Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, is back to provide more insight into the Premier League as he searches for value in the markets.
Aston Villa – Manchester City, Saturday 12.30pm
Trying to understand the demise of Manchester City is like looking at an algebraic equation. It doesn't make much sense. Yes, a slight decline was expected without Rodri, but winning just one match out of eleven in all competitions? It's incredible.
We must continue to find betting opportunities to take on City, while these remain unusually dismal. Villa has the direct runners on the counter in Ollie Watkins and especially Morgan Rogers to make big chances happen. The obvious bet then is for Aston Villa to score two or more goals on 11/8 with Sky Bet, as City have conceded at least twice in 10 of their last 11 games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brentford's success rate in front of the home goal is bizarrely good. Almost too good to be true. In their eight games so far, they have scored 26 goals from their 112 shots, meaning their conversion rate is 23.21 percent.
If they continue at this pace, it will be the highest ever (since 2003-04) in a Premier League season, with the next best being Manchester City at 18.93 percent in 2022/2023.
Runs of this abnormal nature usually correct themselves in time, so I'm happy to be able to ensure that this pace will slow dramatically and the targets will dry up somewhat by the Bees at home. Nottingham Forest are the third best defensive team in the Premier League based on goals conceded and expected goals conceded, so this could be the match where Brentford's unstoppable pace in front of goal hits the buffers. Forest on the draw no bet on 11/10 with Sky Bet looks like a big prize.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Nottingham Forest draw no bet (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Ipswich vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Eddie Howe's record as Newcastle boss on the road against newly promoted teams makes his side very easy to like here. They scored 24 goals in those eight games, conceding just five and suffering just one defeat: a 1-0 deficit to Luton.
In five of those games they managed to cover their -1 handicap and such is the good atmosphere after their recent performances against Brentford, Leicester and Liverpool that it is worth banking on the handicap to make another return .
There's 15/8 on offer with Sky Bet, which means we'll get a payout if Newcastle win by two or more goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
West Ham vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton are West Ham's bogey team. It's a record that makes little sense, but the Hammers have won just one of the last fourteen meetings since 2012 and Brighton are unbeaten in all seven Premier League meetings at the London Stadium.
Fabian Hurzeler could do with a positive result and performance as Brighton have looked a bit one-dimensional and stale of late. He won just two of the last eight and failed to keep a clean sheet in that period.
Conceding seven goals against Fulham, Leicester and Crystal Palace doesn't inspire much confidence in their defensive process, so in a tight match without much value in the head-to-head match, it makes sense for Jarrod Bowen to score his 100th career goal. He is the catalyst for all the good things West Ham does. There is 2/1 with Sky Bet available at its all time price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Since the last international break, if you had simply backed every odd-on favorite to win in the Premier League with a £1 bet on the nose, you would now have lost £8.80.
Shocks are widespread and are taking place across Europe.
Last weekend, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Juventus, AC Milan, PSV, Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City all failed to win their matches despite coming off heavy favourites.
The brutal schedule explains why many of these elite teams are nowhere near their best. Some players have been playing almost non-stop for 18 months now after last summer's European Championship and it is proving to be a bit of a draw for opponents who don't have to play manic schedules. I think we could see similar patterns of results this holiday season, so I'm going to take on short-price favorites whenever possible and when the price is right.
Palace showed in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday that they have the tools to frustrate and hurt Arsenal. They really step it up when they play a top eight team at home, losing just one of the last eight at Selhurst Park and that was a cracker. They can avoid defeat again, with Palace's double chance attractive at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Everton – Chelsea, Sunday 2 p.m
The Premier League goal rush continues and when the opportunity presents itself, backing goals at the right price is a sensible betting strategy. Over the last 49 matches, the average number of goals per match has increased significantly to 3.39 per match and bettors over 2.5 goals have successfully cashed in 70 percent of matches. Even the 1.5 goal limit is battered by goals, as two or more goals were scored in 44 of those 49 matches. Even the three Premier League Carabao Cup matches on Wednesday evening went above 2.5 goals.
Chelsea's fixtures are averaging 3.52 goals per game in the Premier League this season and the positivity at Goodison Park over the club's takeover could lift the mood to play this match at a faster pace.
Both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals seems like a tempting bet at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Fulham vs Southampton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Can you name me a better left-back in the Premier League than Antonee Robinson? It's not difficult. The rampaging Fulham defender offers so many future prospects, but is also a fantastic one-on-one defender who has quickly become Fulham's most important and consistent player. No player has made more successful open play crosses in the Premier League this season, and no player has made more overlapping runs in the competition.
This ensures that he creates a large number of opportunities for his teammates; he has provided six assists this season, including two at Anfield last weekend. He's 100/30 with Sky Bet for another.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Leicester vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm
Vitor Pereira could be a compelling watch if his Sky Sports News interview when he was looking for the Everton job is anything to go by. The Portuguese boss also has a history of making an immediate impact at clubs. On all eight occasions when he has taken over a top club, he has won the first match in the dugout.
That new manager bounce, added to Leicester's poor underlying figures that indicate a big overperformance with their results, makes me want to back Wolves here with the 10/11 on the no-bet draw that stands out on Sky Bet.
Even the 13/8 on the nose for the away win is appealing, especially if Mads Hermansen, City's star man in goal this season, does not recover from his groin injury.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Wolves draw no bet (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United – Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm
Bournemouth have scored the second-highest number of shots in the Premier League this season (270) – and only Manchester City (282) have recorded more shots. This, together with their strong expected goals figures (32.96), which are the second highest in the league, shows that Andoni Iraola's football is functioning very well from a chance creation point of view.
What holds it back somewhat is the quality of the player in the forward areas he has at his disposal, which is why the Cherries are recording such sizeable shot numbers.
A major underperformance in attack when assessing actual goal return shows that they are a team that needs plenty of chances to find the net, so they are always interesting in the total shot market.
Bournemouth are averaging 16.5 shots per 90 this season and will not be shy about heading to Old Trafford to play a team who are clearly still learning to tie their shoes under their manager. It will be a slow and long process for Ruben Amorim to convey his philosophies. Bournemouth recording 14 or more shots at 11/10 with Sky Bet is one of the best bets of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Bournemouth 14+ match shots in total (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
It's hard to argue that Liverpool are just 7/10 short here with Sky Bet. It's the right price and I expect they'll make it a peaceful rather than chaotic affair. Arne Slot doesn't allow chaos to ensue in games, he wants control and so often this season we have seen Liverpool's way of taking the sting out of games at the right time and then being clinical when their opportunities arise. Spurs can't be Spurs if Liverpool have their way.
However, it won't stop me from having Dejan Kulusevski come to this party again. What a machine that is.
Since moving into his new central attacking role in midfield, which allows him to roam dangerously around the pitch and direct the Spurs press, his attacking output has become much more consistent than previous seasons. He has been targeted in 17 of his last 19 games, both for club and nationally, by punters backing him for a shot on target, scoring eight times in that run, including four on the spin. His 10/11 odds on target price and his 100/30 odds at any time are both interesting at Sky Bet.
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