Sport
Premier League Predictions and best bets: Manchester City and Manchester United to suffer defeats
Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, is back to provide more insight into the Premier League ahead of a busy midweek card.
Everton vs Wolves, Wednesday 7:30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 AND WIN £250,000!
As pressure mounts on Sean Dyche, back to basics is the order of the day to restore momentum.
This leads to his teams playing even safer than normal in an attempt to keep a clean sheet. Therefore, as punters we can rely on the under 2.5 goal limit at 4/5 with Sky Bet in a match where the tension will be high.
Everton are the king of the under 2.5 goals betting market, with eight of the last ten taking care of business. This should be another one as the Dyche boys get an important win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 AND WIN £250,000!
Fair play if you have the courage to back Manchester City on 2/7 with Sky Bet as they attempt to complete their extraordinary seven-match winless run. I'll take the very simple approach: if I've seen evidence that Pep Guardiola can fix City without possession, I'll think about jumping on their prize. This is not the time yet.
They were pummeled by Liverpool in every department and Nottingham Forest are City's worst nightmare tactically as they will defend deep and then use their speed and strength on the counter.
So far in the entire Premier League season, only Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton – the three promoted clubs – have had more big chances than Man City in the Premier League. That's crazy.
There are plenty of live Forest angles to consider, but the highlight is both teams scoring at 20/23 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Both teams to score (20/23 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Liverpool, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 AND WIN £250,000!
One potential asset on my radar is the midweek domestic matches and card lines.
There are indications that the weeknight kick-off does not produce the same number of tickets as the overall season average, and that it offers gambling opportunities.
Last season, Premier League matches played on Tuesday to Thursday averaged 3.9 cards per match, which was lower than the overall season-long average of 4.4.
That 0.5 card difference may not seem like much, but it can make a huge difference to low-margin prices and card market outcomes.
Andy Madley is also a very lenient referee. Only Paul Tierney averages fewer cards per match than Madley's 3.96 referees who have officiated 20 or more Premier League games. In a match I fully expect Liverpool to win without much fuss, could drift the match and the 28/1 on no player coming on is an outsider when it comes to prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Southampton vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 AND WIN £250,000!
This is a difficult situation for Southampton, who have been hit hard by injuries and suspensions in this match.
Their two best goalkeepers are missing through injury and the trip to Brighton proved costly, with Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Tyler Dibling picking up their fifth booking of the season, so they are missing for this one.
Chelsea are just 1/4 short of leaving with maximum points with Sky Bet, so we need to increase that price by adding Southampton to win the most tickets into the mix, giving odds of 23/10 with Sky Bet.
Russell Martin's side are aggressive without the ball and have been dealt more cards than their opponents in seven of their last eight Premier League games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Arsenal vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 AND WIN £250,000!
Manchester United is back then? Or is it more likely that they are about to be brought back down to earth by playing one of the best teams in Europe?
I think Ruben Amorim knows how tough this match will be based on what he's seen so far. His team were flattered by the 4-0 win over Everton, scoring four from just 11 shots and somehow escaping conceding during a very shaky first-half performance.
If they give Arsenal the same opportunities, they will be punished. United are 13/2 with Sky Bet ahead of the win, which tells the story of how much of a shock an away win would be.
With Martin Odegaard spinning and Bukayo Saka roaring, Arsenal have the tools to cover their -1 handicap and win by more than one goal at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1
Aston Villa vs Brentford, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 AND WIN £250,000!
Aston Villa are now eight games without a win in all competitions, which has seen them slide into the bottom half of the Premier League.
The curse of overachievement and exceeding expectations is taking its toll on Unai Emery's team, who look flat and easy to score against. It is now just one clean sheet in Villa's last eighteen Premier League games and they have conceded a whopping 34 goals in that period, which equates to an average of 1.88 per game. Only Wolves and West Ham have conceded more goals in that time.
However, Brentford have been noticed by the market and are shorter than I expected at 16/5 with Sky Bet – a price that isn't attractive based on their terrible record. So goals are the game where both teams have to score and more than 2.5 goals looks good in 20/23.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (20/23 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Brighton, Thursday 7.30pm
Brighton proved against Southampton that they overachieved defensively.
Fabian Hurzeler's side have the sixth worst defensive performance, according to expected goals statistics, and can consider themselves lucky to be so high in the table based on that performance. Going forward, they are a threat with Kaoru Mitoma in good form, but Fulham should be given big chances.
My eyes are drawn to Alex Iwobi who scores at 100/30. He has scored 12 shots in his last five games and scored twice as he took up some very dangerous positions from the right wing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Bournemouth v Tottenham, Thursday 8.15pm
Andoni Iraola will land a top job soon enough if he continues to play such exciting, dangerous and consistent football for Bournemouth.
Even without their talisman in Antoine Semenyo and skipper Lewis Cook at Wolves, they played with the same intensity and quality as their press completely dominated. They are like clockwork under Iraola – and they look to be playing strong here to beat Tottenham, who can beat anyone on their day but really feel the pressure playing twice a week without their key defensive reinforcements. The 13/8 with Sky Bet for the house is a really attractive price to think about.
