Our football betting expert, Jones Knows, is back to provide more insight into the Premier League ahead of the weekend card.
Everton – Liverpool, Saturday 12.30pm
Are Everton dangerous outsiders here? This feels like a free goal for them after their important win over Wolves, easing the pressure ahead of a dreadful run of games with Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City after this one against the title favourites.
That Wolves win marked the first time Everton had scored three or more goals in a Premier League match in 42 games. During that period they averaged less than one goal per game, with just 0.95 goals per 90.
The last eight Merseyside derbies have seen punters backing below the 2.5 goal line and this feels like another opportunity to back this line at 6/5 with Sky Bet. Liverpool have had a rough and intense schedule of late, something which affected their persistent but underwhelming performance at Newcastle. They may not be at their best here with a runner's low-scoring away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Aston Villa vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Goals, goals, goals is starting to become the theme of the Premier League season again, so if a match has all the makings of a goal-fest, punters should act accordingly to back the overlines.
In the 30 Premier League games since the recent international break, the average number of goals per game is 3.39, with 14 of those games scoring more than 3.5 goals. Villa and Southampton were responsible for four of those matches and certainly bring a very healthy total match goal average to the table this season. The line of more than 3.5 goals seems interesting in this one on 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-2
Brentford vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
When it comes to songs, Alexander Isak is probably the most complete Premier League striker, right?
Yes, Erling Haaland is the most ruthless goalscorer, but Isak's speed, mobility, guile and finishing ability are something that could take Newcastle to some special places if he can stay consistent. The Swede was excellent against Liverpool and largely gave Virgil van Dijk the lead – something not many strikers have done this season.
If Newcastle and Isak can match the intensity and bite in that great 3-3 draw against Liverpool, then Brentford will not see which way they have gone and that explains why Eddie Howe's side are 13/10 favourites. But it's hard to predict which version of it will appear.
However, Isak has scored in both of his appearances against Brentford and only Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer have averaged more goals per game than Isak's tally of 0.56 since arriving at Newcastle. He is the bet here to score first at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Manchester City looked more like themselves in the final third of the 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest, but there is still something wrong with possession. Forest caused major problems in transition and the lack of legs in midfield will still be a problem for Pep Guardiola, who was fortunate to see Chris Wood miss a great chance to make it 1-0 when he got through on goal.
And Palace have the pace and strength in attack, plus a very smart manager in Oliver Glasner to cause problems. I'll be surprised if they don't take the same approach as Aston Villa, where they played very direct and quickly got the ball forward to Ismaila Sarr, who enjoyed playing on the counter and scored a goal for herself. He's a great prize with Sky Bet at 7/2 to score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Ismaila Sarr scores (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Leicester vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
Happiness is an important part of life – and Ruud van Nistelrooy gets his share of it. Not only has he landed a job in the Premier League by being in the right place at the right time, but he has also somehow managed to win a football match by two goals despite losing the shot count of 8-31 and expected goals ratio of 1.67-3.10. . The thing about luck is that it eventually runs out, as I struggle to see anything other than a Brighton win when the Leicester we've seen all season turns up here.
The Foxes have produced 18.14 shots per game in the Premier League – the most of any team as their defense is overworked. Double Brighton to win and make sure they have 16 or more odds at 13/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I'm very keen on Manchester United matches being low-scoring, while Ruben Amorim treats matches like tests. It is a very bold move for him to continue to drop and change his players in a world where results determine everything, especially at a club like Manchester United.
It's difficult to build play patterns and consistency in forward areas when you're constantly refreshing the side. Getting a team to score goals is much more difficult than getting the defense in order.
We know that Nottingham Forest will play a very defensive game under Nuno Espirito Santo, who likes to keep things tight. This calendar year, only Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City have a better expected goals process than Forest, with just 1.25 in expected goals per 90. I can see this being a tough nut for this United team to crack. The under 2.5 goal line at Evens seems like a game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (even with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Arsenal, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
When the schedule gets as intense as it is now, shocking results happen.
This seems like the candidate for such a scenario on Super Sunday, where Arsenal can easily upset Sky Bet at 15-8 for many reasons. Looking back over recent seasons at this time of year, where a weekend match follows a midweek fixture, the Gunners have suffered two defeats to Everton, been beaten at Aston Villa and drawn 1-1 with Southampton.
And Fulham is a serious team that is having a great season under Marco Silva.
They have won the expected goals battle in 13 of their last 15 games, including against Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa. This shows that Fulham are putting in consistent levels of performance, limiting teams in their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end. That makes them look like a huge prize on the no-bet draw with Sky Bet at 100/30.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Ipswich – Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm
An Ipswich centre-back is going to score soon, and I want to follow him when he does. Kieran McKenna has attempted to make Ipswich more of a threat from set pieces with the arrivals of Dara O'Shea and Jacob Greaves – two very dangerous centre-backs when it comes to attacking set pieces.
It looks like it's working as Town's centre-backs have had 24 shots in succession this season, which equates to an expected goal score of 1.89. As the magic wand of Leif Davis' left foot delivers the goods, one arrives.
Both O'Shea and Greaves are 14/1 to score anytime with Sky Bet – some longshots to seriously consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Whether or not Chelsea are in this title race, there is no hiding the fact that they have won 13 of their last 19 Premier League games. This also looks like a great time to play against Tottenham, given the schedule that is making life tough for Ange Postecoglou, who is now under pressure.
An important part of a manager when managing big clubs is rotating the squad to hopefully avoid injuries – some do it better than others. And Spurs are a team that has suffered more injuries and felt more fatigued than others.
This will be their fifth match in fifteen days. It was also an intense series against Man City, Roma, Fulham and Bournemouth.
Chelsea look one of the best bets of the weekend for the away win at 5/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Chelsea beat Tottenham (5/4 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Wolves, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
It's going to be hard to sell this bet – but I really like the under 2.5 goals line at 5/4 with Sky Bet – despite these two teams being terrible defensively. Wolves have conceded 2.19 goals per game this calendar year and West Ham have conceded 2.15.
Of the ever-present Premier League teams at that time, we faced the worst two defences.
However, Gary O'Neil said after that defeat at Everton: “I have to find a way to give the group a better chance on Monday night.”
He talked about Wolves not being able to play the starting line at Everton – all four goals came from set pieces. So if you read between the lines, he's basically going to put 11 men behind the ball at the London Stadium and turn on low-block mode to frustrate the Hammers, who won't get any sympathy from a disgruntled fanbase.
It can be a tricky watch, but that's fine if we take advantage of a low-scoring snooze-fest.
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