Real Madrid in deep Champions League trouble after Liverpool defeat

It is highly unlikely that Carlo Ancelotti's team will qualify directly for the round of 16 after a third defeat at Anfield.

Real Madrid could be in serious danger of failing to qualify for the knockout stages of the 2024/25 Champions League after Wednesday's 2-0 defeat to Premier League leaders Liverpool at Anfield.

After five games, the LaLiga giants are down to six points, leaving them in 24th place out of 36 in the standings, the last position in which they can progress to the knockout stages of the play-offs as an unseeded team .

Given Madrid's status in the competition, the aim before the competition started was clearly to finish in the top eight and thus qualify for the round of 16 without the need for a play-off. They could still achieve that goal, although they have virtually no margin for error in their last three games and will be dependent on other results.

Who will Real Madrid play in their last three Champions League matches?

If they were to win their remaining matches against Atalanta (away), Salzburg (home) and Brest (away), they would finish on 15 points, giving them a 73% chance of finishing in the top eight, according to calculations carried out by an analytics company. Opta before the tournament started.

But how likely are they to collect the maximum number of points? Carlo Ancelotti's side have lost all three away games and are on the road for two of the last three. Atalanta, their next opponent on December 10, are undefeated in the Champions League, scoring 11 goals and conceding just once, and sit high in second place in Serie A.

To make matters worse, key forward Vinicius Jr. is expected to will not be fit again until next week, while Eder Militão and Dani Carvajal are long-term injury victims. However, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Rodrygo are likely to be recovered to play in the final stages of the competition.

French club Brest, their last opponent on January 29, have been the surprise package of the competition this season and Real Madrid have already suffered an unexpected defeat in France after being defeated by Lille on matchday 2.

The chance that Real Madrid will qualify for the round of 16 of the Champions League

According to those Opta statistics, a minimum of nine points is required to have a 69% chance of finishing in the top 24, with those ranked 9th through 24th in the knockout stages of the avoid play-offs. You would expect Los Blancos to achieve that goal by beating Salzburg at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on January 22, although 10 or 11 points would obviously give them a better chance of avoiding a shock exit (99% and 100 respectively % probability).

However, if they don't drop any points at all, they could be excluded from the automatic qualification for the last 16. Two wins and a draw in their last three matches would see them finish on 13 points, which Opta says puts them just 2 % would yield. to finish in the top eight.

A play-off to reach the round of 16 seems most likely, in which they could play against Celtic, Dinamo Zagreb or Feyenoord, but also against Bayern Munich, Manchester City or Juventus.