The Supercomputer of Opta worked overtime after the first wave of the first legs of the Champions League quarter final, and it has devised a new favorite to go all the way in Europe Premier competition.
On the way to the last eight, Barcelona was considered the most likely team to lift the iconic trophy in Munich in May, prior to PSG and Arsenal, with a chance of 23.1 percent of glory.
On Tuesday, however, there were two crucial results that shaken the predictions and in particular one team was dramatically at the table.
Bayern Munich lost 2-1 to Inter Milan, finalists in 2023, so that Harry Kane and Co Plenty were done in northern Italy, while Arsenal Real Madrid surprised with a 3-0 victory to strengthen their own letters of faith.
As such, and perhaps not surprising, given the seriousness of the draw, Arsenal has now shot the table and are considered the most likely team that the Champions League wins.
The calculations of the supercomputer are made with the help of a combination of grim opportunities and Opta's Power Rankings, which in turn are derived from recent and historical team performance in the competition.
Opta's supercomputer assesses their chances at 28.4 percent – an increase of 12.8 percent compared to predictions for the competition – and the Gunners have a 96 percent chance of making the semi -final and 54.2 percent probability to reach the final.
Declan Rice's two free kicks and the fine finish of Mikel Merino have given them an advantage of three goals, but they still have to go to the Bernabeu and finish the job, which is not easy task.
Secondly, behind Arsenal are Barcelona, whose opportunities fall 0.7 percent to 22.4 percent, and on Wednesday evening on their quarter -final first leg on Borussia Dortmund will be attracted.
The Blaugrana are interesting enough the second half and the final, behind Arsenal and Inter, but still retain an advantage over the Italian giants in terms of their references to lift the trophy, it seems.
With regard to Inter, their victory over Bayern, their chances of progression increased to 82.4 percent – an increase of 51.5 percent – and their total title -winning opportunities have risen by 7.3 percent.
Fourth French champions PSG, who dropped two places from predictions for the game, but still very contenders with a drop-off of only 0.5 percent for their chances of glory.
The Paris Outfit gets a chance of 72.4 percent – an increase of 1.1 percent – from beating Aston Villa in the semi -final and confronted with Arsenal of Real Madrid in the last four, although the dominant victory of the Gunners apparently has the chances of 35 to the final of the final of Psg's chances percent.
There is then a considerable drop – off between the upper and lower halves of the prediction table – which seems somewhat unfair, given that two of them have not even played.
Bayern is bizarre a place from sixth to fifth despite losing, although their chances of winning the Champions League (3.7 percent) have decreased by 7.1 percent.
Their slender defeat by Inter means that they still have a chance of 17.6 percent to make the Semis, and 8.6 percent to reach the final.
Bayern is just ahead of Aston Villa, who takes PSG on Wednesday evening, and still get a fight of fights (27.6 percent probability) to reach the semi-final, although their general title data is assessed at only 3.2 percent, marginally abandoned from pre-teday predictions.
Borussia Dortmund, who is confronted with Barcelona on Wednesday, only gets a 20 percent chance of beating the Catalan giants, and 1.3 percent of winning the competition, but the biggest losers from the first round – in many ways – are Real Madrid.
Earlier a chance of 12.2 percent of the success and an oh so tight 49.8 percent chance of beating Arsenal in two legs, Real Madrid is now at 1.1 percent at the bottom of the stack to win the tournament.
They can be three to Arsenal on their way to the second stage, but an early goal at the Bernabeu, the fan suddenly in full voice, the pressure on Arsenal suddenly, and you would expect that a 4 percent chance of progression will be upright.
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