A UEFA simulation study offers Girona a lifeline and suggests the cut-off points needed to progress in the 24/25 Champions League.
A UEFA simulation study (conducted before the competition started) of the points accumulated at the end of the competition phase in the new Champions League suggests that the eighth-placed team will have around 17 points (17.1), a total currently is higher than that of Real Madrid. The research also offers a glimmer of hope for Girona if the Catalan side win their final two matches.
The UEFA report backs Carlo Ancelotti, who recently announced that his team will not finish in the top eight (and avoid the play-off round), with the governing body suggesting that 17 points (17.1 specifically) will be the ceiling for direct access to the round. of 16. As things stand, Barça, who are on 15 points, currently only need two more points to be in the top-8 (they have to play away against Benfica and at home against Atalanta); Atlético Madrid could also make progress with positive results against Leverkusen and Salzburg.
For Barça, the aim is also to finish in the top two and secure a better seeding place for the next stage, with current top-flight club Liverpool the only team mathematically guaranteed a place in the Round of 16. With two wins in their last matches, the Reds could end the stage with a hypothetical 24 points.
According to the research, Girona still has reasons for hope. UEFA's simulation sets the cut-off point for progress at 7.6 points. Míchel's men have three points. If they beat Milan and Arsenal, they will always go through with nine. However, this is where the simulation falters, as 24th place is currently occupied by Dinamo Zagreb with 8 points, which is 0.4 more than UEFA indicates in its report.
Another key position in the 36-team table is 16th place (and above), which allows the teams in this section to play the second leg of the play-off to gain access to the last 16 at home. UEFA puts this at 12.1 points, with Barça having already collected the necessary points while Atlético is on exactly 12 points. Real Madrid would need a win in the two remaining games (Salzburg and Brest) and a good goal difference to potentially get into that group of teams easily.
Logically, as the study is a simulation, there is always room for error, but it certainly provides a set of guidelines and gives an indication of where teams stand at this stage of the competition, with only two rounds of games outperforming the competition stage. .
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