiola threatening to reach a new low.
However, in the Premier League, City have gone one step further in recent times, taking ten points from their last four games to boost their hopes of a top-four finish.
They have the chance to progress to the Champions League on Saturday when they welcome Chelsea to the Etihad Stadium.
This will be the last time City played Chelsea in the Premier League, having been below them in the table since 2016/17. On that occasion, Antonio Conte's Blues won 2-1 at Stamford Bridge on matchday 30 on their way to winning the title.
Enzo Maresca's title hopes are certainly over after Chelsea went five league games without a win either side of the New Year, although they ended their slump by beating Wolves 3-1 on Monday.
Which way will Saturday's heavyweight match go? Read on for our Opta-powered preview.
Hands up if you're excited to see Omar Marmoush and Erling Haaland together for @ManCity pic.twitter.com/zr31EUyvqo
— Premier League (@premierleague) January 23, 2025
What is expected?
City are considered favorites for Saturday's match, but with the champions assigned a 46.3% win probability, the supercomputer does not rule out a Chelsea result.
The chances of a draw are estimated at 23.6%, while Chelsea are given a 30.2% chance of victory.
City have lost their last three Premier League games straight after a European midweek match, the same number as in the previous 34 (21 wins, 10 draws). The last time the Citizens lost four such games in one campaign was in 2010-2011.
The supercomputer's season predictions put City's title expectation at 0.2%, but they made it into the top four in 65.6% of simulations, while Chelsea did so in 43.8% of scenarios.
City are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games against Chelsea. They have won five and drawn two since the 2-1 home defeat in May 2021, a result that delayed their crowning as Premier League champions.
Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 away Premier League games against City, winning 1-0 in February 2014.
They failed to score themselves seven times in that series, while they were also knocked out when the teams faced each other at Stamford Bridge on the opening matchday of 2024/25 and lost 2-0.
Time for a new look City?
After a run of just one win in nine Premier League games since early November (two draws, six defeats), City have now won three of their last four (D1).
They have scored fourteen goals in this run, more than in their previous eleven league games (13), putting them past Ipswich Town six times last Sunday and recording their biggest win of the Premier League season so far.
However, their vulnerability at the back was exposed again by PSG on Wednesday. Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland put City 2-0 ahead, but the home side came roaring back to win.
It was the first time City had lost a match by two goals in any competition since May 2021, a 3-2 Premier League defeat to Brighton and Hove Albion.
The collapse of City's title defense has prompted Guardiola to do something he doesn't often have to do: look for solutions in the January transfer market.
City have strengthened their backline by signing Abdukodir Khusanov from Lens and Vitor Reis from Palmeiras. With Ruben Dias doubtful for Saturday and Nathan Aké certainly out, City – who have already fielded eight different centre-backs in the Premier League this season – could throw one of their new boys into the firing line.
Khusanov should bring some old-fashioned toughness and ranks in the 94th percentile for defensive plays among all Ligue 1 players this season. Reis, meanwhile, won 66.2% of his aerial duels in Brazil's Serie A last season, a better figure than any of City's centre-backs have done in the Premier League this season.
At the other end of the pitch, City will be hoping Omar Marmoush can make an immediate impact following his £63million move from Eintracht Frankfurt.
Before leaving Eintracht, Marmoush scored 20 goals and 13 assists in 26 games in all competitions in 2024-2025. Along with compatriot Mohamed Salah, Marmoush is one of only two players from Europe's top five leagues to reach double figures for goals and assists in all competitions this season.
While Guardiola may prefer to soften his new signings, desperate times can call for desperate measures and we could get our first glimpse of a new City side this weekend.
Madueke on her way to stardom?
Noni Madueke was back among the goals as Chelsea beat Wolves on Monday, having scored a hat-trick against the same opponents in a 6-2 away win in August.
Only Diego Costa against Swansea City in 2014-15, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink against Tottenham in 2001-02 and Gianluca Vialli against Barnsley in 1997-98 (all five) have scored more goals against a team in a Premier League season for the Blues.
The winger will now look to impress against top opponents after beating the likes of Jadon Sancho, Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku to earn a starting spot in recent weeks.
Only Cole Palmer (14) and Nicolas Jackson (nine) have surpassed Madueke's six league goals for Chelsea this season, with only the former (77) attempting more shots than the winger (61), despite Maresca heavily rotating his wingers.
Of all Chelsea players, Madueke ranks second in terms of dribble attempts (54) and take-on ending carries (34) this season. Madueke clearly tops their charts for progressive carries of 10 yards or more, completing 89 in just 1,291 minutes of playing time. action.
Madueke's partnership with Palmer has been another big positive for the Blues this season.
Palmer and Madueke have created 25 chances for each other in the Premier League this season, the most of any two players. Meanwhile, Palmer's 17 chances created for Madueke are the most any player has created for a specific teammate this season.
With City likely to push high and leave space for Chelsea to capitalize on the break, Madueke will certainly pose a threat on the counter-attack.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Manchester City – Phil Foden
Foden – the 2023/24 Premier League Player of the Season – has hit form in recent weeks, scoring in three straight league games (five goals in total).
He has never scored four in a row before but should be in good spirits after his brace against Ipswich Town last weekend.
Chelsea Cole Palmer
City, for all their success, must harbor some regret over the 2023 sale of academy graduate Palmer.
Palmer scored a last-minute penalty in his first match against City after joining Chelsea in November 2023, but has failed to score in his two subsequent reunions with his former club.
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