The Premier League threw a number of crunch matches on matchday 23, with effects at both ends of the table.
Liverpool moved six points clear at the top after a 4-1 thumping of struggling Ipswich, while Arsenal eased to a 1-0 win over Wolves despite a controversial red card that had everyone talking.
Manchester City leapfrogged Chelsea in fourth after coming from behind to beat them 3-1 on Saturday, while Nottingham Forest remained third but were hammered 5-0 by European chasing Bournemouth.
Everton also gained more breathing space as they moved further out of the relegation zone, beating Brighton 1-0 to mark David Moyes' 700th Premier League match with a win.
700 – Today, David Moyes takes charge of his 700th game in the Premier League (430 Everton, 34 Manchester United, 38 Sunderland, 198 West Ham United), becoming the third manager to reach that figure in the competition after Arsène Wenger ( 828 (828 (828 (828 (828 (828)) and Alex Ferguson (810). Landmark. pic.twitter.com/uaslydwo4l
– Optajoe (@Optajoe) January 25, 2025
The biggest shock, however, saw Leicester City move out of the relegation zone after ending their seven-match losing streak in the Premier League with a 2-1 win over Tottenham, with the pressure aiming for Ange Postecoglou.
But which teams were lucky enough to get the points, and who can consider themselves unlucky? Here we use OptA data to find out.
Lucky Winners: Manchester United
Ruben Amorim made a splash after their defeat to Brighton in the Premier League, claiming they were “the worst team perhaps in the history of Manchester United”.
After bouncing back with a win over Rangers in the Europa League on Thursday, United followed that up by beating Fulham 1-0 at Craven Cottage thanks to Lisandro Martinez's deflected strike.
Despite getting three points on the board which took them as high as 12th, United's recent struggles in front of goal almost came back to haunt them again, and they have a bit of luck to thank for the win.
They managed a measly 0.25 expected goals (XG) overall on Sunday, the lowest of any team on the weekend, and scored from their only attempt on goal (four shots overall), with Bernd Leno unable to hold out despite the fact that he was given a hand It.
Fulham, on the other hand, finished with 0.67 xg from their nine shots and also saw a shot blocked on the line by replacing Toby Collyer, with goal-line technology needed to ensure it was not completely crossed.
United had to wait until 41:57 for their first shot in this match (Matthijs de Ligt), their joint longest wait for an attempted goal in a Premier League match this season (also 41:57 vs Arsenal in December), so while They did get a much-needed win, but there are still issues to address for Amorim.
Unlucky Losers: Wolves
The result between Arsenal and Wolves almost played a second fiddle to the ongoing debate over Myles Lewis-Skelly's 43rd minute red card, but in the end it was Arsenal who secured a win as both teams went to 10 men.
Riccardo Calafioro grabbed the winner 16 minutes from time, just four minutes after Joao Gomes was sent off, subjecting Vitor Pereira's men to a fourth straight league defeat. And combined with Leicester's win, it also saw them drop into the bottom three.
There was little to shout about between the two sides based on the stats as Wolves managed 0.74 xg to Arsenal's 1.0 and both teams had nine shots, with the hosts having one more try at Target than the Gunners.
All those efforts on target came after the break when they had a man advantage, but they couldn't use it as they struggled to create real scoring chances, according to their 0.29 xg in the second half.
Pereira will know this was a missed opportunity, although perhaps it should not have come as a surprise as Arsenal are the only team in Premier League history to have won more games (38) than they have lost (35) when a player is sent away.
Lucky Winners: Aston Villa
For the second week in a row, Aston Villa were held to a draw, and in these circumstances they were perhaps fortuitous to leave with all the points.
Villa were brilliant in the first half of their 1-1 draw with West Ham on Sunday, creating 0.56 xg before the break as they had eight shots, three on target, while Emiliano Martinez was not tested once.
However, Jacob Ramsey's early opener was canceled out by Emerson in the 70th minute as a much-improved West Ham rallied, with Graham Potter's side also running out a winner at the offside flag in the second half-time.
In setting up Ramsey's strike in the eighth minute, Ollie Watkins became only the second Villa player to be directly involved in 100+ Premier League goals (61 goals, 39 assists), joining Gabriel Agbonlahor, although he achieved it in 108 fewer appearances .
100 – Ollie Watkins has become the second Aston Villa player to be directly involved in 100+ Premier League goals (61 goals, 39 assists), after Gabriel Agbonlahor. Watkins reached the century in 108 fewer appearances than Agbonlahor (169 V 277). Talisman. pic.twitter.com/ddyzlbsxw3
– Optajoe (@Optajoe) January 26, 2025
Villa were outscored in the second half, giving chances worth 0.98 xg, including four 'big' chances (defined as a chance where a player is expected to score).
Unai Emery's side have now failed to win four of the 11 Premier League games they have scored first this season (W7 D2 L2). That's more than in the 19 games they opened the scoring in last term (W16 D2 L1), while it also saw them lose ground in some of the other teams chasing Europe.
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