Premier League MD15: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

Bad weather saw Saturday's Merseyside derby postponed, but the rest of the Premier League action went ahead last weekend.

While Arsenal and Manchester City were drawn to Fulham and Crystal Palace respectively, Chelsea's good form continued as they claimed a 4-3 comeback win over Tottenham.

Enzo Maresca's team is now four points behind Liverpool, who still have a game in hand.

Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, suffered his first home defeat as Manchester United boss as Nottingham Forest won 3-2 at Old Trafford, while there was another big home win for Brentford, who beat Newcastle United 4-2.

Southampton lost to Aston Villa, Bournemouth broke the hearts of Ipswich Town and Leicester City fought back late against Brighton. But which teams were lucky enough to get the points, and who can consider themselves unlucky?

11 – This was the eleventh time that Tottenham have lost a Premier League match after being more than two goals ahead – at least four more such defeats than any other side in the competition's history. Trend. pic.twitter.com/Ur6PmYSPBR

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 8, 2024

Here we use Opta data to find out.

Unlucky losers: Manchester United

It wasn't a great weekend for Man Utd. News broke on Sunday that sporting director Dan Ashworth, who had tried hard to woo the club, had left his role after just five months at Old Trafford.

However, that announcement came after United's loss to Forest on Saturday, when Chris Wood's header – his club-record 25th Premier League goal for the visitors – proved decisive as new Red Devils boss Amorim suffered back-to-back losses.

Bruno Fernandes and Rasmus Hojlund were on target for United, but the defensive weaknesses evident under Amorim's predecessor Erik ten Hag were once again in trouble.

United finished with an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.8, but Forest scored three times. While that suggests the quality of finishing from Nuno Espirito Santo's team was high (their xG on target was indeed 1.5), it also suggests a bit of bad luck for Amorim's men.

Only Brentford and Chelsea (both eight) had more shots on target this weekend than United (seven), who also hit the woodwork. However, the Red Devils made two mistakes that led to goals and at the highest level you are punished.

Lucky winners: Fulham

Fulham continue to go above and beyond under Marco Silva and after taking an early lead against Arsenal, the Cottagers ultimately showed strong determination to hold on to a 1-1 draw, under plenty of pressure from the Gunners on Sunday.

Bukayo Saka thought he had headed in a late winner at Craven Cottage but VAR saw Gabriel Martinelli was offside before sending in the cross that found the England winger.

Although Fulham did not take all three points, a draw in such circumstances will almost certainly feel like a win for Silva's side and their supporters. And the statistics suggest they've been somewhat lucky.

20 – Arsenal have scored 20 goals from set pieces (excluding pens) in the Premier League in 2024; their highest number in a calendar year in the league (also 20 in 2009). Perfected. pic.twitter.com/HT0rT3Az7M

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 8, 2024

Not to take away from their strong defensive backline, but Fulham only collected 0.2 xG, the lowest total in the league over the weekend. They also had the fewest shots (two), although both did put shots on target.

Arsenal's 2.0 xG, meanwhile, was the fifth highest total on Matchday 15, and Fulham conceded four big chances (defined as an opportunity where a player is expected to score), with the Gunners only able to convert one. – when William Saliba scored the equalizer from close range.

Arsenal's shot conversion rate of 8.3% tells its own story. Had Mikel Arteta's team put on their shooting boots, the outcome would likely have been very different.

Unlucky losers: Tottenham

Ange Postecoglou is receiving quite a bit of attention at the moment, with his reckless playing style coming under fire from fans and pundits alike.

Yet Spurs actually collected a slightly higher xG (2.9) than Chelsea (2.8) in their 4-3 defeat on Sunday.

Sure, it's a bad look that Tottenham gave up a 2-0 lead and went down 4-2 before Son Heung-min grabbed another lead in stoppage time, but The Blues were awarded two penalties.

Without those penalties, Chelsea's xG was 1.25, so Spurs' defense perhaps didn't give up the quality of chances you'd expect for a team that had scored four goals.

That said, they conceded seventeen shots, with only three teams allowing more shots over the weekend, and there is no doubt that Postecoglou will need to find a way to tighten up at the back.

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