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PSG’s expected struggle, Aston Villa favourable run: Has Champions League format created an unfair playing field?

Admin 2 hours ago

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We are halfway through the first installation of the new competition phase in the Champions League. What have we learned about the new format?

UEFA tore up the rules at the start of this season and abandoned the traditional eight groups of four in the group stage with a new 'Swiss' competition format of 36 teams.

The top eight teams in the competition automatically qualify for the last 16, while the teams finishing ninth to 24th will compete in a two-legged play-off to join the top eight in that round of the competition. teams to add.

Several voices within Sky Sports debated whether the new format works ahead of matchweek three – but one aspect that is now becoming more intriguing is the extent to which the current standings reflect the difficulty of matches for each of the fixtures. 36 teams involved.

Many spectators are already sold, advocating the idea of not playing the same team twice and pointing to the surprising results – namely Sporting's victory over Manchester City, Lille's victory over champions Real Madrid and Aston Villa's victory on Bayern Munich – as evidence in favor of the new format.

It has led to a scenario where Madrid – who were beaten at home by AC Milan last time out – are in increasing danger for their participation in the knockout rounds, especially if they were to record another poor result against Liverpool this week.

Madrid actually got the easiest draw among the Pot One clubs, with an average coefficient of 56,000.

But that makes it even more critical to compare how difficult one team might have compared to another team, who may even have been in Pot Four and not participated in a previous Champions League. So, looking back at September, who got spanked when the draw took place?

Well, based on the average five-year coefficient, Feyenoord was given the toughest set of eight games to negotiate. The Dutch club – who finished second in the Eredivisie last season – did not get off to the best start, losing 4-0 at home to Xabi Alonso's Bayer Leverkusen.

Facing an uphill battle to even qualify for a play-off spot, Feyenoord rallied to record victories at Girona and Benfica before their progress was derailed by a disappointing 3-1 home defeat to RB Salzburg.

It means their hopes are on the line as trips to Manchester City and Lille end home fixtures with Sparta Prague and Bayern Munich.

Of the top ten teams that statistically have the toughest games, only Inter Milan is currently in the top eight. Five of them are currently in the elimination spots between 25th and 36th.

Conversely, when we look at the teams with – on paper – the friendliest fixtures, it is striking that the Young Boys' number 1 have lost all four of their matches so far – but they still have away trips to Stuttgart and Celtic in between. home ties with Atalanta and Red Star.

In the previous format, losing your first four games would almost certainly mean elimination, but the Swiss side could still conceivably finish in the top 24 teams based on the extra games against relatively modest opponents.

The same can be said of current Austrian champions Sturm Graz, who are one place above them, but also on zero points from four games. Is this what the new format aimed to create? More games that matter?

There are other teams that have wasted no time in taking advantage of favorable matchups. Aston Villa won their first three games before suffering a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Club Brugge last time out.

But wins over Young Boys, a weakened Bayern Munich and Bologna have put Unai Emery's side in a strong position to at least reach the play-offs.

Of the ten teams that statistically have the easiest series of matches, three teams are currently in the coveted top eight: Villa, Monaco and Borussia Dortmund.

Atalanta are unbeaten and hovering just outside, while Celtic and Arsenal have both won two of their four games. In Celtic's case, the Scottish champions have won twice as many games as in their last two group stage appearances combined.

Brendan Rodgers' side will be confident of securing a place in the play-offs given their good run of games – with a home match against Club Brugge and then an away match against Dinamo Zagreb – despite a 7-1 defeat in Dortmund. Hosting Young Boys after the Christmas holidays almost feels like an unnecessary safety net.

The more Champions League football is played this season, the more we will learn about whether the new format will be considered a success in the long term.

Talk of the unknown in these opening rounds is always preceded by a longing for a frantic final series of games all played at the same time. Football's very own NFL RedZone.

But the skeptics will always point to the early lack of danger, with weakened sides tainting the supposed blue ribbon events. Liverpool's blistering start has made the visit of Real Madrid by far the least important priority this week.

No one at Arsenal – who have lost title in the Premier League – is now talking about the time they beat Paris Saint-Germain, whose problems were expected based on the fourth-toughest run of games – despite reaching the semi-finals last season. The Ligue 1 champions faced an average coefficient over eight matches of 69.625.

The dream of lifting the Champions League trophy has never felt so far from reality among the Qatari owners, largely based on how they have performed, but partly as a result of who they have played and because three of their remaining four matches have not yet been played. from home.

Does it matter where you finish in the qualifying spots?

Another discussion that will soon arise is whether it matters whether a team finishes first or eighth in the automatic qualifying spots.

Likewise, if finishing ninth is different from finishing 24th. The answer is 'yes'.

To ensure every match matters right through to the final day, UEFA has linked a club's final ranking to the knockout round, meaning where a club finishes affects their path.

The higher you are placed, the easier the route (based on the ranking in the competition) to the final. For example, clubs ranked 1 to 8 will play the second leg of their last 16 tie at home.

If a team finishes in ninth place, the disappointment of narrowly missing out on automatic progression to the last sixteen can be assuaged by being drawn against the team that finished in 23rd or 24th place.

Likewise, teams finishing first and second cannot play each other until the final; those third and fourth would avoid first and second until the semi-finals.

At this stage the teams will focus solely on collecting as many points as possible, but given the interconnectedness of everything, there may come a point where managers start to map out the best path to the final.

For now, those permutations are for another day, but the first four rounds have certainly raised questions about whether the new format has created an unfair playing field.

How many points are needed to qualify for the knockout rounds?

A new format brings new expectations to the Champions League this season, with clubs looking to the math to see how many points they need to qualify for the knockout rounds in the competition's stage structure.

The Opta supercomputer believes that 16 points out of a possible 24 – so five wins and a draw from eight matches or other combinations – would almost certainly be enough to finish in the top eight, guaranteeing you a place in the last 16 in the new year.

The data also assumes that 15 points – so five wins from eight games or other combinations – could be enough to sneak up to eighth place, with that number of points being sufficient in 73 percent of Opta's 50,000 simulations of the competition phase.

Fourteen points, so four wins and two draws or other combinations, will probably not be enough for a place in the top eight. The race to five wins will therefore probably be the goal for the biggest teams.

To finish in the top 24, which at least guarantees you a spot in the play-offs, Opta believes that 10 points (i.e. three wins and a draw, or other combinations) will almost certainly guarantee you a place in that round.

It means that teams that win in the opening round of Champions League matches will only need seven points from the remaining seven matches to guarantee themselves a play-off spot.

Nine points (i.e. three wins from eight games or other combinations) can be enough to finish 24th, while that number is sufficient in 69 percent of simulations.

But only eight points (i.e. two wins and two draws, or other combinations) are at risk of elimination, with that number of points being sufficient in only 16 percent of simulations.

Teams will be aiming for at least three wins out of eight to give them the best possible chance of reaching the knockout rounds of the Champions League.