Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight and sees more misery for Tottenham at Nottingham Forest.
Manchester City vs Everton, Boxing Day, 12.30pm
To beat this Manchester City you have to be brave with the ball in transition and show ruthlessness with your finishing.
Everton are not that team.
Sean Dyche's men are a tough nut to crack but are woefully toothless in attack and have failed to score in six of their last seven Premier League matches.
In that period they have the lowest expected goals return of any team and have created the fewest bigger chances. One goal should be enough for City to win this match, and they really need that.
The zero win on 11/8 at Sky Bet is a nice alternative to the outright 1/3 with a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace, Boxing Day, 3pm
No team has made more tackles in the Premier League since February 1 than Crystal Palace (709) and this encounter could be a tackling frenzy.
As well as contributing from an attacking point of view, Ismaila Sarr has also been stuck without the ball, with tackles soaring in recent weeks.
He has made at least one tackle in six of his last seven appearances, making ten tackles in total. The fact that he plays more centrally than in the past means that he encounters tight spaces and turnover opportunities, hence more tackles are made.
The 11/4 with Sky Bet for Sarr to register two or more tackles is a price to consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Fulham, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Despite both of these teams coming here after a 0-0 draw, goals should be on the menu.
Chelsea's games this season have averaged 3.67 goals per game and Fulham have scored in every away game this season, including scoring twice at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Boxing Day factor should also help the goals flow. In the last 18 Premier League matches played on December 26, there has been an average of four goals per match.
Perhaps the festive atmosphere in the stadium gets the game flowing at a faster pace, which in turn boosts goal production. Who knows?
Either way, the 4/5 with Sky Bet on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals should give punters a great run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
This is the game of the day, involving two top teams thanks to impressive results. They will both be hoping to drive towards the top four in the coming months, while there is the possibility of Manchester City's demise, Tottenham's problems and Manchester United's mediocrity.
If Villa play with the same swagger in midfield as they did against Manchester City, the 11/4 with Sky Bet on an away win could prove to be a great bet.
The axis of Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara with Youri Tielemans as an advanced player worked charmingly, with Tielemans especially flourishing in that role. His performance this season has been excellent: he has already provided six assists and Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer have created more chances than him this season (39).
It's 4/1 with Sky Bet, he picks up another assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The rise of Nuno Espirito Santo's side can be seen in the markets here, with Forest at 13/10 favorites to beat Tottenham, who are great fun but not a team to take seriously if they play in this current style. One area where Forest have the edge in this encounter is at centre-back, where Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo form an elite partnership.
The manager has built a team around their strengths and Murillo in particular is making his mark. I'm not sure there is a better all-round centre-back in the Premier League as it stands.
His threat in the attacking third is also relevant from a betting perspective, as his price of 5/2 with Sky Bet for two or more shots looks attractive. He has had at least one shot in eleven of his last twelve games, hitting the two or more lines four times. With Spurs' vulnerabilities from set pieces, he will likely threaten that shot line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Southampton vs West Ham, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The Saints battled their way to a hard-earned and deserved goalless draw at Fulham, restricting Marco Silva's side to an expected goals rating of 1.04. It was a performance that bore the stamp of Ivan Juric, despite not being officially in charge. His work at Torino, where they finished ninth last season before moving to Roma, was built on a solid defensive foundation. Only Inter Milan, Juventus and Bologna conceded fewer goals than Torino last season.
It's clearly worth being cautious with Saints betting in the new manager's early stages and while the overall Premier League figures scream profit for over 2.5 goalscorers, the sub-2.5 line here is on 6/5 with Sky Bet too big. to pass by.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Wolves vs Manchester United, Boxing Day, 5:30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Analyzing the statistics behind the latest results of both Wolves and Manchester United is why using such data is an important and intriguing part of making decisions about the outcome of football matches.
Wolves scored three goals from an expected goals figure of 1.11 from just eight shots, while United recorded a clean sheet in their 3–0 home defeat to Bournemouth despite creating 2.28 expected goals from 28 shots.
This tells us that despite the 3-0 win, we can't overstate the fact that Wolves convert a corner and that United may be heading in the right direction despite taking just seven points from six Premier League matches under Ruben Amorim.
The market certainly thinks so, as the away games here on 19/20 are priced at odds with Sky Bet. That's too short for me, but I wouldn't be surprised if United start to find some consistency in the coming weeks. Keep them on your side would be my advice.
PRE-PREDITION SCORE: 1-1
Liverpool vs Leicester, Boxing Day, 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Cricket score, incoming?
This could be a repeat of what Newcastle did against Leicester a few weeks ago when they beat them 4-0 in one of the most one-sided games of the season. Leicester simply camped in their own half, with no confidence or ability to withstand any pressure to get themselves on the pitch. It was wave after wave and ended with Newcastle putting up 27 shots, 11 on target and scoring four goals.
Trying to find bets on Liverpool's handicap or their overall over goal line is the right betting strategy, but prices are so tight because the market expects them to win this by three goals. That makes this game fiendishly difficult to find any hint of value. There could be a big thrashing on the line though, so Liverpool could face a -5 handicap, although ideally I'd like to be bigger than 7/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 6-0
Brighton v Brentford, Friday, 7.30pm
It's the guru derby of football betting. Owners Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have both made their fortunes by beating the betting markets using progressive models and have now built two of the best-run football empires in the world, especially in the case of Brighton, and I want to be with them here.
Brentford have lost 19 of their last 24 away games to Premier League teams and are a very one-dimensional and old team on the road.
The market likes them in certain areas, which always makes me think they are too short – and I think Brighton have a great chance of winning this game, especially as Brentford are missing their best player in Ethan Pinnock. In the 19 games without Pinnock in the Premier League since the start of the 22/23 season, their winning percentage has dropped from 40 percent to 15 percent.
However, I'm very greedy when it comes to backing downright short prizes, and I'm always looking for a boost where possible and I think in this case it's worth adding both teams to score for the victory in Brighton, because the price then goes to 7. /4 with Sky Bet. Both teams have scored in 14 of Brighton's last 15 games in all competitions. And if you had backed the opposition to beat Brentford and both teams by scoring in their last eight away games, you would have been a winner on seven occasions.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Brighton to win and both teams to score (7/4 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal v Ipswich, Friday, 8.15pm
“It's very clear that we're going to have to show a different side of us in the coming games,” said Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna after his team were torn apart by Newcastle.
If you read between the lines, it means Ipswich find themselves in a deep defensive block, frustrating and trying to stay in the game. It's a defensive structure that Arsenal have struggled with this season, particularly in the 0-0 draw against Everton.
It is doubtful whether Ipswich can repeat that level of organisation, but with this one-way game likely on the line, there are gambling opportunities that can be exploited with Arsenal's corner lines. I think they can get a healthy number here and Arsenal's 11/10 with Sky Bet for nine or more corners should come close if Ipswich can stay in the game early.
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