Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to give his Premier League insight and thinks Man Utd are being overlooked when betting against Newcastle.
Aston Villa vs Brighton, Monday 7.45pm
It makes sense to support Brighton as an outsider in these types of games. The type of forward they like to recruit usually thrives when playing in transition, but struggles when they need to break through a low block. To score just one goal from 67 shots in home games against Brentford, Southampton and Ipswich this season tells you all you need to know about how weak Brighton's attackers are when it comes to finishing.
Despite going six games without a win, Fabian Hurzeler's side have beaten Bournemouth, Man City, Newcastle, Tottenham and Man Utd this season and drawn with Arsenal, where their opponents have given them more room to play. At 5/6 with Sky Bet they are one of the best bets on the card on the Villa Park double chance.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Brighton double chance (5/6 with Sky Bet)
Ipswich v Chelsea, Monday 7.45pm
Ipswich have now lost five of their last six games – only Southampton (2) have fewer points over that period. Things are getting pretty bleak for them.
Confidence seems to have disappeared in the final third with the free-flowing, flexible attacking patterns that we saw tear apart in the Sky Bet Championship last season as a distant memory. They have scored just two or more goals in four of their 18 games this season, and have scored zero in four of their last six. Omari Hutchinson's form has completely declined, while Liam Delap is now feeding on leftovers.
A Chelsea win to nil at 7/4 with Sky Bet looks like a great way to boost the outright away win prize.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Manchester United vs Newcastle, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
I'm swimming against the tide here and remain quite positive about Manchester United's prospects under this manager, especially from a defensive point of view. The structure and organization are so much safer than under Erik ten Hag and can easily lead to positive results if confidence returns and Bruno Fernandes is no longer sent off the field.
The data on projected targets suggests that Ruben Amorim's influence is already stabilizing them somewhat, even if the results make that hard to believe.
The market here has shifted too much towards the unreliable Toon, who have won only three in the last ten games in all competitions and were defeated 3-2 by Ten Hag's team at Old Trafford last season. I put on my crash helmet and advise Man Utd on the no-bet draw on 10/11 with Sky Bet, without any confidence purely based on price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brentford vs Arsenal, Wednesday 5.30pm
Thomas Frank lost two more key members of his Brentford backline, taking the total number of injured players to 11 in the stubborn draw at Brighton. Such exhaustion will strike sooner or later and this could be the point where the tide turns.
Arsenal, without receiving much praise, seem to have the edge again when it comes to winning games. Declan Rice's return to form may have something to do with that. He has looked more like himself in recent weeks and carries a big goal threat from midfield.
He scored the win over Palace and went close with two goals in the comfortable 1-0 win over Ipswich. The 18/1 for him to score first with Sky Bet is too big. Support it.
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