Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight and a 7/2 weekend double to attack.
Leicester vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
We benefited nicely from Cole Palmer getting fouled this season, but that ship has now sailed as prices have fallen. However, there is another mistake by Chelsea players that has caught my attention.
And that has been the aggressive nature of their centre-backs since Enzo Maresca took the job.
Both centre-backs are keen to win the ball when the opposition centre-forward sniffs at them and this leads to fouls being committed. Between Wesley Fofana and Levi Colwill, they have committed 35 fouls between them in their 11 Premier League games this season.
Of the eleven strikers who have faced Chelsea this season, they have been fouled a whopping 24 times – that's an average of 2.6 fouls per game. So step forward Jamie Vardy, who looks a great bet to make a mistake at least once on 10/11 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Jamie Vardy gets fouled at least once (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
If, like me, you've got your hands on betting slips for Arsenal to win trophies this season, then they need to get started – and quickly.
The Gunners have dropped 14 points in their last nine games, having lost just five in the previous 20, and have not kept a clean sheet in seven games.
Some will see this as a potential banana peel for Mikel Arteta's men, who are 1/3 for the home win with Sky Bet. However, I still believe in this team and their title credentials as they can point to genuine excuses during a brutal stretch of tough matches that saw key personnel missing such as Martin Odegaard.
Now it's time to put those excuses aside and start winning football games.
It won't be pretty. It won't be comfortable. But this is where Arsenal's season could get another boost with what would be their 2,000th top-flight win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
If you back 4/7 shots with Sky Bet like Aston Villa here you will quickly go broke.
Unai Emery is a masterful football manager but he has overachieved with this Villa team.
That's now starting to manifest itself in a larger sample size, with Villa winning just five of their last 15 Premier League games in two seasons and keeping just one clean sheet in their last 16 games. Emery is also on the verge of losing four games in all competitions for the first time in his managerial career. They are still overrated by the markets.
However, team news is crucial here as Eberechi Eze and Adam Wharton are both in a race to get fit.
Oliver Glasner has implemented a solid process and allows his teams to function well without possession, but they lack the edge that Eze and Wharton possess. If they both start, an away win at 4/1 with Sky Bet looks too expensive.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Bournemouth vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Bournemouth are the experts at dropping points and Brighton love to chase a match.
This means we're in for a blast on the south coast. Andoni Iraola's team have dropped 32 points from winning positions since the start of last season, including in their last game against Brentford where they took an early lead but lost the game 3-2.
Meanwhile, Brighton are the only team in the Premier League this season to have lost after conceding first, winning twice against Tottenham and Manchester City and salvaging a point in games with Nottingham Forest and Arsenal.
In what could be a high-scoring encounter, the 25/1, which would see Sky Bet win at Bournemouth at half-time and Brighton win at full-time, could be dealt a blow at a huge price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
Everton – Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Brentford is usually an easy choice for teams in need of a home win, but Everton under Sean Dyche are currently very unreliable to get results and, as always, the mood is one of frustration at Goodison Park.
However, the Bees are such poor travellers, having lost fifteen of their last nineteen Premier League games as they struggled to implement their powerful playing style.
The draw looks like an obvious call on 23/10 with Sky Bet from a clear perspective in a quiet betting round.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Fulham vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm
I think Fulham might have a special season.
Top half? Certainly.
Top six? At 7/1 with Sky Bet I'd be a player.
Top four? Don't give them a 1/25 discount.
This season could be one of those extraordinary cases where a team outperforms pre-season predictions and propel the Premier League side to the top.
It's already been a strange season given the structure of the rankings, which points towards a more competitive league – just four points separate third and thirteenth places. In seven of the last eight previous seasons, that difference in the same stage was at least nine points.
Fulham have picked up an impressive 18 points from 11 Premier League games and the underlying numbers behind those results are just as impressive, suggesting they should be even higher in the table.
And that strong position, according to that data, comes from the fact that they have won the expected goals battle in their last twelve games in all competitions, including the defeats to Manchester City and Aston Villa.
All this evidence shows that Marco Silva's men are putting in consistent levels of performance, limiting teams in their defensive process and creating good chances at the other end. If you keep that mantra going over the course of a season, you'll rack up a fair amount of points and challenge towards the top of the leaderboard.
Home win here and there's a good chance there will be plenty more to come between now and the end of the campaign. Dark horses indeed.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Man City vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Could four on the rebound become five for Pep Guardiola?
Tottenham have won five of their last nine Premier League meetings with Man City, showing a shrewd ability to subdue Guardiola's team. Moreover, their attack remains a dangerous animal.
Spurs are the top scorers in the league, have the highest number of expected goals without penalties, top the league table for possession won in the final third and, a key point for this match, have scored seven goals from fast breaks – the most from each team. That's City's kryptonite.
From a Spurs perspective, there are a lot of backup corners that stand out. The most important is Dejan Kulusevski who scores or assists at 2/1 with Sky Bet.
The Swede is simply dynamite when given space to work into through an opposition and was sensational against City in the Carabao Cup creating those transitions to burst past City's midfield and get Spurs into dangerous areas of the pitch .
He has scored seven goals in his last five games against Guardiola's side, including two assists in the 2-1 win recently, and has scored in his last three appearances at the Etihad Stadium.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Southampton vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Southampton remains a bad Christmas present. They break in the box.
The middle section is quite attractive and you can see what Russell Martin is trying to achieve, but at key moments in games, in key areas of the pitch, the Saints remain a weak side.
Liverpool will have to punish that soft underbelly at several points in this match, most likely from set pieces where Southampton are terribly poor at defending their penalty area.
They have conceded seven goals from set pieces this season, against a backdrop of 7.28 expected goals, so the numbers do add up. Curiously, Arne Slot's team have struggled to create many moments from their attacking set play, registering just 29 shots – the fewest of any team in such situations this season.
Nevertheless, in Virgil van Dijk they have a two-time winning aerial maestro who ranks third in first contacts from attacking angles (7) this season – only James Tarkowski and Gabriel have won more.
Van Dijk has already scored two headers this season and a third is believed to be on the way, with Sky Bet dangling at 14/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Ipswich vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
If past trends mean anything, Ruben Amorim's first game in charge could be a forgettable and low-scoring one.
But that's fine if we get some profit out of it.
The last eleven times a 'big six' team has appointed a permanent manager during a season, that manager's first game is usually low scoring as he gets to grips with his new players.
From a betting perspective, it is relevant that fewer than 2.5 goals were scored in eight of those eleven games.
Jurgen Klopp's first game for Liverpool ended 0-0 at Spurs, Mikel Arteta opened 1-1 at Bournemouth, Thomas Tuchel oversaw a 0-0 draw with Wolves on his bow while Chelsea boss and Antonio Conte started with a 0 -0 draw for Spurs at Everton.
These results indicate that there will be a new manager who will keep things very simple for his first game.
And the new man inherits a very tame Manchester United attack, who have scored just 18 goals in their last 16 Premier League games – that's an average of 1.13 goals per game. Of the ever-present Premier League teams at the time, only Everton averaged fewer goals per game.
The under 2.5 goals angle is a juicy bet to attack at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (11/8 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs West Ham, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
What is West Ham under Julen Lopetegui?
It's akin to David Moyes' football without the reckless counter-attacking style that led the club to some special places under his watch. Lopetegui's appointment is turning into one of the big mistakes of the summer.
In 2024, West Ham's defense conceded 35 goals in 14 Premier League games. That's an average of 2.5 goals per game and is the worst record of any Premier League team ever present at that time. I fully expect Newcastle to fill their boots here.
And Joe Willock seems too expensive to score a goal. His goal threat is still underestimated by the markets.
Since returning to the team three games ago, he has had seven of Newcastle's 34 shots, meaning he is responsible for 21 percent of all their shots. I expect him to come to the fore again in a game where Newcastle will see a lot of territory. The 4/1 on him scoring anytime with Sky Bet is a runner.
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