Fresh from tipping Ipswich to beat Bournemouth, our bet expert Jones Knows offers its insight into the Premier League weekend.
Everton vs Arsenal, Saturday 12.30 pm
Gabriel Martinelli. Do you remember him? The disastrous, all-action winger that consistently tore Premier League full-backs? Well, he is back from his season of struggles based on his performance in the 2-1 win over Fulham. He was immediately, he was dangerous and his number was impressive.
The assist he grabbed was one of the five chances he created for his teammates and as my colleague Nick Wright outlined in his excellent “Radar” column, Martinelli's Total of 19 one-on-one in the course of the game was his joint highest throughout the season. The Brazilian has now scored or helped in four of his last six games and it is a trend that is worth jumping on at the prizes. He is 5/4 with Sky Bet to score or to help here.
Score prediction: 0-2
Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Saturday 3 pm – Play Super 6 here!
It would be a mistake to read too much in the Matte Show of Crystal Palace in Southampton.
I prefer to judge them about a larger sample size and give them from a bit of tired performance after their FA Cup victory at Fulham. Since mid-November, the defensive process of Palace is based on expected goals against the fourth best in the Premier League at 1.15 per 90. Oliver Glasner's silk won the inverted fixture comfortably with 3-1 at the Amex and they can repeat the performance with 11/8 for home winning.
Score prediction: 2-1
Ipswich vs Wolves, Saturday 3 p.m. – Play Super 6 here!
After doing the company for me in midweek at 7/1 against Bournemouth, I stay on the tractor train.
Wolves are favorites for those who just don't feel good for me in a game that they don't have to win. A draw would be fine to keep the gap on nine points. That kind of mentality knows that a draw is a good result is dangerous against a team that has to win.
Wolves are also still without Matheus Cunha who is still suspended.
On paper it seems that they did not miss him and have taken seven points of nine, but their underlying attack process in those game shows they have struggled to create without him. In those three games against Everton, Southampton and West Ham, they lost the total expected goals against 1.9 versus 4.1. That is quite alarming for me based on the level of opposition with which they were confronted.
Ipswich to win on 17/10 with Sky Bet looks a great gamble.
Score forecast: 2-1 | Jones Knows' Best Bet: Ipswich to Win (17/10 with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3 pm – Play Super 6 here!
Jarrod Bowen's Tweak in position under Graham Potter has an important peak in his mistakes drawn data.
This positional change to play more centrally has won his mistakes through the roof, because he is involved in more of the crowds in the midfield area. He is polluted at least twice in all seven of his starts under Potter and in total he has signed 16 errors in those seven games.
In the meantime, Bournemouth has made the most mistakes of each team in the Premier League, because they are very aggressive in midfield, where they can be exposed as soon as a team beats the press.
However, it is only 4/7 with Sky Bet that Bowen is polluted at least twice, because the markets have noticed this trend, so adding less than 3.5 goals to the bet via the Builddet function brings the price to 5/4. The last nine games under Potter went under 3.5 and Bournemouth is low in trust, so goals must be scarce.
Score prediction: 1-1
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 5.30 pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 here!
There is such a fresh, revitalized feeling about Aston Villa.
Most of the time when assessing teams I like to draw the data for the entire season to assess a team and look for corners, but I think that many villas manage matches from earlier in the season, where she manages Champions League and provided a large lattern list, now pretty irrelevant.
It's all about the here and now analyzing Villa and I thought they were very impressive in Brighton.
During the season, Villa's defensive process on the road is actually the fifth worst of each team, with 1.75 expected goals against per match. But in Brighton they limited a team that scored for fun to only 0.9 expected goals and grabbed a clean slate.
Villa has not lost in Villa Park in the Premier League of Champions League for 19 games, since he loses Arsenal on 24 August.
If you get the 1-0 victory of Forest in Liverpool from the comparison and you are concentrating on their other seven games against top 10 teams away from home this season, they admit 2.7 goals per game in those competitions.
I think Villa wins this quite comfortably.
Score prediction: 3-0
Brentford vs Chelsea, Sunday 2 p.m.
Nicolas Jackson was missed by Chelsea.
Jackson showed against Tottenham that he offers Chelsea such a great basis to play, from his powerful running backlog to holding the ball to bring people like Cole Palmer into play.
His influence stacks on both the eye test and about what the data tells us. Without him for nine games, Chelsea only created an expected goals per 90 figure of 1.10 and scored only 1.25 goals per 90. It was also a soft series of matches that Leicester, Southampton and FC Copenhagen had played twice.
And when Jackson plays, Chelsea is on average 1.9 goals per game and takes 1.9 points per game. A huge peak.
Jackson has scored in the last two meetings with the bees and he can lead the lead by achieving another in an earlier on 100/30 with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-2
Fulham vs Liverpool, Sunday 2 p.m., Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 here!
Liverpool needs a maximum of 13 points from their remaining eight games to take the Premier League title.
Arne Slot plays the game very well – he has Liverpool very difficult to beat. Nothing flashy. Just very professional.
That is enough in this phase of the season, so is the position in which they are located.
The Slot team remains on a very impressive unbeaten run in the competition. It is now 26 games since they last tasted the defeat, it is the second longest unbeaten Premier League run of the club and their fourth longest undefeated competition run in the entire history of the club. Liverpool is also the only team in English football that was fired from home this season. An extermination from the road looks good at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
Jamie Carragher once noted that Diogo Jota is the best Premier League -Finisher from Liverpool – and I totally agree with him. Yes, even better than Mohamed Salah.
Jota's figures are back that theory. The Portugal Forward is on average a goal every 142 minutes in the Premier League for Liverpool – that is a better record than Michael Owen (143) and Robbie Fowler (159).
Jota scored the winner in midweek and I am always interested in supporting Jota to score when he looks so sharp and busy for the goal. He to score in a victory in Liverpool comes in at 100/30.
Score prediction: 1-2
Tottenham vs Southampton, Sunday 2 p.m.
With Ange-Ball now a thing of the past in Tottenham, even though he was still in a job, the prices for goals in Spurs competitions are crooked to data from the past.
Yes, this Tottenham team has had goals full of goals in the Ange Postecoglou era -for example between his first game that was the management and January 31 of this year, the total competition average for goals came to 3.6.
In the last eight games, however, their matches only have 2.38 goals per 90 on average and their attacking game has become very old.
With the season of Tottenham on the line in their next match against Frankfurt in the Europa League, it is easy to provide them that they are simply in the work mode for this one. All this makes the goals of less than 3.5 play on 8/11 with Sky Bet very attractive.
Score prediction: 1-0 | Jones Knows' Best bet: Less than 3.5 goals (8/11 with Sky Bet)
Manchester United vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30 pm, Live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6 here!
Based on the clear issues of Manchester United in attacks, they are impossible to be here for a price like 9/4 with Sky Bet, especially what we have seen in the last three halves of football from Manchester City.
In 135 minutes against Bournemouth and Leicester, they have only confronted one shot and total expected goals of 0.02. There was a clear sign of balance in the Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol partnership with Nico O'Reilly who looked on the left.
It would not surprise me if the city would win this derby without giving up.
However, Omar Marmoush To score at any time at 6/5 with Sky Bet is the better option for punishing.
He now scores in his last three games and has a total of six goals in his last six starts. And I just like how positive he is with the ball, always look ahead and likes to get shots away – he shot no less than nine against Leicester.
I assume that he will also be on penalties with Erling Haaland, of which I think it adds a little extra lead to that price.
Score prediction: 0-2
Leicester vs Newcastle, Monday 8 p.m., live on Sky Sports
Leicester placed an expected goals of 0.02 in the defeat in Manchester City. An extraordinary achievement.
It is the lowest by every TOP team team throughout the season – beating Newcastle's 0.04 against Crystal Palace.
Leicester has now lost 15 of their last 17 games in all competitions and are at a point of seven consecutive defeats for Premier League without scoring. That is the first time that happened in the history of the football club.
I'm not sure if playing at home will help them here – things can become ugly.
Newcastle should be able to score multiple goals and the way to support a value in that result is to put your confidence in Jacob Murphy to help on 9/4 with Sky Bet. He has eight assists in his last 20 starts for The Toon and has developed excellent chemistry with Alexander Isak.
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