A new year is upon us, but there was little movement in the Premier League as the second half of the season kicked off last weekend.
Arsenal missed the chance to move within three points of leaders Liverpool after the stalemate with Brighton, but the gap at the top did not widen as Manchester United held the Reds to a 2-2 draw on Sunday.
Chelsea, meanwhile, missed the chance to move up to third as their recent slump continued, dropping points in a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace, while another team in trouble, Tottenham, conceded a lead in their defeat to Newcastle United.
Manchester City, meanwhile, recorded back-to-back wins for the first time since October, but Brentford were the big winners as they recorded their first away win of the season with a 5-0 defeat of struggling Southampton.
But which teams were lucky enough to get the points, and who can consider themselves unlucky? Here we use Opta data to find out.
Lucky winners: Arsenal
Arsenal had regained some ground at the top of the table, with three straight wins over the festive period putting them back in the mix in the title race.
However, despite a positive start on the south coast which saw them take an early lead, the Gunners were unable to hold on as they were held to a 1-1 draw against Brighton and have now failed to win four of their last nine Premier League games to win. if he is in the lead at halftime.
Ethan Nwaneri was a shining spark for them in the first half, becoming only the sixth player to score more than one Premier League goal before turning 18, but given the quiet second half they may consider themselves lucky not to have left empty-handed have left. .
Arsenal created chances worth 0.88 expected goals (xG), the fourth lowest total of the weekend, and collected just 0.29 of them in a second half in which they had just one shot on target.
Brighton, on the other hand, finished with 1.52 xG, improving their performance and scoring with one of their two 'big' chances (defined as a chance where a player would be expected to score) after the break.
The Seagulls have now drawn their last four matches, so perhaps this result wasn't such a big surprise after all.
Unlucky losers: Fulham
Now Fulham technically didn't lose – in fact, they twice fought from behind to win a 2-2 draw against Ipswich Town – but given the stats, Marco Silva will feel his team could have won on Sunday.
Sam Szmodics gave Ipswich a first-half lead before a dramatic second period at Craven Cottage saw three penalties scored.
Liam Delap's penalty was sandwiched between two by Raul Jimenez, who scored Fulham's second equalizer in the 91st minute, but Silva was left fuming after the match over certain decisions he felt did not go Fulham's way.
2 – After Fulham's 69th minute penalty and Ipswich's 71st, this is the shortest difference between two penalties in one half of a Premier League match since Opta has had exact goal times in the competition (from 2006 to 2007). Blink. pic.twitter.com/ua9HubxtHU
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 5, 2025
The Cottagers dominated possession and had 15 shots, more than double Ipswich's tally, while only three teams in the league improved their 2.24 xG, although Jimenez's penalties inflated that.
Fulham's success rate of 13.3% may tell a different story. It compares poorly with Ipswich's 28.6%, so perhaps Silva's team can even be counted among the lucky ones to claim a point.
Unlucky losers: Liverpool
This is another draw, and although Liverpool didn't lose, they dropped more points, missing the chance to move nine points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand.
The Reds were strong favorites against United who had not won in four games, not to mention their dismal record at Anfield, where the Red Devils had not scored in the league since 2018.
However, Amad Diallo's 80th minute equalizer saved Ruben Amorim's side a point, with Liverpool unable to capitalize on their strong form despite their chances.
Only Brentford (4.46) surpassed Liverpool's 2.82 xG this weekend, with the Reds also having four big chances, although only Mohamed Salah, from the penalty spot, got his. A big chance is defined by Opta as an opportunity where a player is expected to score.
However, Liverpool's unbeaten run continues and they can consider themselves somewhat fortunate that Harry Maguire did not bury his golden chance in the final seconds to end that run.
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